|
Subscriber Sections The
Anals MoGauge © Subscription Help (Login, Password etc.) Free Forums
Resources Market Stats and Kitco Thumbnail Charts Bear
Essentials Marketviews with Ike Iossif Prudentbear.com
Humor Wall Street Follies Financial Funnies Hilarious! by stoolie prolerbear Not
In My Backyard for Capitalstool. Support the Stool! |
We
don't know and neither do they.
Chart
Courtesy of
|
S&P
500 Archive-July Noise (7/31/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology Sound, fury, and not much else is what we ended up with at the end of the day. The futures continued the descent after the bell, and at one point were back to unchanged from Monday's close. The SPX is in exactly the same position technically and cyclically, that it was in yesterday. So Dr. Stool will repeat, this is an aging short term cycle up phase which began in mid to late June, and has now moved across the larger intermediate wave bands in a generally sideways direction. Prices are bumping against the upper edge bands of the channel, and, if Doc is right, will be repelled, very soon. Dr. Stool thanks you for subscribing to Capitalstool with Paypal, secure payment system insured by Travelers, or Amazon.com's Honor System. Of course, it's voluntary! Cycle Conditions
Market Strat-ego-ists Turn Cautious (7/30/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology Doc is sure that you've noticed that all the analcysts now expect this flat, do nothing, market to go on and on. It is so like them to take the recent past and project it indefinitely into the future. They are just so imaginative! Doc also noticed that a couple of the market strat-ego-ists finally lowered their earnings estimates on the S&P. One of them, Doug Cliggott of JP Moogan Chases Investors, has been a good guy, spelled b-e-a-r, right along. He dropped his '01 earnings estimate to 44 bucks. The other two, Tom Galvin of Swiss Cheese For Bulls, and Ed Kirschner, of U BS'er Whoreburg also cut their estimates. 'Course they're still 25% too high. Galvin is looking for 1500 on the Sphincters Index by the end of '02. Galvin and Kirschner, who use the Scientific Wild Ass Guess Method, but who both sound like they know what they are talking about, are two of the worst, right up there with the ABC's, Applegate, Battapaglia, and Cohen. They are certainly in the running for the Blodgett-Meeker Award (BM-Prize) for market strat-ego-ist of the year. One of these days Dr. Stool will get around to exposing them for the frauds that they are. As for the cyclical picture here, it's pretty much the same as for the Nasty. The 10-11 week cycle should begin to accelerate to the downside now. We'll see. Dr. Stool thanks you for subscribing to Capitalstool with Paypal, secure payment system insured by Travelers, or Amazon.com's Honor System. Of course, it's voluntary! Cycle Conditions
Visualizations (7/27/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology Dr. Stool wants you to try to see something using the daily chart at the bottom of the page. How you say, can the market be in a top, when it just came off a low? That's a good question. What you need to know is that tops have more to do with psychological conditions, and where prices are in relation to the channel that contains them, than where they are in absolute terms. When investor psychology is irrationally bullish and prices are near the upper band of a trend/cycle channel, that's a top. We know that Investors Intelligence advisory sentiment is showing extremely low levels of bearish sentiment. We know that mental institutional strategists in charge of shrinking swollen portfolio membranes are the most bullish they have been in recorded history. And we can see, simply by eyeballing the daily chart, that prices are very close to the upper edge of a downtrend channel beginning with the low in mid-March, just before the blowoff to 1315. Now that downtrend has a little curve to it, which is fooling a lot of folks into thinking the downtrend is broken. Absolutamente falsamente. All trends curve. Why do you think whipsaws are so common? Because prices really move in curving wave channels. We see a slight slowing in the downslope because the 10-11 week cycle bottomed in mid June, and has been in an up phase since. Over that time the crowd felt hopeful and optimistic, and bought every dip. It felt like the market wanted to go up, and relative to descending intermediate and long term trends, prices did go from the bottom of the channel to the top. In that sense the direction of the movement was "up", in spite of the fact that in real terms prices are no higher now than they were when the 10-11 week wave bottomed in mid June. That price movement has now reached the top of the intermediate channel. There's perhaps 10-12 points of upside left. Once the buying is exhausted, and it may have been already, the next move will be to the bottom of the channel in the low 1100 area as the 10-11 week cycle turns down. Stay tuned for Doc to post a cycle chart later in the weekend. Dr. Stool thanks you for subscribing to Capitalstool with Paypal, secure payment system insured by Travelers, or Amazon.com's Honor System. Of course, it's voluntary! Cycle Conditions
