|
Subscriber Sections The
Anals MoGauge © Subscription Help (Login, Password etc.) Free Forums
Resources Market Stats and Kitco Thumbnail Charts Bear
Essentials Marketviews with Ike Iossif Prudentbear.com
Humor Wall Street Follies Financial Funnies Hilarious! by stoolie prolerbear Not
In My Backyard for Capitalstool. Support the Stool! |
We
don't know and neither do they.
Chart
Courtesy of
|
S&P
500 Archive-May Long Hot Boring Summer (5/31/01) The Spoox found support in the 1250 area, which is where things congealed on the way up. A 13 day cycle low appears to be forming, which should lead to a cha cha market for the next 5-8 trading days. The 4-5 month cycle is still forming a top. The 13 day cycle up phase could form a right shoulder on the daily chart. The 4 and 6 week cycle lows project to only 1230, and the lows are due in early and mid June. This is a recipe for a very dull trading range for weeks. It looks like it's going to be a very dull early summer. The downside fireworks aren't due until late summer. Cycle Conditions
If You Think Things Are Bad Now (5/30/01) Centered moving average projections for cycles from 13 days to 10-11 weeks moved sharply lower, as expected. The entire Bull Market Baloney rally is in the process of being unwound, and then some. The index is rapidly breaking down through key short term moving averages, and after spending three days in a spike above the 153 day average, is again well below it. Dr. Stool calls this chart pattern, the finger formation, as in, "Yo, d'you just gimme da finger!?" Yes, yes, it did. And the portfolio shrinkers are beginning to feel it in their swollen, puckered, portfolios. Note on the daily charts that the 85 day stochastics, and the 21 day percentage price oscillators have just flashed sell signals. It is very, very early in the down phase of intermediate cycles. There will be some chop, with a bounce due from the 1200 area that will probably come off the 10 week cycle low in mid June. Or it coul come off the 13 day cycle low due next week. After a reaction rally, or consolidation phase, through June, and into the Fourth of July, things will begin to get really, really ugly. We can surmise what the funny mental triggers will be, but suffice to say that psychological conditions are going to be horrible through most of the summer. That is the period when money mismanagers are most likely to start throwing in the towel and start dumping all over. Looking at the cycles, if you think things are bad now, just you wait. Cycle Conditions
The Mother of All False Breakouts (5/29/01) In one of the great sucker plays of all time, the SPOOX, which is the best scorecard of how the mental institutions are playing the game, has completed a giant whipsaw. It was indeed The Mother of All False Breakouts. Step one was the formation of a massive, reverse head and shoulders bottom stretching over three months. The neckline was at 1274. The next step was a huge breakout. For good measure, they took prices far enough to explode through the 153 day moving average. Step 3-- BOOM. Drop the lid. Prices fall back through the 153 day average, which retains a negative slope. For good measure, prices tick below the neckline of that great looking breakout. Step 4 will be to flush the stocks back down the sewer up from whence they didst bubble. Experienced technicians know that it is perfectly normal for a reaction to follow a breakout. How do we know this is not one of those normal times. Look at cyclicality for starters. We know that time-wise, conditions are now becoming more and more unfavorable. There's nowhere to go but down. That's why funny mentals didn't matter two weeks ago, are now they're about to matter again. Cycle Conditions
Bears Resurrection (5/25/01) The Spoox is in the same config as its little sister index the Nasty, hovering just above the point of the breakout from the huge reverse head and shoulders that all the bulls thought was the bottom. The difference here is that both the 26 day rate of change and the 21 day stochastics have flashed strong sell signals. The Nasty is lagging a bit. In the final stages of the big rally, the index broke out of a classic chart pattern and charged through the 150 day moving average. Those two actions sucked anybody who had the slightest doubt back into the market. Perhaps more importantly it also scared the crap out of most of the shorts, forcing all but a few steely eyed diehards to cover. Now the second of those two phony "buy" signals has been reversed, and the first one is about to be shown for what it was, a false breakout. The question from here on is, with everybody who wanted in, already in, where will the demand come from. The next thing to look for will be a sell signal in the 85 day stochastics, which represents the 4-5 month cycle, and in the 21 day percentage price oscillator. They will be the final nails in the coffin. With the cycle now at its midpoint in time, the next 8-10 weeks should see resurrection for bears. Cycle Conditions
