[simple guy]

24.30 ish was my quote for max pain retrace... we hit 24.32 earlier in day, then down big time... then back up to past that at the close...

So, with that in mind...

So many alternate possiblities now, my head is spinning

A few things to ponder though

If we rally into the "fibonacii turn window" of 2/19.... then the next move is DOWN, as opposed to UP

The turn windows are usually plus or minus 2 days.... so thats the 17th to the 21st range...

If we rally on Tuesday.... again.... then the turn window may be pointing to big downside after that.... just a thought....

I found some of my annotated chicken napkin scratch E wave targets today that I had written out...

This is what they said:

Wave 1 27.47 to 24.87
Wave 2 24.87 to 25.84
Wave 3 (1) 25.84 to 24.34
(2) 24.34 to 25.51
(3) 25.51 to assumed 23.09

Well... we got to 23.30.... 147% retrace.... pretty close to 150% retrace....


So Im going to assume.... another 50% retrace is 24.42.... 61.8% is 24.65, that would end wave (4) of 3

Then wave (5) of Wave 3 would be about 61.8% retrace down to 22.93

22.93 is about 922 NDX

The problem.... wave (5) can be all over the map.... could be 138% of waves 1-3, or more , or less...

If anyone can help me out with what wave 5's typically are as a % of 1-3 move.... I would appreciate it....

[wrecked him]

'SG

Replied to your post on IDS

Regards

WH

[wrecked him]

P.S.

Thank you for all your time and effort.

It is appreciated

[GregFokker]

wrecked him, on Feb 14 2003, 05:50 PM, said:

`SG

I know of 3 types of 5th waves


Extended 5

5 should be at least equal to the price distance from beginnning of 1 to end of 3 added to the end of 4. but max length should not be greater than 261% of the length from beginning of 1 to 3.

Non extended

generally = to wave 1 (or commonly 61.8%)

5th wave failure

only possible if 3rd extended. not common as it indicates exceptional counter trend power and a long term top or bottom

Fischer also has a fibonacci system where the distance from beginning of wave 1- end of wave 3 is 1 unit and the distance from the top of 3 to the top of the 5th wave is .618 units. Or the distance from the bottom of wave 1 to the top of wave 1 is 1 unit and the distance from the top of wave 1 to the top of wave 5 is 1.618 units.

Hope this helps
Regards

WH

Here is Wrecked Him's reply from IDS. Let's take some time, relax, and figger it out. TGIF, says Fokker

[simple guy]

Got that

Well...

Best I can figure is my minuette wave 3 ended at 23.30, that looks like the case

Its now retracing in a major wave 4, which so far has shot past 38.2%, and just past (at the close) 50%. So, best guess is it hits 61.8% or 78.6% hysterical (again) retrace.

Thats 24.65 or 25.01 ish.... amazing... but possible.

That said, since minuette wave 3 was 147% of Wave 1.... it could call for an extended wave 5.

Bottom line: 24.65 to 25.01 is possible early next week... though not necessary.

ALso, THERE IS NO WAY WE ARE MOVING UP BIG TIME FROM HERE.... the 3rd wave started at 27.47 on the QQQ.... and it MUST get down in the 20-21 range to be considered a reasonable 3rd wave....

Retraces have been 78.6% commonly it seems... amazing.

Normally that is NOT the case, so my retraces up targets have been off....

Im being stubborn... but Im still looking for MUCH LOWER numbers to come.... so Im staying short.

Today hurt on paper for sure....

[simple guy]

Just so y'all know it aint just me who is confused

Steve Hochberg from EWI tonight... a brief cut and paste

Our most important indicator, the Elliott wave pattern, provides no help. The near-term pattern is ambiguous. That is, the pattern can be acceptably labeled several different ways that would imply differing conclusions to the short-term market action. The most I can say tonight with respect to the waves is that the rally since yesterday's lows (7629 in the Dow and 806 in the S&P) does not look impulsive. Even though the move is sharp in pitch and ascent, the internal subdivisions are very choppy, much more characteristic of an upward correction. While prices remain below Tuesday's highs, our key resistance levels (7985 in the Dow, 843 in the S&P), today's rally did carry further than I anticipated. The immediate trend may STILL be down, but prices must start to decline shortly after next Tuesday's opening.

Would line up with pop to 24.65 or 25.01... then a downmove immediately after... otherwise, I will have lost complete clue on the waves.... a rare occurence...

