MrHanky Posted September 1, 2011 Report Posted September 1, 2011 Complacentcy abounds with the VIX unchanged.Everyone expects the dippers to pile in near SPX 1200.....
DrStool Posted September 1, 2011 Report Posted September 1, 2011 What The Market Wants, Government and Fed Can’t Give September 1, 2011By Lee AdlerAaron Krowne of ML-Implode.com, Russ Winter of Winter Watch, and the Wall Street Examiner’s Lee Adler discuss the speculation about what the Fed and government will do next, what the impacts might be, and why they can’t do any of it. Lee reports on bad news from the Treasury on upcoming supply, and falling withholding tax collections signaling recession. This is a subscriber only podcast. If you are not a subscriber, click here to access the most recent free podcast posted on Friday, August 19.
shorty Posted September 1, 2011 Report Posted September 1, 2011 Complacentcy abounds with the VIX unchanged.Everyone expects the dippers to pile in near SPX 1200..... pile drivin' starts at 1200.....1075 by opex
swordfish Posted September 1, 2011 Report Posted September 1, 2011 s: http://mbewtrader.blogspot.com/
Scully Posted September 1, 2011 Report Posted September 1, 2011 I think I am with Shorty on this one. We should go down to the bottom of the channel in the first chart below, and maybe bounce for a day off SPX 1140. After that, we should push through to new lows. On the second 10 day daytime only chart, it is a lovely, textbook rounded-top upside-down parabolic bear market rally. The daily declines should steepen from here. I was slightly early with my short entries, but I was a bit afraid the decline would start without me because of the big Treasury settlements yesterday and today.
Thales Posted September 1, 2011 Report Posted September 1, 2011 Don't worry about it Scully, You've made me money .
Pretzel Logic Posted September 1, 2011 Report Posted September 1, 2011 That little a.m. spike high may have been wave v of iv to complete the rally... or we may see one more slightly higher high (all assuming the wave iv hypothesis is correct). Alternate count and larger rally still can't be ruled out. A bounce to a lower high from right in this neighborhood would set up a nice head and shoulders on the 15 minute. A bounce and lower high from the bottom channel would set up a much larger H/S. A break above or below the channel implies a move of about 100 points SPX from the break, which would line up nicely with my 1050 +/- target from weeks ago.
MrHanky Posted September 1, 2011 Author Report Posted September 1, 2011 I stepped out to go pick up a snack,was walking down Las Vegas Blvd and found $100 bill on the ground.Drinks are on me!!!!!! And I agree that we see SPX 1050 sooner than later
Thales Posted September 1, 2011 Report Posted September 1, 2011 Ok... so I havn't contributed anything to the board yet. I'm not great at pretty charts. So I will just post my targets. I follow S&P 500, Russel 2000, and the VIX. My target on the the VIX is now 41 for weekly and 43.35 for interday. This should happen within the next two and a half weeks(my analysis shows 3 weeks but I'm tempted to bump it up slightly). Just as likely is a retracement to 45 interday(alot quickler... like 5 trading days). These two really just depend on the frequency/period. Of course there is allways the Zombie apocalypse scenario... VIX = 65... with a final target of 90ish interday... This is all based on the fact the Vix 30-31 held. I will endeavor to make my charts pretty and post them.
JonLaw Posted September 1, 2011 Report Posted September 1, 2011 Here's something with absolutely no predictive value, but still nice and bearish: There has been no significant rally in the S&P 500 lasting more than 8 days since April. Yesterday was day 8 of the bear market rally. stockcharts.com
DrStool Posted September 2, 2011 Report Posted September 2, 2011 Ok... so I havn't contributed anything to the board yet. I'm not great at pretty charts. So I will just post my targets. I follow S&P 500, Russel 2000, and the VIX. My target on the the VIX is now 41 for weekly and 43.35 for interday. This should happen within the next two and a half weeks(my analysis shows 3 weeks but I'm tempted to bump it up slightly). Just as likely is a retracement to 45 interday(alot quickler... like 5 trading days). These two really just depend on the frequency/period. Of course there is allways the Zombie apocalypse scenario... VIX = 65... with a final target of 90ish interday... This is all based on the fact the Vix 30-31 held. I will endeavor to make my charts pretty and post them. What do you mean you haven't contributed? I think your posts have been great. Thoughtful, concise, and clear! Keep them coming!
DrStool Posted September 2, 2011 Report Posted September 2, 2011 I corresponded with Mr. Evans-Pritchard today pointing out a minor thing in his article today and heard back from him. Moving up in the world!
capitall Posted September 2, 2011 Report Posted September 2, 2011 I corresponded with Mr. Evans-Pritchard today pointing out a minor thing in his article today and heard back from him. Moving up in the world! Congrats on your new found fame, Doc.
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