Yawn (5/24/01) The Spoox managed to keep its nose above the 150 line for another day, and looks like it needs to spend a week or two building this top. Only the 26 day ROC has flashed a sell signal. The 85 day stochastics is indicting that the 4-5 month cycle is either still weakly up, or in the early stages of top building. Either way there's not much left. It's too early for any downside projections. The targets below were the projections for the cycle highs, virtually all of which were met. Cycle Conditions
Good Bye Holy Rollers (5/23/01) All cycles from 4-5 months to 13 days topped out Monday. The market's reaction to the news that the holy rollers, and big oil, were about to lose control of the US government, was all the evidence needed. Now, instead of a government run by the right wing lunatic fringe, we have no government at all. God knows why, but for some reason the portfolio shrinkers got a little case of shaky bowels as a result. Geez, they didn't pay attention to anything else lately, like earnings for instance. Why this? The 13 day through 6-7 week cycles all met the centered moving average projections from Monday and Tuesday (see below), and lo and behold, the market cracked. See, sometimes these things really do work. On top of that, the pullback pulled the 4-5 month cycle objective down, so it looks like we may have topped out that cycle. The next few days will tell. A whipsaw move through the 150 day moving average has ridiculously bearish implications. The Spoox went through on the upside, and now it's coming back down. Some dipshit buying may come in at the 22 day average around 1270. Watch what happens there. If prices fall below the 150, and can't get up, the bull party is over. Cycle Conditions
Small Consolation (5/22/01) Moving average projections for the 13 day and 4 week cycles remained stable at 1315, indicating that at least a short term peak is at hand. Indicators are toplining, but they are configured so that a sell signal can come at any time. But, as with the Dow and Nasdaq, there are unmet targets for longer cycles. Tremendous thrust in the early stages of this rally, fed by the actions of the FBI* Director, means it will take time for both the money, and the blind faith which drove this idiocy, to subside. It'll probably run into mid-June. The 1400 target is out there, but a lot depends on the depth of the next pullback. If it's shallow, then 1400 is almost a sure thing. If the pullback is sharp, it should pull that final target down. Small consolation. In case you're wondering, Dr. Stool still thinks this is a bear market. He's willing to bet that we will see new lows before the end of this year. There are unmet long term objectives at much lower prices that will be met. It's just going to take longer. In the meantime, he doesn't think it's a good idea to short the first short term sell signal. He'll sit that one out. *Financial Bubble Inc. Cycle Conditions
Grin and Bear It (5/21/01) So mush for no chance. The Spoox did indeed break through its 150 day average. The norm would be to expect an immediate pullback, but these are not normal times. FBI Chairman Greenspurts is hyperflatulent, and the target of the flatus is the stock market. The SPX is 3.5 months form its last 4-5 month cycle high, so this thing could continue for a couple more weeks or four. The centered moving average projection for the cycle is 1375. As a died in the wool bear, Dr. Stool could not bring himself to believe those projections, but we can't let prejudice get in the way of objective journalism, now can we? 'Twould be too much like the financial media. Anyway, what's interesting about the cycle projections below is that the shorter cycles project to highs not far from here. That means that the next peak may not be THE peak. The depth of the next pullback (assuming there is one) will give us a better fix on the 4-5 month cycle high. A deep correction beginning soon will bring those projections down. But there certainly will be one more rally. Conditions should be ripe for a big dumperoo after that, when the 4-5 month cycle finally turns down. The cycle top is due in June, with the down phase to follow. Until then, guess we'll just have to grin and "bear" it. Cycle Conditions
Not Impressed (5/17/01) Dr. Stool is not an easy guy to impress. And he's not convinced that this Fed flatus rally will hold up much longer. The monthly chart tells the story. The market sobriety test line is at 1300. A breakout means the Fed has successfully reflatulated a bubble. Remember, flatus is composed largely of methane, which is both flammable, and explosive under pressure. Also heavier than air.
