Just here to make a fortune Posted May 29, 2003 Report Posted May 29, 2003 I think it would be cool if we had some input on who the special celebrities of our next decline will be.... I'm always looking for intelligent bets to place right now i am focusing on the stars of the high insider selling, high P/E, low ROA, and high Debt-to-Equity....... I am kind of looking at AOL in particular...... other ideas for candidates and more info on AOL would be awesome!
Just here to make a fortune Posted May 29, 2003 Author Report Posted May 29, 2003 What I like most about AOL is the stock lost about $10 per share last year....... that's not too bad for a $15 stock. This could go to Chapter 11 sooner than the market thinks. Their debt is rated at BBB- one more downgrade and they will begin to have problems getting credit. Of particular interest is Ted sold 60 million shares to Goldman earlier this month at 13.07. Now the question is how Goldman is going to hedge that risk- they certainly haven't dumped it all yet, and they are too smart to choke on it. It takes time to unload 60 million deltas. It looks like the options markets will be able to handle some of the pressure however they haven't hedged it all there because the open interest is still too low for that size of stock. Since the stock so far is almost at a $2.00 gain (it is almost $15.00 today)- aka $120 mil in unrealized profit they will ceratinly be looking to unload some of the risk and lock in the profit. Remember Goldman is in business to trade, something like $600 million of their income last year was from high risk speculations.
Guest Posted May 29, 2003 Report Posted May 29, 2003 JHTMAF... Great premise for a thread! Let me kibbitz here to propel it some more... The principles ought to be who suffers the most under the next paradigm. Interest rates won't have to go to the ceiling to cause some pain...a move from the low 3s to low 4s is a 30% move (can you see the headlines?); on the margin, some recent mortgages might go under water, delinquencies, late payments (see those headlines?). Some financials might not stand the heat. Housing, consumer durables too. How 'bout the dollar reversing? If it only makes a 6-month correction here, that would be long enough to rethink the lower-dollar-benefits-exports idea. Your AOL suggestion is right on. A CH 11 that size and noteriety might be the capitulation event.
Just here to make a fortune Posted May 30, 2003 Author Report Posted May 30, 2003 Sheep dont understand anyway. As long as the market is rising they will love anything! I remember when the dollar index was threatening to break 110 and the market was falling how the media was worried and the sheep were saying....... "baaaa....baaaa.... dollar dropping is baaaaaddd." but this time the market is rising so they now say..... "baaaa....baaaa.... dollar dropping is gooood." All I have to say is that if printing presses were the solution to everything then Latin America would be the Superpower around these parts. Eventually it will collapse under its own weight- until then- Here is a quick List of my favorites for this fall...... AOL CSCO EBAY GE JNPR JPM AMGN HPQ CA - I love this one- this stock is always ripe for a pounding! GENZ VOD HON QQQ VZ Any thoughts?
Guest Icky Twerp Posted May 30, 2003 Report Posted May 30, 2003 Baa Ram Du! Baa Ram Du! To your own flock be true! -- Babe, the movie
psyche doctor Posted May 31, 2003 Report Posted May 31, 2003 Besides the current bulls, sheep are one of the dumbest animals on the planet. Horses aren't too smart either.
Yoshaviah Posted May 31, 2003 Report Posted May 31, 2003 Well, something should be said about the shepherd too you know.
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