Guest Posted March 23, 2003 Report Posted March 23, 2003 Hello folks, I spent a lot of time, looking at lots of charts. Too tired to post any; besides some of them are proprietary indicators. Just the conclusions. First, the bad news. I am sorry to say, but we're nowhere near an intermediate-term top. This bear market rally has legs and will continue for quite a while. At least to mid-April, and even then the distribution phase that would follow might go marginally higher. Now the good news. We have either made or are very close to making a short-term top. Various indicators are at the states they were during the December 2002 and August 2002 highs. I am not 100% sure about the very short term (i.e., I can't promise you a down day on Monday) - but the next week should be mostly down. Even a re-test of the lows is possible, although unlikely. It would be wise to use the pull-back to exit any short positions one might still have, because more upside should follow. Expect the pull-back to go to COMPX 1355-1360. Maybe as low as 1320, if the bears are lucky. Too early to give any reliable particular targets for the upside, but nothing in the 1500-1900 range would surprise me. Regards, Vesselin
Guest yobob1 Posted March 23, 2003 Report Posted March 23, 2003 Fundamentals would suppport those time frames. Bears are probably going to be fairly quick to take profits as they occur given the recent ass-whipping the bulls have given them, so that will cap the downside to a degree. We are probably going to have more "surprising" negative pre-announcements as the depth of the short-falls in revenues is revealed in conjunction with updates in the general economic quagmire that we have recently entered. I think the upside will be constrained by that possibility. After Q1 earnings start coming in (and everyone beats by a penny their recently slashed estimates) it will be the normal buy the rumor sell the news pattern. Maybe then the relentless suction of gravity will again resume control.
PileDriver Posted March 23, 2003 Report Posted March 23, 2003 Vesselin 100% with you on that. ST indicators extrememly overbought with 5 waves up looking complete. but IT indicators now bullish and improving. I'm losing my bear funds on long overdue ST pullback and going long for a brief trading move until Bradley top date in ~June. :grin:
MaxxPain Posted March 23, 2003 Report Posted March 23, 2003 Could be. I'm mostly just watching the show. I expected some kind of rally, but not another rocket ride to hell. Looks alot like last October and even bonds are behaving the same. The love fest with overvalued paper continues. The players just switch from one type of paper to the other. The Ass&Pee would have to get above 950 to really make me believe there is anything significant happening here. When in doubt stay out. I noticed the QQQ and AMGN are underperforming the Ass&Pee the last couple days. Ho Ho Ho
mksloth Posted March 23, 2003 Report Posted March 23, 2003 Finally, some comforting words! Thanks Vess!
strikerm3 Posted March 23, 2003 Report Posted March 23, 2003 thanks for all the work bont! Many thanks!
DogBoy Posted March 23, 2003 Report Posted March 23, 2003 You're spot on Vesselin. And that's coming from someone who has been quite critical of your analyses in the past (especially last summer). I also think the upside is rather limitied as well, 1500 on the naz, 965 on the S&P. I don't think it's a new bull market as Hans Hans Hans Hans Brinker suggest. After May the Bearz should be back in "the groove" until next fall where we'll see lower lows again. So far this year is a carbon copy of last year except for a 2 week shift in time frame. We seem to running about 2 weeks later his year. Unless something unexpected happens (most likely on the Bear side) I expect the saying for US bears to be: Go Short in May and in October Go Away. SadAss is finished especially after the POW scene today. That said I think the peace that follows the War wil be anything BUT. The Arabs aren't going to stand for the creation of a US satellite state in their midst. Short term I see a big win in Iraq, long term steady attacks and a drain on the US economy. And this corresponds precisely with your (Vesselin's) market progosis. The hangover that follows the win in Iraq when we find out that though Arabs didn't like Sadass they really don't like us either will be a big one for the US. The idea that your going to create some kind of pro-west pro-Israel Arab state is completely absurd. This will work out bad for Israel and for US. Soon the Israelis will find out that those old corrupt dictators were a lot less dangerous that trying to occupy an Arab country. Corrupt people just want their shit left alone and as long as you don't try to mess with them usually do little harm. Zealots though are REAL dangerous types. We should have stuck with the Corrupt Ole' Bastard model for the Middle East leadership.