*Up-BNFL- Up, But Not For Long Howww Long, Has This Been Goin On? (7/26/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology Ladies and Gentlemen, there's nothing new here. The market has the same personality it's had for the last two months. The shortest term cycles have varied in length, that's all. These little wavelets have been mostly around 13 days, but 8 days is a recognized cyclicality as well. The 8 day cycle's amplitude has been very muted recently, ooops, until this week. So this is an 8 day cycle rally that's now more than two days old. The cycle phase for the 4 and 6-7 week cycles is unclear, again due to muted amplitude. However, Dr. Stool is reasonably certain that the 10-11 week cycle is at its mid point and is topping out. Longer term cycle oscillators continue to indicate that the 4-5 month cycle and 7 month cycles are headed lower. The waves are growing more shallow, but that too could change. The size and slope of this choppy intermediate decline will depend on whether the rally flames out without too much more upside, which is what Dr. Stool thinks will happen. Sometime next week, the 10-11 week cycle should begin to downtrend more strongly, leading to a test of the March lows within a few weeks. For now the downside target is 1115, but expect that to change. Cycle Conditions
*Up-BNFL- Up, But Not For Long More Drip, Drip, Bounce (7/25/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology Portfolio sphincters came roaring back Wednesday, giving shorts another good squeeze in the process. Based on the hourly charts, as with the Nasdaq, this looks like a 5 or 8 day cycle upturn that should flame out quickly. The daily chart indicators are not pointing to anything significant. If Doc is correct about the June low being the 10-11 week cycle low, then that cycle is now approaching it's midpoint and should begin to weaken dramatically within a week. However, the 4 and 6 week cycles may be near lows. It's a recipe for more of the same, drip, drip bounce. Here's a cycle forecast chart update. Cycle Conditions
Leaky Bowel Syndrome (7/24/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology Man, was that ugly. The portfolio sphincters had been putting the squeeze on the shorts off and on for most of July, but just as Dr. Stool warned you they would begin to lose control in late July, they have. The stench of the leakage from Wall Street is permeating the CNBC nation. The question is, did anybody really believe the crap they've been spewing for the last three months? What nonsense! Well, the wind has finally shifted, and the money mismanagers are starting to smell the mess they've left behind. It makes old Dr. Stool sick when he thinks of the innocent victims being destroyed by their criminal negligence. Enough editorializing. There was only minimal shifting in the centered moving average projections. There will be bounces along the way, but the intermediate low is still looking like the 100-1050 range, probably around Labor Day. That's a minimum. The September low may only be a short cycle low, which could be followed by selling into the year end. Doesn't really matter. The next few weeks should see nothing dramatic, just a steady drip, drip, drip, bounce, drip, drip. The first minor low is due in 3-6 days, somewhere near 1125. Cycle Conditions
Sphincters Break Wind (7/23/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology The Sphincters Index (SPX) broke a little wind on Monday, falling below the 1200 level, probably for good this time, we'll see. Short term cycles are just beginning to turn down and intermediate cycles are still topping out, although they are heading lower from here. The top will be complete when the index dips below 1168. The cycle projections are below. To see a cycle forecast chart, click here. Cycle Conditions
Momentous and Portentous (7/21/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology Dr. Stool did some major work with the Etch a Sketch Friday night. This is one of his more momentous, portentous, and pretentious charts. It's much too important for this page and deserves a page of its own. Have a look! Cycle Conditions
Between The Green Lines (7/19/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology The reason the market has been acting crazy is that this is a top, not a bottom. The market's actually been in one of those "sideways up phases" for the past couple of weeks, that carry prices across a downtrend channel without actually going higher. Here's an Etch-a-sketch of where Doc thinks things stand.
It's interesting that prices have been unable to get above the extrapolation of the 53 day moving average. If the market were in half way decent shape, prices would have gone through easily. Doc believes that the short term lows were back in June, and that this mish mash we've witnessed was an up phase that's now topping out. Cycle Conditions
Put Up or Shut Up (7/18/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology So far Dr. Stool has not had to eat his words. You don't know if he's right or not yet. Those things take time. He's been saying for months that the market would collapse beginning in mid-July and mid July is here. So it's time for market to put up or Dr. Stool to shut up. Now Dr. Stool can't shut up, you know that! Cycle Conditions
Put Up or Shut Up (7/18/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology So far Dr. Stool has not had to eat his words. You don't know if he's right or not yet. Those things take time. He's been saying for months that the market would collapse beginning in mid-July and mid July is here. So it's time for market to put up or Dr. Stool to shut up. Now Dr. Stool can't shut up, you know that! Cycle Conditions
Famous Last Words?(7/17/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology Surprise, surprise (are we sick of it yet) the Sphincters Index moved back up to the upper limit of that linear regression channel that has contained this most ornery of downtrends. Being blind as a bat, and biased as hell anyway, Dr. Stool sees no chance that it will break out to the upside. If you look at the daily cart at the bottom of the page you'll see the momentum just isn't there. The only question is, will these be Dr. Stool's famous last words.
