swordfish Posted April 14, 2011 Report Posted April 14, 2011 missed the forecast:? GS EPS:8,52 consensus: 8,09
swordfish Posted April 14, 2011 Author Report Posted April 14, 2011 From ubs (link in ids) Weak Semiconductors … an Early Warning Indicator!! In Q1 we highlighted several times the leading indication of semiconductors for the overall market. Almost every bigger market top in the last 15 years has been led by a major divergence of the SOX index versus the SPX. It is interesting to see that the SOX has been strongly underperforming the broader market rally for a few weeks and even last week’s merger talk wasn’t able to break this underperformance. Basically, with the break of the September outperformance trend it seems the SOX is undergoing a larger trend change relative to the market. However, if this is the case, it’s obvious that the sector is in danger of forming a major divergence in absolute terms versus the SPX and, if so, it would in fact be the first real negative structural break in the market, which would finally give us growing conviction that the SPX is on its way into an important top. Conclusion: Semiconductors are early cyclicals and continued relative weakness versus the SPX is structurally negative. In this context it is interesting to see that on Friday there was also a meaningful reversal in the transport sector. If we get more of these signals in the next few weeks, it would give us growing conviction that the US market is in fact on the way into an important peak, which would be fully in line with our cyclical projection of a major Q2 top. Sell semiconductors relative to the SPX. A daily close below 430 would be initially negative and a break of the March low at 410 would be outright bearish. nice chart, page 4 sox vs sp500 correlation:
swordfish Posted April 14, 2011 Author Report Posted April 14, 2011 goog down 5% AH: on 550 now (not on chart). 5 months chart:
Trader Joe Posted April 14, 2011 Report Posted April 14, 2011 goog down 5% AH: on 550 now Bullshit! That can't be right...the guy on CNBC yesterday said it was going back to $600 on yearnings and I should BUY You are wrong, and an idiot!
DrStool Posted April 14, 2011 Report Posted April 14, 2011 Somebody just sent me an email that said Joey Bagodonuts had died in Savannah GA. Didn't say how he knew that.
Goldmember Posted April 14, 2011 Report Posted April 14, 2011 From ubs (link in ids) Weak Semiconductors … an Early Warning Indicator!! nice chart, page 4 sox vs sp500 correlation: UBS accumulation. Classic. Just like Pimpco shorting T-bonds!
swordfish Posted April 14, 2011 Author Report Posted April 14, 2011 regarding CDE, http://www.zerohedge.com/article/will-silver-surge-following-nationalization-bolivias-silver-mines-president-evo-morales where is jickass (sorry if I spell that not correctly) where is Chicago Bear?
Trader Joe Posted April 14, 2011 Report Posted April 14, 2011 Somebody just sent me an email that said Joey Bagodonuts had died in Savannah GA. Didn't say how he knew that. Jebuzz H If that's true I'm 2 for 2 Ref: My posts on Matt Simons a day or two before he decided to go on a permanent swim
swordfish Posted April 14, 2011 Author Report Posted April 14, 2011 Moody - dont worry about UST supply :blink: full report: http://www.scribd.com/doc/53020361/Moody-s-Analytics-Has-QE2-Overstayed-Its-Welcome#fullscreen:on
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