Guest Posted March 23, 2003 Report Posted March 23, 2003 Ha, just finished inspecting Doc's Anals. His analysis basically agrees with mine - short-term top in place, pull back, another rally - although, of course, he is much more thorough and precise, as usual. It's always comforting when two analyses based on different techniques agree in their conclusions - although the fact that so many people expressed agreement with me here is starting to worry me a bit... :wink2: Regards, Vesselin
Guest Posted March 25, 2003 Report Posted March 25, 2003 Most of the Dickarms charts in my forum suggest that a technical bounce is coming within the next 1-3 days. However, longer-term indicators suggest that the pull-back is not over yet. Nevertheless, I stick with my opinion that this is just a pull-back in the context of a longer-term bear market rally. To summarize, the outlook is: Very short term (1-3 days): bullish Short term (1-2 weeks): bearish Intermediate term (1-3 months): bullish Long term (1-2 years): very bearish Regards, Vesselin
Guest Posted March 30, 2003 Report Posted March 30, 2003 OK, calling the short-term top the last week and the bounce on Tuesday was easy. Now, however, the picture is somewhat muddled... I spent the weekend looking at various charts and indicators - and I can't form a definite opinion. Most of the indicators are neutral to slightly negative. As an example of the uncertainity - Bretz TRIN-5 gave a short-term Buy signal, while the 21-dma of the put/call ratio gave a Short signal. And these are just two examples; there are scores of indicators that are giving contradictory or neutral signals right now. So, my guess is that we still have unfinished work to the downside before another leg up starts. I emphasized "guess". I am not sure at all. I expect the COMPX to fall to 1360 at least. 1340-1350 is also likely. However, straight up from where we are wouldn't surprise me, either. Use COMPX 1320 as an indicator that my guess is wrong - if we fall below that level, it would mean that my "most likely" scenario is wrong. Other scenarios come into play then, with the more likely one being a re-test of the recent lows before another leg up and the less likely one being a fall to much lower lows. Regards, Vesselin
simple guy Posted March 30, 2003 Report Posted March 30, 2003 FWIW SG waves thread Im pointing to 1352, 1339 areas on the NAS to end wave C down. Then a 5 wave move up to above the March 21 highs...to finish the ABC corrective.... Basically jives with you Vess... downside to complete the c of the abc B wave.... and then upside to complete the entire larger 3-4 week A B C pattern...
Captain's Log Posted March 30, 2003 Report Posted March 30, 2003 Captain's log March 30 : Captan Krock of US spacedout Enterprise. We are orbiting the planet Gullible where it is inhabited by a strange race called sheeple. Our studies have shown sheeple have a herding tendancy and for reasons unbeknown, spend their existance chasing pieces of paper called stocks which acts as an alternative form of savings. Since the sheeple smell of decaying S+P, our suspicions are these stocks have been poisoned with Klingons from the Universe Wallstreet, who have plans to take over their money. The sheeple don't know it but the only way to avoid being contaminated by Klingons is to have a hype free wipe. Unfortuntaly, the Smoothy paper mined from the depths of Wallstreet, just isn't up to it. Inputs from Spock says the sheeple's behaviour is highly illogical and they want to move in waves. Our analysis suggests we should direct them in the short term with a wave C up. (No idea what Spock is talking about). He also says we need to overcome all wave C resistance to avoid a chain reaction that will lead to the stocks demise and money famine. Scottie Greespan say that he'll do his best to keep the wave C going with the booster Dollars borrowed from other planet, but believes, the enterprise can't take much more captain. When Dollar stops increasing, over she'll go. Admiral Doc's Anals indicates a Swup of dollar and Intelligence gathered from the crapship Prechter also back this up where Dollar is in process of its own corrective ABC cycle to the overall bear direction. If she goes, Dollars will be leave the Planer Gullible en force back to their original mother planets. (Euroland and Asia). A report from Bones 3M McCoy says the Sheeple godess called Mariah is on lifesupport and doesn't expect her to make it. The problem is she's had too many finance inspired orgasms that have left her with credibility deficit syndrome. He's giving her daily plunge protection sapositories together with some news spin asprins. She takes it all with a manic smile, but there's not much more he can do. Lt Uhura-Efiku advises that with so the potential for the unknown happening, we set our phasors to stun as the sheeple start realising their finances are dissapearing before their eyes. The date of May we think is critical. Our plan is to initiatiate the derivative overdrive and go into economic hyperspace. However, Mr Sulu says be very carefull of the black hole called Fibonacci, that we can't see. If we get into its gravity, we'll be sucked in and we are doomed. Beam me up Scottie.
Guest Posted March 30, 2003 Report Posted March 30, 2003 bontch... What, in your opinion, will lead this intermediate rise? Homestake
sniff Posted March 31, 2003 Report Posted March 31, 2003 I see absolutely nothing to brace this market up. Sure we might get a little blip up during earnings season, after a fib pull-back...... any bounce up will be a whimpy bounce....... Notice how bear markets rally, ... spike at the bottom and roll-over slowly at the tops....... so what's new? the chart has to prove it to me, so will remain a bear until price at least gets a higher, high on the Naz daily.
Guest Posted March 31, 2003 Report Posted March 31, 2003 bontch...What, in your opinion, will lead this intermediate rise? I have no idea; I play mostly the indices via ETFs. Mainly the QQQs but also others occasionally. Regards, Vesselin
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