Return of the Prodigal

[merciless]

WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOWWWWWWWWWZA!!!!

 

Say how bout that GW- huh - the Idiot Prince ascends- ahhhhhh

the smell of hog hide in the morning. Good grief, this guy has got to be one of THHHHEEEEE dumbest friggen rednecks I 've seen in a while- and boys and girls I seen plenty. "Ahhhm," "Ehhmmm," "Ahhhhh,"- now that's what I call leadershit- oops leadership. man I hope somewhere Tom Galvin is dusting off his resume- bwahahahahahhahaahahahahaha

 

Kiddos i think the fun is just about to start. While I was whiling away the warm days marlin fishing and playing Texas hold'em and dominoes- Cuban guts- I had a chance to speak with many many other people on va cay- a lot of Italians and Germans were down there, some Greeks too - they were the best fishermen by far. Anyway most of these guys thought Bush was from space- literally- I mean these guys were like "is this guy reaally serious or is this some kind of Texas cowboy humor? "

 

Over more than a few Appleton and Cokes I sadly broke the news to the europeans- yes he is a dolt , no he is not kidding. They seemed stunned and merry all at once, I took this to mean that these guys were either out of the market, sold their respective companies, positions etc, or were MIGHTY long oil. The Italian, Giacamo- he confessed he was connected to some ELF directors and had loaded up at 33- I was laughing when he said this because that's precisely where I had most likely got stopped out.

 

The point here being that the Euros that I encountered down there in the Carib and the many in Brazil are all either ouWT, or long oil- so Wimm Duisenberg can go suck on that. I imagine these guys were fat cats since some of these dudes had heleports on their boats, straight James Bond type stuff- strange to see, strange to be. I figure to relate all this news to stoolville because I think its imortant for us to know that the rest of the world seems very very long oil.

 

What Lana and I made of this was one, I should not under any circumstances trade oil, and two purchase more gold pronto- hard Krugs. Cause these euros were all a bit too serene if you know what I mean. These guys were acting like san jose VCs circa winter '99. No fear anywhere- not even for The Idiot Prince- they all seemed to think he would certainly come to his senses as America just would not stand for it. Well all here KNOW quite too personally what happens when you underestimate your opponents greed and lust- so I bid them adieu and headed to the caymans for some snorkeling and sun. There i met up with all form of Argentinian bankers, I mean these guys are like the Streetwise vendors of Cayman- they are on you in an instant about setting up or funding some offshore vehicle. I think I now know where a good amont of all those CDO repo induced derivative losses are being stashed away for a certain price. Mucho Plata - Mucho Plata - that 's the every second and third word out of these guys - they are the caribbean's answer to ACF i guess- whatever.

 

So I say come tomorrow I will be a seller of spooz- you all know the drill one at the open, one at the close, I 'm gonna hold that sucker that showed me all those purty handles though - I figure that's my own CITI 0 interest check to start afresh shorting this pos. Things down there weren't that bad if you had cash(HINT HINT), but man there are a bunch of very VERY VERY indigent people lining and teaming the cities and streets in Brazil. - boys and girls- I said it before and I'll say it again - hold your cash and short em if you got em cause this pos is sideways to toast. BOMBS AWAY- bwhahaahahhahaahahhahahahahahahahahahaha

 

 

Hey BARe - I said a "little" place- but thanks for the heads up- good to be back among the griZZLed.

 

stay nimble, stay focused and hey smoke 'em

 

so says i,

 

MERCILESS

[Bearman]

Say how bout that GW- huh - the Idiot Prince ascends- ahhhhhh

the smell of hog hide in the morning. Good grief, this guy has got to be one of THHHHEEEEE dumbest friggen rednecks I 've seen in a while- and boys and girls I seen plenty. "Ahhhm," "Ehhmmm," "Ahhhhh,"- now that's what I call leadershit- oops leadership. man I hope somewhere Tom Galvin is dusting off his resume- bwahahahahahhahaahahahahaha

 

Strong words my friend. Bush inherited many of his problems

 

What was that fellows name Bill? Out of the choices I had

for president, Al or GEorge George is a 100 to 1 times better

 

What ye say to that?

[DrStool]

OK, the anti-shrub and the pro-shrub have had their say. I'm with merci. I think shrub is badly fumbling this but doing the right thing. Whether he caused the problems isn't relevant. Nor is it relevant whther someone else may have handled it better. These are just differences of opinion. Some people like Bush, some don't. So what. This is not the political thread and that's not why I put the post here. So let's drop that subject and take the political food fight to Political Stool. We've had our say, ok. The next political rant on this thread gets deleted.

[Grand Poopercycle]

Actually, saw a small blurb in Whore Street Journal earlier this week that Tom Galvin had been named 'Chief Investment Officer for Large-Cap Equities' at one of the subsidiaries of Schwabbie/US Trust-ignorant stock skank Liz Ann Sonders holds a similar 'position' within the Schwabbie empire as well. This is worse than nepotism, since there's no blood tie to offer up as some sort of bad rationale.

