[Charmin]

QUOTE (DrStool @ Jan 30 2009, 01:52 PM)
"This is a very key point, and critical for your understanding. As clearly explained in the Wall Street Examiner Professional Edition Fed Report, every dollar spent on ECONOMIC BAILOUT, is BEARISH for the markets.

The government does not care about saving Wall Street. It does not care about saving the stock market. The only aim is to to stop an economic meltdown. Unfortunately, they are destroying the finances and creditworthiness of the US Gummit in the process. Therefore the program will not, and cannot work. Instead, it will bring on a reodoring of the world in ways we simply cannot clearly know, or perhaps, even imagine."


I attached a document by Marty Chenard about the erratic dollar. I'd like to think I know the outcome of this one.

Attached File(s)

•  Jan._30_The_Dollar.doc (68.5K)
  Number of downloads: 42

[bearvest]

GOLD:

Stochastics on the daily and weekly charts is over 80. Price is nearing resistance at 930 - 40.

Friday, GOLD threw a party and no one came.

I'm taking all my chips off the table this week.

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[AgentSmith]

If you are looking for some different ideas, here's a few lists I've put together. Some of the usual suspects but my focus is on those obscure companies never talked about. Many are micro cap stocks ('course aren't most resources stocks these days?!?).

The premium is obviously being given to gold then silver producers with strong cash flow followed by explorers with strong balance sheets & assets. A few below could be in trouble, but in general I've tried to put together those that will survive this. This market is going to keep grinding in a range to weed out all the weaklings .. this culling is not over IMO. The weakest rolled over at the slightest pressure, more to come.

There are a few copper/base metals juniors mixed in but in general I've avoided including them. I give a few the benefit of the doubt if they have some gold/silver.

1-yr snapshots:

http://stockcharts.c...andleg...GPR.TO,SPM.TO|D
http://stockcharts.c...php/candleg...I,CAT.V,GOZ.V|D
http://stockcharts.c.../php/candleg...,GIX.TO,FMM.V|D
http://stockcharts.c...php/candleg...O,GNG.V,FVI.V|D
http://stockcharts.c.../php/candleg...,RDK.V,MAI.TO|D

I have to chuckle at the SMC 1-yr chart, which still looks so lowly despite having done a x10 in a few months. As I mentioned in the other thread, I think we are near a short-term high (monday morning), small pullback (3-day) that should be bought & sold at the high .9x region. After that I will be selling out and won't be back in for a few months .. that's my rough battle plan. Expecting SMC "news" Monday morning .. looking for that new Orosi 43-101 (smells like good news to sell into...).

Despite my belief we have a strong monday morning in SMC, I started selling a little .66, .71 Friday. I had sold all my CXZ (mostly from .13, sold @ .16-.18), FRG, & GPRLF as soon as the deal was announced and put all the cash into SMC at .47, .49, .51, .52. So Friday I bought 40k CXZ back at .156/.16. I'm waiting on FRG but it is just about to breakout (again). I picked up another 10k FRLLF @ .17 and the 20k GIX.TO I posted.

Many of the stocks I've posted in the links I'm waiting on to buy or have/am buying for just a trade (juniors will continue to blaze higher). The next major low, wherever that is (2 different scenarios as I see it and they have already been alluded to by dharma and TCG), will be where I pick at the bones of the above companies w/ a long-term view in mind.

[Ageka]

If the peak of the 12 candle cycle is close these microcaps don't look that healthy
I have Minefinders and Drooy and I will include TRE in the lot

[dharma]

friday is a marker. gold made new highs for the move and xau/hui did not. gold is in resistance, however triple tops almost never hold. if there is upside on monday , and xau/hui do not make new highs, then the correction is upon us. this correction should be a retrace of this entire upmove from the lows. the risk/reward ratio is much less favorable here. be careful. i still have the 9-14th, but if the action does not confirm the uptrend i will peel away trading positions. dharma

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Betrayed: the story of Aurelian Resources



Hitler's reaction to Aurelian buyout
(Use your 'space bar' to stop and view the subtitles)

[AgentSmith]

Many of the stocks listed barely have a pulse so saying they don't look healthy is a real understatement. Let me restate this: barely having a pulse in this environment is not necessarily a bad thing. The analogy: hibernation. The example: CZN.TO. For its class, there is no company better positioned than CZN.TO. It is a hibernating seed ready to burst with life with the spring thaw. Flush with cash, low overhead/cash-burn, a glorious deposit (have you seen the grades of Prairie Creek?) that is ready to essentially have the switch turned on - when the time is right - obviously not now in the dead of winter. Poor SIL and all the others who built mines w/ debt just as winter started. I will continue to opportunistically add to CZICF, without fear. That said, I wouldn't touch many of the others for nothing but a short-term trade. But, there will come a time..

I had no company at SMC .07 - .14 when I was banging the table and backing up the truck. As my brother-in-law jokes, I was raised by wolves .. I don't mind running alone x10.