Let's watch the pullback and reaction, before deciding. The bet here is that there will be a sharp pullback, which the dipshits will buy, pushing prices up to another test of the downtrend in relatively short order. Then it'll be all over. For the life of him, Dr. Stool can't help but feel we've witnessed a historic blowoff. The man needs help. He's one of only six bears left in the world. Three of the others stop by every day to commiserate. The others are out there. We know they are. Chief Sponsor of FBI (5/16/01) The market proved the old adage, "Tis better to have wisdom than cahones," Wednesday. The whipsaws on the daily chart indicators were brutal. Unfortunately, whipsaws have a history of often leading to long continuations, since everybody who got faked out on the sell signal is forced to get back in. Even more unfortunate is the fact that some of that will be fellow shorts covering the positions they put on following what looked like a sure bet. The SPX broke out of a rather odd looking, reverse head and shoulders pattern. Sadly, it is now possible to make a projection on the 4-5 month cycle using centered moving averages. It's 1340-1360. That can be negated if the market does a quick about face. A pie in the face is more likely. The 10-11 week cycle now projects to 1315. Intraday stuff is signaling a high of 1284-1294. The bears greatest hope, perhaps only hope, is the long term resistance trendline on the weekly chart, which comes in right around 1290. The Fed's experiment with reflatulating a bubble seems to be working. How this will turn out in the end, nobody really knows, since it's never been tried before. The Fed, instead of being the lender of last resort, has now become the chief sponsor of FBI, Financial Bubble Inc. Mish Mash (5/15/01) If you spent 13 days in the same place, you wouldn't have much to say either. So lets just summarize.
(Mish mash is a technical analysis term. Means some are up and some are down, but nobody can tell what the hell is going on.) Of note on the daily chart is the fact that the 21 day percentage price oscillator has ticked below its 8 day moving average, a normally reliable indication that things are about to head south. If you still have any cajones, means it's time to get short. But we've heard that tune before now haven't we. Question is, are you willing to fight this toothless Fed? If ever there was a time, "Dis be it!" What Me Worry? (5/14/01) Here we are in the midst of that dipshit bounce off the short cycle lows, and what have we here? A Fed meeting you say? So what. You already know what's going to happen. Dr. Stool doesn't know and doesn't care what Alfred E. Neuman Greenspurts does. Because it doesn't matter. The market is going to do what it's going to do. And you all know what that is. What me worry? Oh, you'll see some wild gyrations around the announcement. Jeez, what if good ole What Me Worry does nothing. Since he loves surprises so much, that's about the only thing he could do that would be a surprise. Bears should only pray for such a deliverance. (Dear Load, I promise to never do another trade if you will just....) Right now, you've got one indicator on the daily chart already on a sell signal, and three others on the cusp. Unfortunately, the 8 and 13 day cycles, and maybe the 4 week cycle, just made a low yesterday. The up phase should be nasty, brutish, and short, like 15 minutes, but there could be enough gas in the old whoopee cushion to make some noise for a few more days. Dr. Stool would be shorting the hell out of that. If he had any money left. Waiting For the Big Dump (5/11/01) The Spx, joined the Nas and the Dow in rolling over and playing dead Friday. This is just the briefest of warm-ups for what lies ahead. Momentum and stochastics remain overbought. Prices are dropping but the indicators are not correcting. The decline has not yet begun. The shortest cycles, from 8 days to 4 weeks, had downside objectives of 1240. If portfolio shrinkers still have the ability to buy, they will, because they are still in a mindlessly positive frame of mind. So there could be another dipshit bounce here. A dipshit bounce is when the dip buyers buy the... well you know. If the buying materializes, we'll get an itty-bitty bounce here. But do they still have any dry powder. The way volume is shriveling up, it sure doesn't look that way. They've had a 6 week long, Fed laughing gas driven, drugged out, drunken buying orgy. The poor stupid bastards may not be able to get it up any more. On the other hand their commitments were so recent, that they probably aren't ready to squeeze out any of the swill they recently digested. They're going to want to hold on to it. It's just too soon to let go. So prices will slide grudgingly at first from lack of buying interest rather than heavy selling. Sometime over the next two months, as the market gets deeper into the down phase of the 4-5 month cycle, there's going to be some really bad news. We can't know what it is now, but when it comes, these guys are going to act like they just drank a quart of Haley's MO. They'll be dumpin' it then, that's for sure. Swollen Membranes (5/10/01) After an explosive opening, the big caps spent the day sliding. Let's face it. Nobody REALLY wants this stuff at these prices. Deep down in their hearts, even the portfolio shrinkers know it. It's