Cycle Conditions
Jaws of the Bear(7/16/01) by Dr. Stepan N. Stool, Chief of Stock Proctology Much like the Nasty, the Sphincter Index formed the rare Boomerang Formation or Who Flung Dung in candlestick charting, on the hourly charts. Only in this case the blade has a handle. This is known is the sickle formation, a variant of the boomerang. The sickle has been known for cutting down stock prices on its swings. The SPX stayed within both its long and intermediate downtrend linear regression channels, and cyclicality should now be turning extremely negative, as the 6-7 and 10-11 week cycles join longer term waves in down phase. We should see an initial pause at the center of the regression channels (see below) around 1175, but once through those levels, the downtrend should accelerate. The 4-5 month cycle low is now projected in the 1000 range. That may not be the end if it. Beyond the 4-5 month cycle, there's also a 7 month and a 10 month cycle, which will be headed down hard as the 4-5 month cycle bottoms in August-September. The way it looks now, the market will be in the jaws of the bear for months. There won't be much left when she's done. Cycle Conditions
If It Doesn't Fit, You Must... (7/13/01) by Bernie Butts, Editorial Asst. to Dr. Stool This chart tells you where this market is heading. Now I didn't make this up. Dr. Stool may make things up, but I don't. This is math. The dotted red lines in the center of the channel are an extrapolation of the 210 day moving average based on a linear regression of the last 90 data points shifted back in time 110 days or half the span of the average, then projected forward. You got that?
Chart built with Metastock from Equis International. Metastock is featured in Dr. Stool's bookstore. To learn more, click here. The outer dotted lines are parallels of the linear regression extending from the upper and lower edge bands of the 210 day moving average, with a vertical shift of 6% above and below the moving average. In plain English, the red dotted lines are just an extrapolation of the trend the market was in 5 months ago. This is a representation of the long term trend channel. These are not lines connecting tops and bottoms. They are mathematically derived projections of the market's past behavior. Question. Do you see anything different between now, and then? Now, if it doesn't fit, you must acquit, but in this case, it fits like...why, it fits like a glove! Ok, now the little blue squiggly lines. This is the same exercise for the intermediate trend. The blue channel is a 5% band based on the 27 day moving average, lagged by 14 days, i.e. half the length of the moving average. The dotted lines represent a linear regression channel, using the data from the last six weeks. Question. Does this linear regression channel fit the lagged 27 day moving average envelope? Why, yes, ...yes it does. This market stands convicted!
Bernie Butts Editorial Asst. to Dr. Stool Cycle Conditions
Smoke and Mirrors (7/12/01) by Bernie Butts, Editorial Asst. to Dr. Stool The Sphincter Index rallied back to resistance. Bulls were operating on the theory: where there's smoke, there's fire. Unfortunately for them, it's all smoke and mirrors. The downtrend is intact and there were no significant buy signals on anything other than the shortest term oscillators. The shortest cycles are in up phases. In real terms they should be again manifest as trading ranges, and they should last no more than a week or two. Bernie Butts Editorial Asst. to Dr. Stool Cycle Conditions
Shorts Who Cover Today (7/11/01) Volatility's back, that's for sure. The market covered more ground going nowhere Wednesday, than we've seen in awhile. Then after the bell- BOOM. Just a wee bit of an over reaction by shorts with their first profits to protect in months. All those sellers waiting at 1200 are going to feel like they just got a gift horse. 'Course, they'll pull their offers for the first 10 minutes, then look out. The futures hit a high of 1204 right after the close, and had traded down to 1198 bid as of 9PM ET US. Dr. Stool did a little intra-day CMA projection and came up with a high of 1205-1210. This is just another nick in the armor of potential demand down the road. Shorts
who buy-in today Expecting a rhyme, weren't you? Cycle Conditions
We've Only Just Begun (7/10/01) The bulls and Dr. Stool got snookered by that 1 1/2 day rally. And that's all she wrote. There's no demand. The wad is shot. It's straight down from here. For the next two months, there are going to be very few up days, and even fewer times where they can string two or three plus days together. For months Dr. Stool's been reminding you that July is the time when all the cycles would get in gear to the downside. That time is here, and it should last into September. This thing is just getting started. The chart below is not a joke. Cycle Conditions
