[aussiebear]

Found in a Hong Kong foot-massage therapist’s office.

[aussiebear]

http://finance.yahoo.com/intlindices

[aussiebear]

http://money.cnn.com...s/morning_call/










http://www.kitco.com




http://www.kitconet....ase_metals.html

Energy futures

[aussiebear]

Bouncing around so far. All Ords -0.2% with REITS going into reverse, -1.1%, IT -0.9% and Energy -0.4%. Not too much happening on the upside, Telecomms and Healthcare +0.6% and Consumer Staples +0.3%.

[Rationalize]

aussiebear, on Aug 12 2009, 10:45 AM, said:

Bouncing around so far. All Ords -0.2% with REITS going into reverse, -1.1%, IT -0.9% and Energy -0.4%. Not too much happening on the upside, Telecomms and Healthcare +0.6% and Consumer Staples +0.3%.

Should be interesting over the next few weeks, as the Aussie government debates climate change legislation.

Deciding which industry to doom to failure...

Coal? Aluminium? Gas? Agriculture?

Central planning, by another name.

[swordfish]

There are couple things which is missing in the news on this board.

1. CHINA decided that will buy only TIPS bonds from USA
2. Having in mind this, BEN have to STOP QE immedietly, which was already communicated last week be other people from FED (news today probably at FOMC meeting)
3. USD will get stronger eventually
4. Commodities will get cheaper because of death of hyperinflation argument
5. EM markets will fall (having in mind falling commodities and stronger USD)
6. Maybe china will come back to buying TIPS bonds of USA, so there will be strong demand (look at yesterdat bid ratio)
7. we are going to have prolonged deflation - todays yeilds on bonds are BLESSING
8. I dont know what will happen to stocks - down?

FXP, EDZ good choice. Thansk Sudaca and others for reminding me about this ETFs.

[swordfish]

6 august news
More TIPS for China

Quote

Wall Street Journal, AUGUST 6, 2009

U.S., in Nod to China, to Sell More TIPS
By ROB COPELAND and MAYA JACKSON RANDALL

The Treasury Department, responding to growing demand from China and other investors, will boost the sale of inflation-protected bonds that hold their value as consumer prices rise....

Treasury officials need to ensure demand from China, the largest holder of U.S. government debt. Last week's auctions of fixed-rate notes saw lukewarm demand from China and other investors. Chinese officials had indicated they want inflation-protected securities, especially as the U.S. economy starts to recover....

Of the $6.66 trillion of government bonds issued between Oct. 1, 2008 and June 30 of this year, just $44 billion were TIPS....

http://boards.fool.c...sp?mid=27865085

Treasury's Debt Plan: More Sales of TIPS
http://online.wsj.co...2224006411.html

[swordfish]

Shanghai Composite Index is falling 4.25%

[aussiebear]

All Ords managed to crawl back into the green closing up a tepid +0.3%. Sectors were moribund with the biggest gainer being Healthcare +1% followed by Financials +0.6% and Miners +0.4%. At the other end, Utilities -0.8%, Consumer Discretionary -0.6% and Energy -0.5%.

Some heavy duty falls in Asia: China -4.7%, Honkers -2.6%, India -2% and Nikkers -1.4%.


Over to UK/Europe:

Footsie




DAX




CAC 40

[aussiebear]

swordfish, on Aug 12 2009, 02:42 PM, said:

There are couple things which is missing in the news on this board.

1. CHINA decided that will buy only TIPS bonds from USA
2. Having in mind this, BEN have to STOP QE immedietly, which was already communicated last week be other people from FED (news today probably at FOMC meeting)
3. USD will get stronger eventually
4. Commodities will get cheaper because of death of hyperinflation argument
5. EM markets will fall (having in mind falling commodities and stronger USD)
6. Maybe china will come back to buying TIPS bonds of USA, so there will be strong demand (look at yesterdat bid ratio)
7. we are going to have prolonged deflation - todays yeilds on bonds are BLESSING
8. I dont know what will happen to stocks - down?

FXP, EDZ good choice. Thansk Sudaca and others for reminding me about this ETFs.

Sounds to me like China expects inflation not deflation in which case USD will go down and commodity prices will rise???

[aussiebear]

India’s Factory Output Increases at Fastest Pace in 16 Months

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- India’s industrial production increased at the fastest pace in 16 months in June, adding to signs that Asia’s third-largest economy has escaped the worst of the global recession.

Output at factories, utilities and mines jumped 7.8 percent from a year earlier after a revised 2.2 percent gain in May, the statistics agency said in New Delhi today. That was more than double the 3.8 percent rise expected by economists.

[Plantagenet]

Following up on the China / TIPS discussion:

• China is going to get a lesson in hedonic manipulation if they rely on TIPS. (Mr. Geithner will now open the envelop revealing the amount you will be paid).
  
• The CNBC article mentions the TBAC estimates:

Quote

The Treasury's borrowing advisory committee estimated that the Treasury's net debt issuance for fiscal 2009, which ends Sept. 30, would be $1.5 trillion to $2.05 trillion. This would fall to $1 trillion to $1.6 trillion for 2010.

Note that the uncertainty for the year ending in seven weeks is $550 Billion!

[ChickenLittle]

The economy is like a pickup truck that was driven off the cliff and landed nose first 500 feet below.
Bennie says - "well it seems to have stopped falling." ( Brilliant cuz he went to Princeton)
we say " but what about the people in the veeehickle"?
CNBC says : the rear axle is in better condition than expected.
" But what about the PEOPLE"?
CNBC says " there you gpo again with all that doom and gloom. look the paint job has held up better than expected"

Roubini says " well - if it rains and there is a mud slide - it could go down more"

" What about the gddamm PEOPLE"?

"There ya go again with that unpatriotic, negative stuff - just look the tire - the left rear one is like NEW"

[aussiebear]

U.K. Unemployment Climbs to Highest Level in 14 Years

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. unemployment rose to the highest level in 14 years as companies continue to cut jobs even as the worst recession in at least a generation begins to ease.

The number of people seeking work in the three months through June rose 220,000 to 2.44 million, the most since 1995, the Office for National Statistics said in London today. A separate measure showing claims for jobless benefit climbed by 24,900 in July to 1.58 million. The median forecast of 24 economists in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 28,000 increase.

Mounting job cuts threaten to hinder Prime Minister Gordon Brown’s re-election campaign for a vote he must hold by June 2010. The Bank of England, which said on Aug. 6 the recession had been worse than anticipated, expects unemployment to keep climbing long after the slump has ended.

[aussiebear]

European Industrial Production Unexpectedly Declines

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- European industrial production unexpectedly declined in June, suggesting the region’s economy may struggle to emerge from the recession.

Output in the 16-nation euro area dropped 0.6 percent from May, led by a 4.2 percent decline in production of durable consumer goods, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. Economists had predicted a gain of 0.3 percent, according to the median of 30 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. From a year earlier, June output fell 17 percent.