just that they're only 99% invested, and they absolutely, positively, must get 100% invested, because all their jackass brethren are fully invested. We got what looks like a legitimate sell signal on the 21 day stochastics. It'll look better when it drops below 70%, but we'll take it. It looks like the 4 week, 6-7 and 10-11 week cycles did top out last week. The 8 and 13 day cycles appear to be in down phase, with a projected low of 1242. Now that's not much, true. Just keep in mind that the 10-11 week cycle is just now topping out. Peak downside momentum does not occur until well into the down phase. Somewhere, 2-4 weeks out, we'll begin to see bouts of explosive diarrhea from swollen portfolio membranes. It's just too early for that now. Market Makers Getting Loaded (5/9/01) The Spoox's narrow trading range is now 8 days old. Portfolio shrinkers are behaving as expected, buying dips, and sleeping well at night thinking they must be right, because all the other portfolio shrinkers are doing the same thing. Only problem is if they're buying , market makers are selling. The Spx is no different than the Dow or the Nas. It is overbought. It is not correcting that condition as it churns in this range. It is too weak to attack overhead supply. Dr. Stool suspects that demand from the portfolio shrinkers is being met by the specialists and market makers building their short positions. There is an avalanche of stock for sale just overhead, and the market insiders don't want to be forced to take that, because they know that public demand is all but used up. So they are keeping a lid on things in the face of steady dip buying by money mismangers. Price objectives, adjusted for the Fed revaluation, range from 1275 to 1285. We got to 1273 last week. The 13 day cycle isi currently pointing to a high of 1280, but the 8 day cycle is in a down phase, and its target is 1239. Cyclicality will be mixed for another week or so. Look for more backing and filling near the highs, as market insiders load up for the next big down leg. Rain in the Hamptons (5/8/01) The market's gone flat over the last week, but the important thing is that momentum and supply-demand indicators are not correcting. They remain ridiculously overbought, considering the longer term downtrend, and indicate a market that remains vulnerable. Can the sell signals be far behind? The 53 day stochastics, a proxy for the 10-11 week cycle, have now reached the level they reached at the tippy tops (a technical term) on the Spoox last July and September. Fair warning. After a six week rally built on nothing more than blind faith and a misunderstanding of history, the market may now be more vulnerable than ever. This is not 1998, it is 1930. Dr. Stool still doesn't expect an immediate collapse because the up phase in the 4-5 month cycle means that portfolio shrinkers will be prone to buy the dips for a few weeks. But the risks grow with each passing week. Initial waves of selling will be met with a little buying, complacency, and disinterest, but that will change. Summer should be a very dismal time on Wall Street. Portfolio shrinkers are gonna have have a lousy vacation out there in the Hamptons. It'll rain all summer. Dying Fish (5/7/01) The Spoox has been flopping around in the same range for six days now. All the while the index gets more overbought, momentum wanes, and market volume dries up. All bad signs for bulls. Dr. Stool remains less than confident because a couple of cycles are still positive. The 10-11 week cycle should be topping out, but the 4-5 month cycle is relatively young, and the 4 and 6 week cycles appear to be weakly positive after least week's little mid-week dump. Those forces probably mean there won't be any heavy selling for a week or two. However, they do not mean that buying will pick up. Most of the portfolio shrinkers have already shot their loads. Now, it'll be watch and wait for the fish to die. What bears need now is confirmation that the madness has in fact ended. That will take a price downturn, accompanied by downturns in the oscillators on the daily chart. It looks like those signals may be at hand, but be prepared for at least one or two more stabs at the 1285-95 area, the adjusted price projections for this move. Scary Movie (5/5/01) Friday was perhaps the most frightening of all for members of the bear persuasion. Unlike the Dowager, however, the SPX did not make a new high. Still, it's nervous time around Dr. Stool' office, as agitated patients line up in the waiting room. They are worried that he is about to have his stock proctology license revoked. Dr. Stool is plenty worried hisself! But he must await the verdict of Judge Market, just like the rest of us. The jury is still out. Price objectives for short term cycles have again adjusted upward, to 1275-1300. At this point, Dr. Stool really needs a down day, if his ass, and those of his bear comrades are to be saved. If prices break out above long term resistance, and the oscillators on the daily chart begin to hug the topline, it's welcome to Double Bubble time. Like the last bubble, it will end in collapse, but in the meantime, will extract its measure of pain from bears. The market often punishes being right in theory. Here's the long term view. We actually have some breathing room to 1300. Above that, we're gonna take a bubble bath again.
