Bears Staggered as Bulls Spring To Life

[DrStool]

If one of you intrepid data diggers could help me out here, I would gladly pay you back on Tuesday.

 

One of the key issues here is that the Fed will only accept AAA rated MBS that are NOT on credit watch. We know that the AAA rating is crap, but if you can find some data that would throw some light on how much of that stuff is on Watch, this would be most helpful. Is most of it on credit watch, just some, or very little. That is the primary determinant of what the Fed will and won't take, I think.

 

Furthermore, if any of the collateral offered is downgraded, then the Fed will put it back to the borrower and they would have to replace it with good paper.

 

I got this directly on talking to an official at the Fed on an off the record basis. I got through by telling them I was a reporter for the Wall Street Examiner, and guess what. IT WORKED!!!!

 

:lol:

[DrStool]

Just my 2 cents......

 

In 2001 we had an assblast right at 2250...then went up to and just beyond the 50 DMA......we may see that happen....OR we may just make it back to the 2250 level and then break down further from there....I don't know - and neither do they...

 

 

 

Hope that helps? 

650557[/snapback]

 

 

I think you are channeling LeeWhee.

 

God I miss that guy. Can't we just bring him back for a little while?

[Phil Late Show]

Thanks Bung,

 

I was really just musing on what seems to be a universal consensus among bulls and bears alike that we go up from here in the immediate future (days), semantics of whether we've made an IT bottom or are experiencing a short-lived bear-market rally aside.

 

Is it possible that when everyone is expecting something that it can actually happen? Is it that easy? If so, everyone should be long right now, right?

 

All this on an announcement from the Fed of an operation that doesn't materially occur until 2 weeks from now. Am I wrong in thinking that this does nothing to solve any margin/credit problems that might come to a boil prior to these funds hitting the market?

 

Sincerely,

 

A disgruntled short-dated put holder. (Yes, I am aware, simple option plays are mere gambling... but so is holding any sort of instrument, including Treasuries, when you're subject to surprise intervention like this.)

[Mies van der Rump]

If one of you intrepid data diggers could help me out here, I would gladly pay you back on Tuesday.

 

One of the key issues here is that the Fed will only accept AAA rated MBS that are NOT on credit watch. We know that the AAA rating is crap, but if you can find some data that would throw some light on how much of that stuff is on Watch, this would be most helpful. Is most of it on credit watch, just some, or very little. That is the primary determinant of what the Fed will and won't take, I think.

 

Furthermore, if any of the collateral offered is downgraded, then the Fed will put it back to the borrower and they would have to replace it with good paper.

 

I got this directly on talking to an official at the Fed on an off the record basis. I got  through by telling them I was a reporter for the Wall Street Examiner, and guess what. IT WORKED!!!!

 

:lol:

650558[/snapback]

 

ROFLMAO!!!!! Are you kidding? That is freaking brilliant. After the interview, you should have invited him to check out the sister publication to the WSE, CapitalStool.com and let him know your Stool name...lol. That is hillarious.

 

By the way Ben needs a shave here and Joe Six better get that ball out of his mouth!:

 

[Goldmember]

If one of you intrepid data diggers could help me out here, I would gladly pay you back on Tuesday.

 

One of the key issues here is that the Fed will only accept AAA rated MBS that are NOT on credit watch. We know that the AAA rating is crap, but if you can find some data that would throw some light on how much of that stuff is on Watch, this would be most helpful. Is most of it on credit watch, just some, or very little. That is the primary determinant of what the Fed will and won't take, I think.

 

Furthermore, if any of the collateral offered is downgraded, then the Fed will put it back to the borrower and they would have to replace it with good paper.

 

I got this directly on talking to an official at the Fed on an off the record basis. I got  through by telling them I was a reporter for the Wall Street Examiner, and guess what. IT WORKED!!!!

 

:lol:

650558[/snapback]

 

 

The Fed probably has a subscription to the Wall Street Examiner...

 

...at least they should!

 

 

[Bungster]

I think you are channeling LeeWhee. 

 

God I miss that guy. Can't we just bring him back for a little while? 

650559[/snapback]

 

Fondest form of flattery is imitation......Yes, I sure miss the guy too...

[Peek Paper]

But can they be successful on any significant(weeks-to-months) time frame?

650551[/snapback]

They pulled the rabbit out of the hat in 2003, right at the 50% decline mark.

 

RIGHT at the mark...

 

And that lasted until a few months ago.