As an aside, I'd venture that anyone who holds two degrees from two different Ivy League educational institutions and can still be viewed by more than a handful of others as 'stupid', 'dumb' or 'ignorant' may tell us at least as much, if not more, about the quality of the allegedly 'elite' portion of American higher education as about the person being referred to(not an endorsement of nor a dissent from any of said persons individual or overall viewpoints or policies) especially since many of the 'more than a handful' have a similar 'elite' educational background-if it tells us anything at all.

[machinehead]

"What Lana and I made of this was one, I should not under any circumstances trade oil."

 

Good man, merciless. Oil is looking peaky, which may not match up with the perceived geopolitics. But many complacent longs suggests that if anything, oil should be traded from the short side.

 

I remember so clearly in late 1990, Claudia Rosette of the WSJ wrote a huffing and puffing hysterical editorial about how $40/bbl crude would crush the world economy. Within weeks oil prices were crashing hard. Those who can, trade; those who can't, scribble.

[DrStool]

Don't I know! Heh heh.

[machinehead]

That remark wasn't aimed at you, Doc. Fading the media is a serious contrarian strategy.

 

Doctor Stool's cycles prevent him from being wrong for too long.

[rog]

Welcome back Merci!

 

Going down to the Caymans in a few weeks to conduct a little biz. Might just check out one of those over-under-behind-your-back repos.

 

You may have answered this before. Why krugs instead of bullion? Noticed it's always trading at a discount to bars. Wasabi?

[Hypertiger]

The reason oil crashed in 1990 is because Russia and Sudia Arabia pumped like mad...

 

This time around they are pumping like mad already...

 

But to go long now? It's too late in my opinion without biting your nails off...

 

one way or the other the current price is not sustainable for the long haul...

 

Could see a war spike up to $45... but I like haveing things in my hand right now and silver spikes are easier to play than oil spikes...

[speculator]

You may have answered this before. Why krugs instead of bullion? Noticed it's always trading at a discount to bars. Wasabi?

Krugs are only 91% gold, the rest is copper (1.09oz coin = 1oz gold). Maples are the only pure gold coin (1oz coin = 1oz gold), and are the most expensive. US gold eagles are also only 91% gold but have 5% silver and only 3% copper.

[merciless]

woooooooooooooooowwwwwwwwwwzzaaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

sorry for the late post rog, but I did not see the other posts on this thread until today. I do the Krugs because for a similar reason people prefer US$ to The pound Sterling or the HK$, though they are all relatively similar in value store, Krugs like the US$ tend to be the most fungible from all my experiences, in times of stress most people will tend to flock to the most fungible of the preferred asset class. My logic may be counter to some but go anywhere in the world of finance and people know what a Krug is without hesitation, i can't say from my experience that Maple Leafs carry the same cache, for an EFP arb though the Krug /Maple, taint a bad play at all if it gets that far. Hope this answers your ?-

 

stay nimble, stay focused and hey smoke 'em,

 

 

so says i,

 

 

MERCILESS

[rog]

Thanks Merci,

 

Never bought coins always held small bars 1 or 10 oz. Haven't considered the fungiblity issue before. Might have to trade bars for coins in the future.

[Bearwithme]

Doc said:

"OK, the anti-shrub and the pro-shrub have had their say. I'm with merci. I think shrub is badly fumbling this but doing the right thing. Whether he caused the problems isn't relevant. Nor is it relevant whther someone else may have handled it better. These are just differences of opinion. Some people like Bush, some don't. So what. This is not the political thread and that's not why I put the post here. So let's drop that subject and take the political food fight to Political Stool. We've had our say, ok. The next political rant on this thread gets deleted. "

 

Doc: What I take this posting to be is economic AND political.

If we lose eurobucks we are screwed.. and pissing off the customers of our equity markets and T-bill might not be a bright thing to do right now.. (unless Bush thinks depressions are fun)

Bush has failed to build an alliance.. he has failed to prove the justness of going into Iraq.. he has even been accused of providing false evidence to support his argument.. to me whether it is right or wrong is almost irelevant.. if we don't convince the majority of the world we are doing the right thing, we could permanently piss them off and destroy the last 60 years of strong alliance building...

 

Sorry Doc... Bush's inability to create an alliance (or sway world opinion 1%) is making the US foreign policy (and the effectiveness of the current administration) look pathetic.

 

Varying reports indicate to me that approx. 1/3 of $$ here in US markets, bonds and T-bills are from ouside the US.

This goes way beyond politics.. it could collapse the US markets all at once.

[DrStool]

Let's not dredge this up again please. I have misgivings, but I have made my decision. Saddam is a butcher and a mass murderer. He is a cancer on the world, and he must be excised. What do you want to do, wait until he uses this shit, or gives it to somebody who will. Sorry, that argument does not fly with me. That's my opinion.

 

People honestly reach different conclusions on this issue. That's the way it is. That's my opinion, that's all it is, and it really makes no difference to anyone, so I don't know why the hell I brought it up. I should have kept my mouth shut.

 

As for the markets, they will do what they will do, regardless, whether we go to war or don't go to war. People and states and institutions make financial decisions based on their economic interests. Not because they are "pissed off" or pissed on. That argument will not fly with me. I've heard it before and I don't think much of it. But what do I know. 38 goddam years of studying markets doesn't mean a freaking thing around here. I can goddam well see that.