|
Subscriber Sections The
Anals MoGauge © Subscription Help (Login, Password etc.) Free Forums
Resources Market Stats and Kitco Thumbnail Charts Bear
Essentials Marketviews with Ike Iossif Prudentbear.com
Humor Wall Street Follies Financial Funnies Hilarious! by stoolie prolerbear Not
In My Backyard for Capitalstool. Support the Stool! |
We
don't know and neither do they.
Chart
Courtesy of
|
S&P 500 Archive [adbox-upper.htm]Light
That sucker! (1/31/01) Get
out your lighter (1/30/01) Get
Out Your Cigar (1/26/00) Close
Enough? (1/25/01) 1372
Or Bust (1/24/01) Hockey purists will also note that the puck is on the red line. So we'll probably muck around in the zone for a few days before heading down ice. Bearanoid
(1/23/01) Paid
a Nickel- (1/22/01) Great
Bear Rallies (1/19/01) Nothing could be further from the truth. Just as bull markets spend a lot of time correcting (except bubble markets, like 1999), great bears spend a lot of time reacting. But there are so few great bears, that only old guys like Dr. Stool have any familiarity with them. Most younger analysts think the markets always act like the markets of the 90's. There have been four great bears in the last 75 years. (Need Adobe Acrobat Reader.) Each had several rallies of 5-10% or more. Except for 1929, the biggest rallies came about six to seven months after the final peak of the bull market. The S&P is now four months from its final peak. Dr. Stool, being the cranky old bear that he is, just doesn't see anything to get excited about. This great bear market is still young, and the bulls will fight it all way
the
down.
Intermediate
Uptrend?(1/19/01) Dr. Stool has this nagging suspicion that something's not right about this move. He can't quite put his finger in it, er, on it. But looking at the oscillators, there's a bunch that have only reached levels of previous peaks. Short term stochastics are (shh) overbought. Now, at the beginning of a bull move, these indicators will stay overbought for long periods. So the market is either at a bear market overbought extreme, or about to embark on a new bull run. An explosion on the opening would signal capitulation by bears, like Dr. Stool, and that should be followed by another market maker/specialist toilet flush. Very
Impressive (1/18/01) None of the indicators in the daily chart has improved its position amidst all the excitement of the past few weeks. They've simply gotten to a place from where the market can fall apart easily. One more thing. The S&P is the broadest index Dr. Stool regularly follows. But get this, the NYSE Composite, which measures all the stocks on the Big Board, fell Wednesday, 2.12 points or 0.32%. Yep, helluva rally. Bears holding their breath (1/16/01) The S&P is hanging near its upper channel boundary, as it continues to track with the Nasdaq. Dr. Stool thinks the pros will try to run the shorts one more time, before this rally finally dies. They won't get far. (1/14/01) Dum dum dadum da da dum dadum dadum. Every time the patient sits up in bed, some analyst proclaims a bottom. Look at that daily chart below. It speaks for itself. Do you see a bottom? Dr. Stool sees a downtrend. Every downtrend requires upmoves. Now here, we've had a 14 day sideways up phase. Go back to the October "bottom." Market went up for 14 days. Then what? Uh huh. And Dr. Stool notes also that this rally was far more pathetic than that one was. In other words, the market is weaker now than it was then. October, what a great month! Compared to the next two weeks, that'll look like a Sunday School picnic. Rigor
Mortis Rally (1/11/01) Dr. Stool remains convinced this was a dead man's rally. If it goes any further though, we know who's the dead man, now don't we?
Another
Nail (1/10/00) Tracking
with Nasdaq (1/9/00)
There are a few days of positive cyclicality in the very shortest cycles. However, the 4 week cycle is just topping out and will turn increasingly negative over the next two weeks. Dr. Stool sees very limited upside here. The next big move will be a selling climax (intermediate) heading into President Hoover's inauguration.
The next three weeks are a period of extremely weak cyclicality for the S&P, as for the Dow and Nasdaq. The indicators on the S&P are slightly behind the two major indexes, but they'll catch up Monday. Notice on this chart how each successive high is falling short of a downtrend channel with an increasing negative slope. This is symptomatic of gradually increasing downside momentum, which will culminate in a rout, beginning Monday. The measuring objective for the next one to three days is 1250. That sets up a move to 1180 by the end of the month. And that sets up a move to 950. Impossible to say when that'll happen, but Dr. Stool would not rule it out in the short run. This could be the crash he's been warning about.
Sayonara.
Update 1/4/01 All that sound and fury, and still the intermediate downtrend remains intact. Momentum indicators are dead in the water. The three week cycle measuring objective is 1365. That will adjust as the top begins to form. That's also where the upper channel trendline is. The bears will live to fight again and win.
S&P surprise as Fed fires early, bears massacred (1/3/01) The Fed's widely expected move came early. Everybody jumped at the same time. The S&P now has an upside objective in the 6 week cycle of 1400. The intraday cycle objective is around 1380. The indication is that the major downtrend line would be pierced, but the timing is such that it would be an exhaustion move. The dust will need to settle before Dr. Stool can make an educated guess as to whether this might turn into the intermediate bear market rally he originally expected to begin around the 20th. The shape of the pullback after a sell signal on the 13 day stochastics should give us some of the answers. After the bloodbath suffered by the bears Wednesday, Dr. Stool thinks it would be a good idea not to get right back on the horse. But he does think there will be a better point to cut losses in the next few days, that is if you didn't do it yesterday.
|
|