[simple guy]

SP bear trend fully intact kids...

600 a target range...

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[simple guy]

1400 ticks today... nuts

A good comment I found off the Prudent Bear board

Quote

I found this comment interesting onTraders TalkInstead of panic selling we got panic buying today. Tick +1,360, which is one of the highest in history. If you are not short this market for some strange reason, short it now (today).

Entre, I like your analysis. As far as Tick is concerned, we are looking at similar things. Intermediate-term declines have never stopped without several days of -1,000 tick. Usually -1,400 is required a few times. So far this 130 point S&P decline produced none.

Still a beautiful trend.

[simple guy]

Lets also keep it REAL SIMPLE

Regarding the NASDAQ

1470 to 1260 wave 1 (from the Jan 13-14 top)
1260 to 1341 wave 2 (1341 likely to come, a 38.2% retrace)

and THEN

1340 to 1002... 161.8% of wave 1.... and end of wave 3 (with 4 and 5 to come)

Makes alot of sense now doesnt it kids? 1002 is the October lows area....

It would also have my QQQ target in the low 20.xx range come into play...

Its crystal clear to me, dont lose your head......

Another 2% plus to come on the upside. Another 25% plus from there on the downside...

2% upside... 25% downside... you can guess where my $$ is.

[simple guy]

May I also highly highly advise you read this essay by a man whom I greatly respect

His targets are 15 on the QQQ and 865 on the NAS... below mine... but with uncannily good reasoning...

Not to mention, the VXN index, which may be breaking out to the upside from a bullish wedge (this is a good thing if you are a bear)

This also makes sense with my 1341 NAS target, followed by a move to 1002 after that...

http://www.321gold.c...lton021403.html

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[Ned38]

Gotcha

[PileDriver]

Not one IT indicator has issued a buy signal, in fact all are still on solid sell and still pointing down hard, even after today's activity. Some have even steepened as of today. I won't list them here. Hopefully you know what I am talking about.

The downtrend is intact. Period.

I wouldn't be surprised by an early morning hysteria pop on Tuesday with Maria having her opening bell orgasm, especially if nothing happens over this long touted "event" weekend, but then a dramatic reversal that day or the next.

Remember what 2/20 +/-2 days is. A rally into this date is not what the bulls should be rooting for.

12.5:1 profit/loss ratio sounds good to me SG!

[WillytheBooh]

SG,

Nothing makes sense unless the obvious is not so obvious... Perspective is what you have shown in the past saves the day and though I myself now struggle with a dozen different count scenarios for the next 10 trading days when viewed over the next 2-4 weeks ALL scenarios point down hard except one. The one was already discussed and was also shown by a Bontchev graph where we are now in a multiweek C of an ABC correction which began with the October lows and which for now looks plausible because the market needs to do what it can to shake out the clingon shorts..
That count is not valid BECAUSE WAVE #3 is underway... however I believe that the subdivisions are clearer now as wave i of 3 ended thrusday as an ending diagonal... you know the count that Hochberg has see sawed with 3 times already... from thursday I believe we have rallied into today and will for at least 5-8 days though I heavily favor the shorter of the two... that would mean we will rally into the next STRONG fib turn window and that that reversal would actually trigger wave iii of 3 and your 6% dump days etc.... I also believe that much damage will happen in the NASDAQ because this wave 5 will be extended...............
I have been following the NASDAQs waves now for 3 years and the price action this week just does not feel like a third wave let alone the third wave of the decade..... I am risking the 12% profit that is left in my short positions (some were stopped out to protect some of the profit) and will look to add and fully leverage my short position into next Friday... That will be painful but the waves are saying that this is the last opportunity to get in safely.. There is a possibility that we crash early in the week so I would rather give back the market the piece I shorted from it rather than have Mr. Market spook me out of the greater gains that the wave sare pointing too... great work as always

All wavers have that silly look on their face only if they look too much in the short term... as you have indicated a few weeks out it is obvious that this market is set for a NASDAQ of triple digits and sooner than most people think...
At least that is how this willythebooh sees it...

http://crucialforum....n_down=0&page=0

Hanging in because the honey jar is teetering
WtB

[MrHanky]

Thanks sg,I don't think I'm being a stubborn bear here.I firmly believe this rally ends pdq.There is not one chart that convinces me of alot of upside from here.

If I'm wrong I will have deal with it.Jams this severe are not the signs of a bull market,it's a sign of outright desparation.