Mars Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 Someone posted way early this morning-"What caused the top in 2000???" another Newbie said the Russian crisis- look time to restate the disclaimer-if you are new do not do what we do this is where the Big Boys live and have the Scar Tissue to prove it-just watch, learn and listen-if you don't know why the top happened in 2000 you do not belong here for your own self preservation! I posted the "why" question. I wanted to stimulate a discussion of the reasons for that particular crash with an objective of perhaps comparing them to the current cycle (which I believe to be different). I have traded the market for years and stopped in the mid-90's because something smelled bad - nothing was working right any longer and it stunk. Turned out to be the effect of hedge funds and their prediliction to "buy the dip". In retrospect had someone followed along he/she might have made a fortune because "buy the dip" has been the one method since 95 that has consistently made money. And I'm not talking buy and hold because there aren't that many retail buyers out there any longer. All the retail is in the mutuals and the mutuals are "dip hitters" from way back. There aren't even that many day traders out there any longer. And most of those left are gaming a few low end stocks for penny moves. Because I wasn't trading any more I more or less backed away from the market and went on to other pursuits (forex). I know more about technical analysis than 99.9999% of the sheeple on this planet and have rejected most of the common crap such as MACD in favor of my own methods. They might not be much better but at least they aren't as boring or predictable. I'm a good forex day-trader - I may lose a trade every now and then but so what I keep the risk limited and stop tight. I am neither a bull nor a bear and my signature says it all. This is about the third or fourth time I've gotten a smackdown on this board so I'm just going back to lurking - obviously I can't add anything to brilliance in the room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 Regarding the North Korea blast, there was a Moon Conjunct Saturn Thursday. Normally there is some kind of tragic explosion. We also had the bombing in Indonesia. Interesting how this didn't come out in the news until this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 Sorry,bit late but great opening Yobob! MH great contributions as usual. Only one point about silver usage for archival photo printing--- ( In fact since silver is still needed in digital photgraphy if you plan on printing a lasting picture and is consumed in the production of the camera and of the various storage mediums, it is quite probable that the advent of digital photography has actually increased demand.) That was correct until now and printing digital files on to paper for the consumer still uses silver-based paper because it's cheaper and faster. However,for pro use large Epson inkjets using pigment inks promise 100-year achival printing without silver. For the foreseeable future silver based systems will probably provide the best mix of quality/longevity/speed-price for consumers but as the introduction of digital imaging has decimated the retail photo finishing trade,it's difficult to imagine that more silver will be required. (Remember when everyone used to have every photo on a roll en-printed--those days are gone.Consumers now select which digital shots merit printing.) As to the other applications of silver in cameras and storage devices,I have no idea how much is used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 This is about the third or fourth time I've gotten a smackdown on this board so I'm just going back to lurking - obviously I can't add anything to brilliance in the room. I thought it was a legitimate question, Mars ... "What caused the top in 2000?" And I'll bet it's like asking "What caused Depression I" ... the answers are like the proverbial six blind men inspecting an elephant. Aside from the overvaluation associated with the mania, I would propose the tightening of liquidity induced by multiple Federal Reserve rate hikes starting in mid-1999 as the proximate cause of the top: Recently I've been propounding Edson Gould's "three steps and a stumble" rule. Sometimes it takes more than three ... in 1999-2000 it apparently took five hikes to slay the monster. However, the year 2000 peak seemed like the real deal -- in E-woof terms, something like an extended 5th wave capping off a major 18-year move (a wave of large degree). Today, in 2004, this seems more like a wave 2 or B-wave correction ... an echo of the 2000 peak, with the sizzle but not the substance. It should take less, in terms of funnymental liquidity tightening, to make it fold like a cheap suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The brown one Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 have traded the market for years and stopped in the mid-90's because something smelled bad - nothing was working right any longer and it stunk. Turned out to be the effect of hedge funds and their prediliction to "buy the dip". In retrospect had someone followed along he/she might have made a fortune because "buy the dip" has been the one method since 95 that has consistently made money. And I'm not talking buy and hold because there aren't that many retail buyers out there any longer. All the retail is in the mutuals and the mutuals are "dip hitters" from way back. There aren't even that many day traders out there any longer. And most of those left are gaming a few low end stocks for penny moves. Because I wasn't trading any more I more or less backed away from the market and went on to other pursuits (forex). I know more about technical analysis than 99.9999% of the sheeple on this planet and have rejected most of the common crap such as MACD in favor of my own methods. They might not be much better but at least they aren't as boring or predictable. I'm a good forex day-trader - I may lose a trade every now and then but so what I keep the risk limited and stop tight. I am neither a bull nor a bear and my signature says it all. This is about the third or fourth time I've gotten a smackdown on this board so I'm just going back to lurking - obviously I can't add anything to brilliance in the room. And I'm not talking buy and hold because there aren't that many retail buyers out there any longer. All the retail is in the mutuals and the mutuals are "dip hitters" from way back. I'm sure that this is the truth--so any active traders here are simply playing against the MF complex and da Boyz' bots! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 Robert Rubin is going to be on ABC between 9:30 and 10 a.m. est speaking about the pending economic calamity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 I'm bothered by the N. Korea blast. This happened Thursday. The government/media sure took their time telling us sheep about this one. I guess they didn't want anything to interfere with their 9/11 propaganda puke festival that was/is all over the TV. Have to release the news while the sheep are sleeping and the markets are closed. They still aren't saying it was a nuke . Hmmm, big blast with a mushroom cloud... "Pre-emptive "strike"? Accident? Test? http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/new...0409120002.html http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/internation...h-minister.html http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/09/12/nkorea.blast/ "The U.S. official said the cloud could be the result of a forest fire." http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A...anguage=printer http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A...anguage=printer http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3648988.stm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 This is an extremely heady discussion for a nice late summer's day. Let me jump in with my two cents (about the price of a dollar these days), We have to admit that this time it is different. The global economy coupled with global instantaneous communications has subsumed every single economic theory ever proposed and whole lot of the economic BS as well. Start with the proposition that every currency is directly related to every other currency. I can express an equivalent even instanteneous value for anything in just about any currency I choose. That is, something that costs x dollars will cost y euros will cost z yen will cost a' GBP at this moment in time. Consequently is there really a "reserve" currency any longer or is there rather a reserve "index". From a legal viewpoint the US dollar has been declared the primary currency against which all others are valued. But once all others are valued against the dollar then for all practical purposes any currency can easily be substituted for the dollar in any transaction and this happens quite frequency in international trade. And please I am not suggesting "static" what I am saying is that if A-B goes up then B-C will react in one manner, B-D in another but the reactions will be more or less predictable. Foreign exchange has become so tightly synchronized that what effects one will simultaneously affect all to the degree made necessary by the transaction. For example if an event occurs that increases the value of euro against the dollar but does not have the same effect on pound against the dollar then the value of the euro will also increase against the pound (a euro will be worth a larger fraction of a pound). In the old days pre-internet these transactions could take some minutes to occur and there were a lot opportunities for arbitrage. Those days are gone. So what would happen in theory if the dollar would lose 40% of its value? First, its value relative to what? The only answer of course is the basket of majors. Each of the majors to one degree or another would increase in value (relative to the dollar) more or less the same amount. But their relationships to each other will remain relatively stable. This would give the US a tremendous international trade advantange and I can guarantee that companies would take maximum benefit from it. All of a sudden US goods and services and everything else would be dirt cheap and all foreign products would be skyhigh (in terms of US consumption). However, the foreign countries themselves would not have an equivalent advantage even against one another. Given that sort of situation I believe that long before the dollar loses 40% of its value the foreign banks will intervene in the market place as a group to maintain the dollars current relationship with their currencies. They have printing presses too. Now this is where it gets flaky (as if it hasn't up till now). If you act to debase all currencies an equivalent amount as they relate to one another what you have done is really nothing except add more of the currencies into the mix. But the fact is you are holding contracts that can be perpetually rolled over and never exercised. So what you are really doing is holding each others currency hostage in order to keep the playing field level for all of the major players and damn the little guys. We can't really compare Argentina in this discussion with the US because Argentina really isn't that big, its currency is easily manipulated, and much of their problem stemmed from currency spot traders shorting with every yen, pfennig, and penny they could find to make the margin requirements. The destabilization of the currency that resulted caused a run on the banks and the rest, as they say, is history. BWTFDIK Frist off Mars, I don't think anybody slapped you, at least not intentionally and I for one hope you don't stay a lurker. You can be arrested for that you know. I believe your post here is spot on. It is basically what my two remaining brain cells have come to agree on but unfortunately with those two cells occupied contemplating, there is nothing left with which to verbalize. As I said, I believe we are in the midst of competitive devaluations now ( as evidenced by the outworldly purchases of bonds with recylced $US by Asia), but in a totally fiat system with no stable benchmark against which to measure it really won't appear as such. IMO only gold can fulfill that role as the benchmark and for now that concept has been thoroughly rejected by all of the major players. Measuring one ruler with another ruler tells you nothing. There has to be a standard against which all rulers are measured. Regarding the silver in photography, IMO the bottom line is still zero change in supply or demand due to recycling. Digital items such as cameras or CDs/DVDs consume silver with virtually no recycling occurring. It is possible to recover that silver but with environmental laws and the cost of implementing such recycling as well as the cost of delivering such items to any recycling center, it is unlikely it would be done on a global scale without a much, much higher silver price. Some recycling is occuring from electronics but to my knolwedge most of it is occurring in places that have essentially no environemental laws in a very low tech manner. Think China. Our current landfills might be the "mines" of the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 Mars- I did not mean to offend you, my intent was to merely put forward a disclaimer to newbies as I do from time to time for their own protection. You have obviously been around the block so I mis read your question. Don't lurk keep posting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 I'm bothered by the N. Korea blast. This happened Thursday. The government/media sure took their time telling us sheep about this one. I guess they didn't