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Op/Ex week stupidity


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Posted

I just think we had a capitulation of the shorts in the afternoon,leaning towards a top here but I am clueless at this point.....

 

This COULD be very dangerous for the bulls right here,all the shorts have covered already.....

Posted

I wouldn't say all the shorts have covered. Lots of very good reasons to be short right now.

 

The swing traders are making a killing.

Posted

I'm a rube... Blew all my ammo late last week early this week.

 

Cannot see S&P going above 1212-1214...

 

 

I can see the S&P going above the 200 day MA.

 

The market isn't even doing anything here except violently swinging between 1150 and 1200.

 

And no rally is lasting more than 8 days.

 

 

Posted

I wouldn't say all the shorts have covered. Lots of very good reasons to be short right now.

 

The most important reason being that we are in a severe bear market.

 

 

 

Posted

RDEN, WYNN and GMCR all traded mostly in the red today. Gone from outperformers to underperformers in the last week.

Posted

I don't know what it is... I lost quite a bit of money this week. Got a cold... Still havn't recovered.

 

But for some reason PBR has never tasted so good. :)

Posted

Wow, I went outdoors to clear weeds and came back to see we hit 1200. I certainly didn't see this coming. My rear-view mirror take on the action is below, which suggests we have made a top. Of course, I have already said that multiple times and been wrong every time.

 

For me, the good news is that the banks are very weak on this rally. I still have profits left on my short entry, so it could be a LOT worse for me.

post-647-13160330201815.gif

Posted

Wow, I went outdoors to clear weeds and came back to see we hit 1200. I certainly didn't see this coming. My rear-view mirror take on the action is below, which suggests we have made a top. Of course, I have already said that multiple times and been wrong every time.

 

For me, the good news is that the banks are very weak on this rally. I still have profits left on my short entry, so it could be a LOT worse for me.

 

Well, the most recent WTFRFH was weaker from the prior one, so I guess that's bearish.

 

BKX has to punch through 40 to get us to the 200 day MA, I think.

Posted

In the bigger picture since early August, the SPX futures graph below shows a rounded top which I still think will end in a waterfall decline. So I am still comfortable holding shorts even if there is more rally left in SPX.

post-647-13160335183191.gif

Posted

In the bigger picture since early August, the SPX futures graph below shows a rounded top which I still think will end in a waterfall decline. So I am still comfortable holding shorts even if there is more rally left in SPX.

 

This seems like the most likely outcome here.

 

I think we would have hit the 200 day MA if were were going to hit it by now.

 

The only thing that can change the outcome here is QE 2.5 or QE 3.

 

That would just create another up-leg in a bull market that would then promptly fail once the stimulation was removed, so it would be an easy short.

Posted

I don't know what it is... I lost quite a bit of money this week. Got a cold... Still havn't recovered.

 

But for some reason PBR has never tasted so good. :)

sometimes ya just gotta drink 'em purty

post-2457-13160339988299.png

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