Guest Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 FRE & FNM taking gas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calculus Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Funny thing about Crapvision.When a Dow stock is torpedoed, and the average is red, the shills always point out that if it wasn't for XYZ being down, the Dow would be positive. Today, without IBM, the Dow would be red, no mention of that! Mad H Didn't you know there are now two Dow's 1) Dow Jones 2) Dow Jones (ex-worst performer (s)) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 I posted last night what Marty Weiss had written in his Monday letter on the Insurance Companies and it is coming true for those interested check the post-Weiss said the corruption and kickbacks defy belief and have been going on for years, he said that he was threatened on more than one occassion for writing about it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Anyone with news on the plane crash in Atlanta? haven't seen anything, but I'm confident it's not terrorism small plane headed for Venice Florida in bad weather crashed near commercial building. looks like an unfortunate accident Don't forget Venice was where the 'magic Dutchman' Rudy Dekkers and his flying skool were based ... Just imagine if that was Jimmy Carter headed to Florida to respond to election complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted October 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 JPM -3% one by on ethe big derivative players are being shot. This is a big change 1) Counterparty risk ratings are dependent on capital base (MMC split 2:1 in a most unfortunate way, AIG has taken a severe beating) 2) Insurance companies are the buyers of last resort in the corp bond market (one of the primary reasons corporate spreads are so tight) 3) One of the reasons stocks have been well bid is because of corporate spreads. We are starting to see spreads widen in insurance, car makers and select financials with large derivative exposure. Uh huh ... Sounds like the first steps in one plausible scenario for an 'unwinding' of deRIBITives -- (so called because they're denominated in 'green frogskins' ... a/k/a dollahs). Well done Rog. Tanks. Mad Hatter Al will have a lot more to worry about than a few "pockets of severe stress within the household sector" when big holes start opening in the credit bubble and liquidity starts pouring out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Rising interest rates make borrowing less attractive. This decreased demand slows credit/money growth in the system. Less money is deflationary. Yep ... that's the other line in the supply-demand graph. You and I will cut back our borrowing as rates go higher, because we can't afford it ... or because the banksters cut us off. But there's one actor in the economy who isn't constrained by the traditional supply-demand curve. That's GOVERNMENT. Gov't WILL BORROW its fiscal deficit regardless of rates. The presence of this 'wild card' sovereign actor, with the power to tax and print currency, nullifies the traditional credit supply-demand analysis which does constrain households and businesses. Central planning of credit will blow out ... in an orgy of inflation. **sigh** You and HB are going to be proven so wrong. I told you to throw out you college econ books - they are totally worthless in the current environment unless you need a door stop. And with that I'm outahere permanently Ciao Stoolies and may the farts be with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pistolpapa Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 The Fed, which is made up of large private international financial institutions, would have to monetize the difference. Why should they do it? They didn't do it in the 30's. "Liquidate Everything" was their motto. That's certainly the crux of the matter. What MAY HAVE changed is that the 'private financial institutions' feel they can manage in an inflationary environment ... whereas deflation means their assets get wiped out, or nationalized, or both. If I were a bankster, I know which scenario I'd choose ... This scenario will be true if all the cards are on the table where we can see them. These are banksters. They cheat for a living. And this is where the dreaded conspiracy theories become interesting. Are they holding a big pot of gold somewhere where we can't see it? If they are, they could care less about the assets that we can see. Crash and burn it, then start over with a new technology. No cash -- No tax evaders -- No drug smugglers Everything on their computer screen where they can watch it (you and me). Dreamers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted October 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Ranger Rick pointed out that the Fed funds futures now show a 40% probability of a 2nd rate hike to 2.25% by the end of this year ... up from a 25% probability y'day. Even the next Nov. 10th hike to 2.00% is going to sodomize the economy and stock market, I think. Snarliing bearish ... Al's Mad Tea Party at the Eccles Building on November 10 will probably decide to raise rates and at the same maintain, or more likely increase, the growth rate of the monetary base. However in their haze they may not clearly notice that the money supply, stagnating for months, will roll over and start a descent. Today's housing figures and weekly MoGauge reports indicate housing has topped. Housing is the most important source of new credit. New credit drives the money supply. What will he do? Run all the faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 And with that I'm outahere permanently Well, I hope you're kidding. If we all agreed, there wouldn't be anything to talk about. How about a little magnanimity toward the purblind ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Yo Bobby-"Outta here permanently" ??? Why-for! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Yobob: Do not go my man. You are the only deflationist around. And, you are one who can articulate the case so well. Hell , the world is full of inflationists ( and who knows they may be proven correct) we need at least one opoosing view from the madness of the crowd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted October 19, 2004 Author Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Rising interest rates make borrowing less attractive. This decreased demand slows credit/money growth in the system. Less money is deflationary. Yep ... that's the other line in the supply-demand graph. You and I will cut back our borrowing as rates go higher, because we can't afford it ... or because the banksters cut us off. But there's one actor in the economy who isn't constrained by the traditional supply-demand curve. That's GOVERNMENT. Gov't WILL BORROW its fiscal deficit regardless of rates. The presence of this 'wild card' sovereign actor, with the power to tax and print currency, nullifies the traditional credit supply-demand analysis which does constrain households and businesses. Central planning of credit will blow out ... in an orgy of inflation. **sigh** You and HB are going to be proven so wrong. I told you to throw out you college econ books - they are totally worthless in the current environment unless you need a door stop. And with that I'm outahere permanently Ciao Stoolies and may the farts be with you. If deflation wins out, being short the market is the best bet. The market is very sensitive to liquidity and will suffer greatly. If inflation accelerates, stocks may more or less stagnate but commodities will continue to rise. I find it very hard to envision any long term scenario where the dollar will not go to zero and maintian it's value, so I'm mostly betting on the later and trading the former on the short side in case I'm wrong. PS Why leave? Your comments have been received positively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Einstein Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 The Fed, which is made up of large private international financial institutions, would have to monetize the difference. Why should they do it? They didn't do it in the 30's. "Liquidate Everything" was their motto. That's certainly the crux of the matter. What MAY HAVE changed is that the 'private financial institutions' feel they can manage in an inflationary environment ... whereas deflation means their assets get wiped out, or nationalized, or both. If I were a bankster, I know which scenario I'd choose ... This scenario will be true if all the cards are on the table where we can see them. These are banksters. They cheat for a living. And this is where the dreaded conspiracy theories become interesting. Are they holding a big pot of gold somewhere where we can't see it? If they are, they could care less about the assets that we can see. Crash and burn it, then start over with a new technology. No cash -- No tax evaders -- No drug smugglers Everything on their computer screen where they can watch it (you and me). Dreamers. No cash -- No tax evaders -- No drug smugglers sounds like a pefect set up for GOLD and a black market to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Yobob: Do not go my man. You are the only deflationist around. Save the endangered species! Errr, specie ... just buy gold, anyway ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobbing Head Bear Posted October 19, 2004 Report Share Posted October 19, 2004 Without the fear of inflation, there would be ZERO reasons to buy stocks or hold stocks for that matter. They want you to believe in the church of inflate to keep you in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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