Is anyone interested at Minera Andes MAI.TO / MNEAF at these prices? mto.v? goz.v/csg.v/sgr.v/smc (on pullbacks). These are small relatively unknown producers. Quite the premiums being given to them...and for good reason. My opinion? Throw a dart at any of these after a 2-day pullback for big profits in short-order.

[Charmin]

This past week:

Consists of stocks that are in the Top 5%
of a Relative Strength Database of 5,600 stocks
which closed up at least 2% on at least 1.5x Average Daily Volume.

1/26
UXG, DROOY, GRS, AUY, RBY, AZK

1/27
SMC, VGZ, UXG

1/28
ANV, UXG

1/29
UXG, VGZ, GFI, ANV, EGO, HMY, IAG, AEM, NEM

1/30
ANV, UXG, RBY

[AgentSmith]

Whadda I Do Whadda I Do, on Jan 31 2009, 01:49 PM, said:

Betrayed: the story of Aurelian Resources

Hitler's reaction to Aurelian buyout
(Use your 'space bar' to stop and view the subtitles)

I watch these over and over and still laugh my arse off.

[Ageka]

And yet again I am amazed at my own forecast
The 12 candle cycles ends in feb and since the stochs are red the minimum requirement is fullfilled
The 107 cycle is at 115 days and in overtime
My RSI are not 80% yet but since 10% of my gains come from a better dollar I will continue to slide out of all trading positions
probably over the next week (or two)

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[AgentSmith]

Ageka, on Feb 1 2009, 07:58 AM, said:

And yet again I am amazed at my own forecast
The 12 candle cycles ends in feb and since the stochs are red the minimum requirement is fullfilled
The 107 cycle is at 115 days and in overtime
My RSI are not 80% yet but since 10% of my gains come from a better dollar I will continue to slide out of all trading positions
probably over the next week (or two)

Well done!! There is certainly reason to be cautious here. Sell that rhino horn!

Nature pattern analysis 201 "take 2". I need to find a good depiction of a "tri"ceratops.

However, the HUI is a little different story perhaps? Keep in mind what has happened to the dollar and gold .. this is not to be ignored or underestimated. When gold behaves like a currency like now, a rare occurrence, a high degree of energy is involved that won't dissipate so easily - an object in motion, tends to stay in motion.

Let's see if our current situation doesn't rhyme a bit with history. The analogy I have used over and over is the Golden Phoenix being reborn. It is a part of my phi, growth and death theories. So, to understand the present rebirth, why not look at a similar situation of the past....perhaps they'll rhyme.

Divergence between gold and miners as has been noted. Is this a warning or a consolidation of energy to spring us much higher, perhaps while gold moves sideways/down (that sets up divergences the other way that whipsaws us back down as fast as we went up?).

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[Ageka]

Seven switched to Gann
Decision time is this week or next

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[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Perilous conditions. A continued sell off in the SOW will be a movement to cash. Don't know if it carries over to miners. Cash is the safe position. European banking is melting down. If a crash ensures, panic could come into play.

I'm think'in the selling in gold tonight is profit taking with little momentum and buying will resume during the morning hours.

I might sell my remaining FCX and JOYG since they usually track with the regular markets lately. I'll hold the rest, the downtrend in the regular markets I think is no surprise to most traders/funds and they will position in cash or bargain hunting whatever that might be in (miners?).

It's not like the economy has bottomed or is in recovery mode.

[AgentSmith]

AgentSmith, on Jan 31 2009, 12:54 PM, said:

I have to chuckle at the SMC 1-yr chart, which still looks so lowly despite having done a x10 in a few months. As I mentioned in the other thread, I think we are near a short-term high (monday morning), small pullback (3-day) that should be bought & sold at the high .9x region. After that I will be selling out and won't be back in for a few months .. that's my rough battle plan. Expecting SMC "news" Monday morning .. looking for that new Orosi 43-101 (smells like good news to sell into...).

Despite my belief we have a strong monday morning in SMC, I started selling a little .66, .71 Friday.

Plans change, I've bought back the shares I sold Friday. We are already at/near my 288 HUI low target. The final growth period "happened" over the weekend...it didn't materialize, time expired...but so did the majority of the decline time.

BTO and CSM news

Based on the January 30, 2009 closing price of B2Gold on the TSX of Cdn$0.83 per share, the transaction was valued at approximately Cdn$1.06 per CSM share for a total transaction value of Cdn$66.8 million.

The dip in spot gold, to me, sets up the springboard for the final move to the tip of the rhino horn. I don't expect this move to go quietly. The market will give clues to its intentions, watch out for the ole zig/zag fakeout! It's very difficult to catch an entire move...hopefully I'm not being overly optimistic. I take some solace knowing I'm buying SMC back at a 20% discount to the BTO.TO deal. Yes, BTO.TO has moved up alot, but it also has $50m cash and is going to be a solid producer. Go Bema.

[Ageka]

Got out of part of my trading port on drooy for 52 bought at 30