Simple Guy's Simple Take for Week of 12/23

[simple guy]

SG updates for the weekend etc...

 

I see a falling bullish wedge on the NAS confirming my ST opinion to remain in cash. My 1420-1440 NAS wave 2 retracements should be met over the next 2 weeks roughly.

 

Falling Bullish Wedge example

 

This is a classic falling bullish wedge formation, much like the Gold Bug Index just saw (HUI). HUI now has air pockets to 115 from its lofty state of 138 right now....

 

The chart below makes the case pretty clear, add in todays move to 1370, then 135x.... and you can see the wedge narrowing here...

 

I expect upside to start next week, on light volume. With volume picking up into year end and early new year....

 

NAS should top out around 1420-1440, NDX 1055-1080, and Q's 26.40-26.80.... with potential spillovers higher, but not likely.... I can update these later.

 

The main ingredient here is I am st bullish, Im in cash, I am waiting to Re Short the NAS (qqq) once the retracement wave 2 completes.... its going to catch some bears with their pants down...

 

Not me...

 

UPdate ya down the road.... when I finally do re-enter... ITS GOING TO BE A WHOPPER TO THE DOWNSIDE

[Guest]

SG, if we have a 3-wave (ABC) structure (instead of 5) from the top, doesn't that mean that the downward correction from that top (Dec 2) is over? That would be consistent with what I posted near the beginning of the thread - that the move from Oct 10 to Dec 2 was wave A, the correction since then - wave B (down), and now we're about to have another wave up - C - to a higher high.

 

At least, that's what this e-wave picture tells me. Indicator-wise, I don't see how this could happen; everything else is screaming that Dec 2 was a major top and we're still far, far away from the next major low...

 

Unless the whole ABC downmove from the Dec top (shown on the last chart you posted) is just wave 1 of the 5-wave downmove that awaits us?

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[simple guy]

As I indicated near last page of IDS on Friday

 

I went long the QQQ index at 200% leverage with a full position at the close. Using Rydex Velocity 100. I rarely if EVER go long, but my gut and experience told me to do so. After hours the index was moving up too...

 

Wave 2 upward off the recent lows should then lead to a major wave 3 down starting in January at some point....

 

My wave 2 retracements are listed on my first post... so Im long for a few days probably anyhow...

 

I love being contrarian... heh heh

[Guest soup1]

Sg: all the best , but being long in here is far from a contrarian play. Having said that I would not mind seeing a rally next week; but an awful lot of folks are looking/expecting the year end rally.

[Guest AssMaster]

I am far from being an expert, but the action I saw Thursday in AMAT looks like a potential bottom formation. The MM got cute running some guy's sell stop at 12.99, then ran it up and it hasn't looked back. Heck, I saw it dropping into the gaps at 12 or so and would have sold too!

 

AMAT->SOX->NDX->NASDAQ->SPX->INDU.

 

If I had to guess, I would say stocks up, gold down for a week or two. Hope I'm wrong though. Long some SMH. Holding golds for now.

[Goldmember]

The reality that may unfold before us all should be quite interesting. Somehow January is going to be ominous in its move. Shrub gives his State of the Union address on Jan. 28 and that will be complete and utter confirmation of war with Iraq. Bombs may be dropping as he speaks at that time. It would be kind of crappy if they had a war during a 10-13 week cycle up-phase therefore I am kinda hoping the current 10-13 week cycle ends, like NOW, for a relatively weak up-phase of the new cycle till Bush's "point of no return" winter window of invasion opportunity is officially announced during that State of the Union address. This should soundly terminate a potential and maximum one month long up-phase of the fresh 10-13 week cycle. February and March would offer some STUNNING declines once that cycle is roaring downward to its abrupt and climactic capitulation. The 4-7 week cycle could play a different different tune in this scenario, and offset the timing or trigger the early demise of the fresh 10-13 week cycle. I am still learning these cycles and how they work within each other so please, folks, let our good Doctor of Stool inform us all much more accurately than I ever can, but I will state now how I see things shaping up. That is the really cool part about Stoolville here. The confluence of ideas and input is truly a powerful thing. Some nice declines now are desired by most bears but I want to see geopolitical events line up with the cycles. The cycles will rule the events in the end but having them work in tandem is far more reassuring for placing larger bets on movements.

 

So that's how I see it. Weak up-phases for the new cycles and stunning panic for the declining portion of the cycles. June comes to mind as an example of how the new 10-13 week plays out. But, I am still learning this game folks, consider this just one piece of noise in the harmonics of things. We all have to go with our own decicions anyway.

[Goldmember]

On the other hand, perhaps we start to seriously discount the coming war right bloody quickly during this open window at the end of the 10-13 week cycle. January 6, when the big boyz are back, until January 15, or further, could still be one bitchin nice decline. I don't think I'll do much of anything till then. Frankly, some holiday hedge fund or trading department fun could push this thing around during the lame duck holiday trading. :shocked

[simple guy]

A few tidbits for today

 

1. Dont drag that astro psycho babble onto this thread, its off topic somewhat no?? Althought I admit I do pay attention to Bradley models and such, its still off topic

 

2. Same with CMAPS... thats a DOC Thing, not a Simple Guy thing (Again, I also pay some attention to them but it aint my schtick)

 

... that said...