Summer's
Almost Here, Put Your Shorts On (5/3/01) It looks like that 1273 will stand as the top of this move, although as devoutly as we may wish it, it probably won't be straight down from here. The 21 week cycle, which is only 6 weeks along, will be exerting upward pressure for another month, and under those conditions prices will tend to hug the major downtrend line. The price objectives for this cycle were 1255 to 1285. Positive mo is now on the wane, so it's a fair bet that we won't see 1273 again, although the portfolio shrinkers will still be buying to try and support their recent moronic action. Their pathetic attempts will be met by corporate, and market insider selling. The 10-11 week cycle is now in week 6 so it will be heading down. This has been the dominant trading cycle. The 4 and 6-7 week cycles are due to turn up in a day or two, so a head and shoulders could develop on the chart. Dr. Stool is suppositoring a 1250-1200 trading range for the next few weeks, then a big spew. But the really big diarrhea wouldn't be until late summer, when all cycles are in gear to the downside once again. The market should really be cramping and heaving in August-September. The next few weeks will be the time to put on those shorts. Depend on them for when the bear returns. Picture Worth A Thousand Words (5/2/01) Dr. Stool is going to let this picture tell you his opinion of this rally.
For those of you who prefer to read, prices have reached primary downtrend resistance represented by the 7 month moving average. The 12 month percentage price oscillator (PPO), and stochastics indicate so far that the rally has been nothing more than a big old bear market rally, which has now reached its moment of truth. Reports of the bear's demise are much exaggerated, since there's no evidence whatsoever that the major downtrend has been reversed. What you've been hearing about the bottom being in is the same mindless bullishness that you always hear form the same mindless jackasses who have a track record of always making the loudest noise when they are the most wrong. So why believe them now? Residual mo may carry this thing to 1300. That's what the centered moving average projections seem to be saying at this point. Assuming that did occur, it still wouldn't change the long term picture. Dr. Stool doesn't think it will happen. The 26 day rate of change, a proxy for the 10 week cycle, is acting toppy. Short term stochastics have remained between 96% an 100%, a level indicative of absolute hysteria, out of this world euphoria, and mindless insanity, for two solid weeks. Mo is beginning to falter, and if there's no upside follow through on Thursday, both the PPO and the 21 day stochastics should flash sell signals. Is It Duckcrap? (5/1/01) Hmm, Dr. Stool seems to be repeating himself. And the market doesn't seem to be listening. Well, if it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, and poops like a duck, then that is duckcrap all over your pool deck. This market sure has been looking, acting and smelling like a duck for the last month. Seems that most pundits have concluded that it is indeed a real duck. Why hasn't Dr. Stool seen the duck crap? Look at that reverse head and shoulders bottom formation on the daily chart. Sure looks good doesn't it? Just one problem. It hasn't reversed anything. Yet. the neckline is still intact. And the downtrend is still intact. So Dr. Stool will just sit here with his arms crossed, and say show me. I don't see no duck. |
|