want anything to interfere with their 9/11 propaganda puke festival that was/is all over the TV. Have to release the news while the sheep are sleeping and the markets are closed. They still aren't saying it was a nuke . Hmmm, big blast with a mushroom cloud... "Pre-emptive "strike"? Accident? Test? http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/new...0409120002.html http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/internation...h-minister.html http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/asiapcf/09/12/nkorea.blast/ "The U.S. official said the cloud could be the result of a forest fire." http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A...anguage=printer http://www.washingtonpost.com/ac2/wp-dyn/A...anguage=printer http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/3648988.stm There should be no need for guessing as to whether this is a nuke test or not. There are plenty of atmospheric monitoring stations around the globe which would easily detect a nuclear detonation or any other nuclear accident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 Like Purdy I'm puzzled and concerned about the Mushroom cloud over NK. It is very strange the area is almost right on the China/NK border and so far not a peep out of China?? Iraq the last 24 hours has been one large disaster. Cnn in their lead story speak of a Bradley vehicle that was bombed and then destroyed by a Gunship "for the protection of the Iraqui people and to stop looting"..the problem was the Gunship took out the Bradley alright and the crowd gathered around it...Madness! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 Iraq the last 24 hours has been one large disaster.? Cnn in their lead story speak of a Bradley vehicle that was bombed and then destroyed by a Gunship "for the protection of the Iraqui people and to stop looting"..the problem was the Gunship took out the Bradley alright and the crowd gathered around it...Madness! Fierce Fighting Erupts Near Baghdad 'Green Zone' http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...id=540&ncid=716 Rocket and mortar fire erupted about 5:30 a.m. and continued into the morning. Several rounds landed in the Green Zone, raising clouds of black smoke and triggering warning sirens. also: http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...&e=5&u=/ap/iraq BAGHDAD, Iraq - Militants pounded central Baghdad on Sunday with one of their most intense mortar barrages ever, targeting the Green Zone and destroying a U.S. vehicle along a major street. At least 25 people were killed and more than 100 were wounded ? some of them when a U.S. helicopter fired at crowds around the burning vehicle. ************************* if Meet the Press is scheduled again today and you can catch it or DVR/VCR it... Seymour Hersh was really something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 ........Since the last recession ended in late 2001, the US economy has drawn unusual support from several artificial factors -- namely, massive policy stimulus (monetary and fiscal), saving depletion, the levering of assets, and the costless funding of domestic growth by foreign central banks. Hooked on the high-powered ?steroids? of such extraordinary life-support measures, America hasn?t had to rely on the internal fuel of accelerating wage income generation that normally facilitates a transition from recovery to expansion. And that?s for good reason -- there has been an extraordinary and enduring shortfall in wage income generation since the inception of the current recovery. Based on data over the first 32 months of this upturn, real wage and salary disbursements have recorded a cumulative increase of just 2.2%. By contrast, by this same juncture in the previous six business cycles, real wage income had recorded a 10.6% average increase. Had wage income generation during this expansion matched the composite profile of past cycles, American consumers would have had an additional $339 billion of discretionary purchasing power at their disposal. That?s the equivalent of 4.3% of total real disposable personal income -- hardly a trivial sum by any standards. ......... .........Moreover, major retailers reported disappointing back-to-school sales in August and there was renewed softness in motor vehicle sales as well. Meanwhile there are signs of mounting inventory backups -- a classic warning sign of production adjustments to come. Unfortunately, the inventory data lag other statistics, but it now looks as if total business stocks rose by at least 0.9% in July following a 1.0% increase in June -- marking the sharpest back-to-back monthly gains since before the last recession. The recent back-up in stocks has been especially noticeable in the motor vehicles sector -- both for domestically-located producers and for America?s new China-based supply chain. ........ ........But the most fascinating insight of all into business attitudes may be the $38.7 billion spike in corporate stock buyback announcements that occurred in July -- the strongest such surge in 20 years and fully four times the average monthly pace of the past year. This, perhaps more than anything, puts Corporate America?s cards squarely on the table. Awash in newfound earnings and cash flow, companies would rather buy their own shares than embark on growth oriented strategies of hiring, boosting compensation, and adding to productive capacity. This is not as shocking as it may seem at first blush. I have long believed that capital investment and hiring are driven far more by future demand expectations than by the oft-volatile ups and downs of the profits cycle. ....... Macro Man Roach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 5 mins. ago trotting out Powell to downplay NK blast http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...korea_explosion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 12, 2004 Report Share Posted September 12, 2004 Cities in the center of Iraq are out of control, while cities in the north oil producing zone and the south oil producing zone are under control. Concepts of holding elections in those cities which are under control, while ignoring those cities which are not under control are beginning to be floated. Remember the Northern and Southern No Fly Zones? It looks to me like a divided Iraq is in the plans...leaving the center with no oil and total chaos, while those regions with the oil are rewarded for their good behavior...allowed to vote, and they will demand that the American troops remain to protect them from those in the center of the country. The north is annexed to Turkey and the south is annexed to Kuwait...and we own both. Divide and Conquer. What is left of the center of Iraq will have no oil and no access to a port. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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