 

Someone remarked that I aint being contrarian going bullish this week.... OH YEAH?? Article below indicates I am

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/021222/column_stoc..._outlook_1.html

 

Not to mention that Im just a scosh nervous in this ST call, and I am rarely if ever bullish lately... heh heh

 

The final note... can't believe how many people follow my E Wave takes, keep in mind Im a simple guy... so as always...

 

I COULD BE WRONG

[simple guy]

Oh yes, one more chime...

 

DING!.... NAS can hit 1346 on Monday and still be within my bullish call framework....

 

1420-1440 NAS coming.... actually ,1346 would be ideal as it would really fill out that bullish wedge nicely and lead to a major spike upward....

 

Just something to keep in mind for monday morning...

[simple guy]

I have updated my QQQ falling bullish wedge chart through the 415 print on Fridays close...

 

In the last 15 minutes after 4pm, Money Flow turned up big time, accumulation rose so that almost 6 million shares were purchased after hours, and Momentum indicators turned up... an early sign.

 

Again, I could be wrong.... but using Rydex Velocity, I get the 4pm print, not the 415pm print... which is even better....

 

Here is the wedge... decide for yourself the next likely move...

[DrStool]

Yepper!

 

I have moved LunaC's post to a new Astro topic. Post asstrological analysis there.

[Guest]

Check out the Trimtabs article...even though it is three weeks old:

 

http://www.trimtabs.com/news/liquidity/latest.html

 

At the beginning of the article, a point is made how this could be the first down December in awhile due to an expected 20 billion of corporate secondaries in first three weeks of December.

 

Well we just had that. You don't see offerings around the holidays until early January, which explains largely why the seasonality is strong the last part of December. I make it a point to mention the CAUSE of any potential market strength since it is silly to say a market did this x percent of the time so it will be up again, etc.

 

Bottom line is I say slightly up next week.

[Guest]

. . . The final note... can't believe how many people follow my E Wave takes, keep in mind Im a simple guy... so as always...

 

I COULD BE WRONG

I follow closely what you say because:

 

a. You put out a chart and explain your interpretation of it in a logical, simple way that I can understand.

 

b. You call it as you see it whether it be bullish short term or bearish.

 

Just so you know, I, of course, take full responsibility for my trades.

 

There are probably others who follow you for the same reasons.

 

Just keep doin' your thing. Don't worry about us. :wink2:

[depends]

Well I just don't get it. Why should we have a Christmas

rally? Because 70% of the time the market rallies in the

last weeks of the year? This is not a normal year.

 

I have yet to see a buy signal other than Simple Guys

and hey, he could be wrong.

 

Went to the mall Clearwater Mall (FL) on Sat. Not what

I would call a big day - lots of sales clerks standing

around in Sears - Candle factory busy, but not gang

busters. Victoria secret - got a clerk right away. Lots

of merchandise on display. Only shortage was at Radio

Shack - out of those little race cars that were advertised -

they screwed up on that product. Looked at 3g phones

and decided to avoid them - did you know that if you want

phone sounds you have to rent them? And the picture

is about useless - why would I put my ugly mugg in

a phone call when the girls all say my voice is sexy?

 

Short ROAD, YELL

Long NYB - new on NYSE

Long gold - RGLD, DROOY, CDE, TVX, KGC, HL, GSS

 

Closed some shorts on Friday.

Will add more shorts if no break or close above 903.

 

Have been trading gold - selling rallies and buying dips

on RGLD and DROOY only.

 

SG and bontchev - thanks for putting it out there. Wonderful

discussion. I will be donging the qqq if I see a buy signal, but

I shorted them three times this past week for decent gains

and will do so again if I see the resistance hold.

 

Anyway, my wife has banned all discussion about

war, politics, NWO, crash and terrorism and other bad things

in our house for the holidays. That's a good thing.

[longOnUranus]

2 weeks from tommorrow we will be right where we are now, 1-2% +/- of 900. Looking at the weekly SPX for a year, the last 4 weeks have been astoundingly flat. Options players on both sides have been killed by low volatility and 15 minute/hourly "trends" that have been "n" times counterintuitive (n="counter" as many times as you like, ie, countercountercounterintuitive). A random walk for the market is what it is. I continue to be amazed by Doc's accuracy in calling the cyclicality and absolute range on these relatively small moves.

 

SG, I'm impressed that you feel confident enough to go 200% long. I wound up with a small fortune this year betting on short-term trend reversals (I started the year with a larger fortune). Perhaps next year they'll annihilate the small-time, short-term traders, now that they've wiped out JohnQ, Mutuals and, shortly, the Hedgies. I am starting to "see" in my crystal ballz LONGGGG-TERM SWUPS, SWDOWNS with a few days of killer spikes and dips thrusting frequently enough to impale anyone "content" with any position, short or long.

 

Again, no argument here with timing a shorting opportunity, just very concerned about the risk/reward strategy of anything other than an 1-2 hour scalp/momentum trade on the long side.

 

Best 'o luck!