 

[cwd]

that was a huge assblast, glad I wasn't short or trying to play with SRS.

 

Gotta say though that every time the Fed has one of these schemes going that it only works for a little while, then the market heads lower. Don't think it'll be any different this time.

650527[/snapback]

 

 

The basic problem hasn't changed. There is a tril or so of fradulent paper floating around that needs to be covered, and people are still defaulting on their mortgages. I don't think Helo Ben has a permanent solution for either of those.

[cwd]

Was the Fed's intervention due to Bear Stearns liquidity problems, or                                        they simply want to draw a double bottom in the stock market?

 

Is Carlyle off the hook or is it too late?

 

How many other hedge funds / finaglers were temporarily saved by today's operation?

 

Can they roll this toxic paper into oblivion?

 

650548[/snapback]

 

 

Probably both.

[cwd]

If one of you intrepid data diggers could help me out here, I would gladly pay you back on Tuesday.

 

One of the key issues here is that the Fed will only accept AAA rated MBS that are NOT on credit watch. We know that the AAA rating is crap, but if you can find some data that would throw some light on how much of that stuff is on Watch, this would be most helpful. Is most of it on credit watch, just some, or very little. That is the primary determinant of what the Fed will and won't take, I think.

 

Furthermore, if any of the collateral offered is downgraded, then the Fed will put it back to the borrower and they would have to replace it with good paper.

 

I got this directly on talking to an official at the Fed on an off the record basis. I got  through by telling them I was a reporter for the Wall Street Examiner, and guess what. IT WORKED!!!!

 

:lol:

650558[/snapback]

 

 

Aren't you the Chief reporter?

[Goldmember]

From Intraday....

 

"wait a minute...when is opex? Am I off a week?"

 

Yes, 20th...

650537[/snapback]

 

Thanks Drano and Crooked anal cyst. I thought the premiums were a little steep at the time but now it makes sense.

[Goldmember]

If one of you intrepid data diggers could help me out here, I would gladly pay you back on Tuesday.

 

One of the key issues here is that the Fed will only accept AAA rated MBS that are NOT on credit watch. We know that the AAA rating is crap, but if you can find some data that would throw some light on how much of that stuff is on Watch, this would be most helpful. Is most of it on credit watch, just some, or very little. That is the primary determinant of what the Fed will and won't take, I think.

 

Furthermore, if any of the collateral offered is downgraded, then the Fed will put it back to the borrower and they would have to replace it with good paper.

 

I got this directly on talking to an official at the Fed on an off the record basis. I got  through by telling them I was a reporter for the Wall Street Examiner, and guess what. IT WORKED!!!!

 

:lol:

650558[/snapback]

 

 

I do seem to recall that someone posted a PDF list of the stuff the Fed would accept as collateral and how much they would lend based on that particular type if security. Mortgage backed stuff that was AAA and not on credit watch would be eligible for 65% of face value. Other more excellent product, Treasuries, were 90% in comparison.

 

So if Ben just lent [or will lend] Da Boyz 65 cents for every dollah of still insured not so scrutinized poo...that 65 cents of folding money can be leveraged to the tits in the schlock market.

 

While that is later, that other 14 billion today makes one hell of a kick-off...

[DrStool]

I do seem to recall that someone posted a PDF list of the stuff the Fed would accept as collateral and how much they would lend based on that particular type if security. Mortgage backed stuff that was AAA and not on credit watch would be eligible for 65% of face value. Other more excellent product, Treasuries, were 90% in comparison.

 

So if Ben just lent [or will lend] Da Boyz 65 cents for every dollah of still insured not so scrutinized poo...that 65 cents of folding money can be leveraged to the tits in the schlock market.

 

While that is later, that other 14 billion today makes one hell of a kick-off...

650570[/snapback]

 

 

That was for the TAF. Margins are much lower on this because it's not a cash loan. It's a securities swap. Theoretically they should be of equivalent value.

[Goldmember]

Right. This stuff makes my head hurt. I think I'll stick with my crayons.

 

I do kinda get it though. The massed input on the machinations of that which may affect the markets is astounding here. Some of it does absorb and start to make sense.

[Mies van der Rump]

I've been looking around...it's a tough search as you can imagine with the amount of press out there lately.

 

I came across that Gloomberg article today...they mentioned that one of the Deutsche Bank issues in the ABX has FORTY PERCENT of it's stuff in default, and it is still not downgraded. This is just unbeleivable.