No Oyster report from me today

[Guest]

Sorry, folks, I missed Oyster's presentation today. :cry: Did anybody watch it? What did he say?

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[TGakaTheBigHurt]

I saw it.

 

Same old, same old...

 

Oy's starting to catch some increased flack for being bearish for past several months but he continues to stick to his guns, saying that momentum peaked back in June and market has been running on fumes since then and the further it goes the worse the coming break down will be.

 

He did mention an 84 year cycle that he thought has been in play for past year but he didn't elaborate on it.

 

84 years is the planet Uranus' length of time to complete one revolution around sun.

 

Gann correlated planetary cycles with market cycles in this way and Oyster incorporates a lot of Gann methods into his work.

 

There is some similarities to how the market moved in 1919 vs. 2003 with substantial multi month strong runs into early June, mild choppy corrections into August and steady moves higher into late Autumn.

 

The correlation is pretty decent but I've seen better examples of Gann cycles repeating than the cycle Oyster mentioned.

[DrStool]

For those who are new around here. TG is one of the charter stoolies, around since the beginning.

[Pigeon Drop]

Did he say anything about the Euro/Dollar rate? Last I read it was 1.21 to 1.25, then a major correction to 1.12. In other words, per Oyster, we're near/at the top now for Euro. Just wondering if he said anything new.

[TGakaTheBigHurt]

He has same E wave count for Gold and Euro vs. Dollar as in past shows. No change.

 

Looking for a high between now and January before correction/consolidation though no specific downside targets that I recall.

 

They really cut him short this time around.

 

Over at cycle pro there are some real nice gold charts that show multiple 8 year gold cycles of 3 years up and 5 years down. If that pattern were to hold, January 2004 would be the next top for gold. If gold is in a secular bull market it would be time for it to break out of such a pattern.

 

It hasn't convincingly taken out the previous cycle high in nominal terms and is a ways off in constant 1991 dollars.

 

For what is increasingly becoming a contrarian viewpoint, A. Gary Shilling at www.forbes.com/columnists recently made an interesting argument for coming dollar strength. Sounds nutty but he's been right about a lot of things for the past 25 years or so.

 

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchan...500/Outlook.htm

 

http://www.geocities.com/WallStreet/Exchan...jInf_020308.gif

[MrHankydoesWallStreet]

Shilling was correct about the equity bear market and "bond rally of a lifetime" but he has always maintained the dollar would remain strong through what he terms the "transition to deflation" which is what he believes we are in.

He also maintains government deficits are the "root of all inflation" and expected great efforts to keep the deficits low. I don't think he expected them to balloon so rapidly nor did he or could he foresee the "war on terrorism" and wars are always inflationary.

So far all I see is a continuing dollar decline with no signs of a larger reversal

and inflation????

 

Gann primarily used SATURN in his planetary forecasts. SATURN's orbital period is 30 years = 360 months or 1degree per month. 30 year and decennial are most important LT cycles to Gann.

 

 

Hank

[mjkst27]

if you're in the camp that thinks the US economy has a big problem a comin', then a stronger dollar is the thing to be looking for, IMO. A weak dollar just shifts the recessionary forces onto the ROW.