Walking The Tightrope(7/9/01) The Sphincters Index is beginning to show hints that the market may not be as weak as Dr. Stool has been forecasting. This is the tricky part of a decline, when things look like they may be getting more bullish on the charts. All the bottom fishers and nervous shorts (like yours truly) rush in and buy, then a few days later, when the little wave of buying is exhausted, things fall apart. What's probably happening is that the 6-7 and 10-11 week cycles are still in up phases. Yes, they are down in real terms, but they are up relative to the declining 4-5 month cycle wave band that contains them. Under the circumstances prices move sideways, or even slightly lower. This is what Dr. Stool has described in the past as a "sideways up phase." Very tricky, and difficult to read. Dr. Stool's interpretation is that the Sphincter's Index is 15 trading days from the 6-7 and 10-11 week cycle low in mid-May. That would mean the 6-7 week cycle should begin to weaken dramatically later this week, if the 4-5 month cycle is headed down. But it's earlier in the 10-11 week cycle, and the psychological conditions may lead to yet one or two more attacks on downtrend resistance in the 1220-1230 area before it all comes apart. The next two weeks should be a period of high tension for both bulls and bears. So far, the market is adhering to the cyclical scenario which Dr. Stool has been relating over the past month: choppiness with a downward bias, before a collapse beginning in mid-July. Cycle Conditions
Poor Tents of Things To Come(7/6/01) The Sphincters Index broke the shelf at 1200 rather convincingly Friday, a portent of things to come for the Nasdaq and Dow. Very early projections for the 10-11 and 6-7 week cycle lows are around 1120, which is only 6% below current levels. It's still early however, and those projections will shift down if there's more weakness early this week. Cyclicality says we'll get a bounce soon. The 13 day cycle low is due Monday, and the low is projected at 1180. Don't expect the bounce to amount to much, maybe no more than a brief pause. Sellers will be waiting with baited breath at 1190-1200. They should be so lucky. Cycle Conditions
The Long and Grinding Road (7/5/01) The portfolio sphincters gave it up a little Thursday, the ones that were at their desks anyway. The rest of them spent the day in the Hamptons, glued to the tube, screaming frantically into the phone at their head traders. Lets face it. They know the gig is up. There's no market for them to sell their crap into. This thing is getting started a little earlier than Dr. Stool's most recent guess of mid-month, but started it has. The Sphincters will get a little false bottom bounce in the 1200 region, looks like 1180, for a 13 day cycle low Monday or Tuesday. But the bounce will be pathetic and short. It'll be almost all downhill between now and September, and the tape action will be dull and lifeless, just the kind of thing you bears should love. Cycle Conditions
Moo-ment of Truth (7/3/01) The problem for the portfolio sphincters is clear. They have been wildly bullish since they rang the bell at the bottom in April. They have been wildly bullish through the Fed's cut after cut after cut after cut. They have committed godzillions to stocks over the last three months. And where are they. Well for starters, 80% of the money they committed over the last three months was at higher than current prices. Then there's the fact that the 4, 6-7 and 10-11 week cycles bottomed 12 days ago. These cycles are in up phase. The first stage of an up phase is the time when the initial thrust drives the market to its biggest gains. Now, 12 days off a low, and the Sphincters Index is up 2%. That, ladies and gentlemen, is not a good sign for bulls. Momentum is truly pathetic. And that's exactly what should be happening with a declining 4-5 month cycle and major trend. It's exactly what we've expected, an up phase that goes sideways. Does that mean Dr. Stool's interpretation that we are headed for a collapse beginning around mid month, has been correct? That, we don't know. The market could blast off Thursday and make Dr. Stool and his fellow bears look like idiots. It probably won't, but Thursday's an important day. It's the day we should begin to know. Cycle Conditions
Just In Case (7/2/01) The SPX reached its 13 day cycle up phase price projection, and fell 4 points shy of the projection for the 21 day cycle. That should have been the top, although a retest on Tuesday would be ok. If the entire forecast of a big down beginning later in July is wrong, we may know today. A number of the daily chart indicators would give buy signals if the SPX has an early fireworks show to the upside. Dr. Stool doesn't expect that to happen, but just wanted you to know, just in case. Heh, heh. Cycle Conditions
|
|
Chart Powered by METASTOCK
