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Could it be that a lot of hedgies were long bonds and short stocks? And that they've been blown out on their bond longs and need to buy up their tekrap shorts as a result? It would certainly explain recent counter-intuitive action. It also does not paint a happy picture for the Bull when the shortcovering stops. Many of the extremelt wise and faithful participants of Stoolville are now pushing out their decline horizon further and further for whatever reasons. I'm still sticking to mine. August 25th to September 3rd has been a time of momentous tops and that period is fast approaching.
I closed off the rest of my non-PMS longs for small profits and am now sitting on a heavy short position and modestly long the PMS.
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Bear Zone Stool for Tuesday, 19 August
The Madness continues.
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#2
5thelement 
- Master of Stock Proctology
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Posted 19 August 2003 - 05:27 AM
Yo THor:
Well, I learned a lesson today. I was in Montreal for a wee holiday weekend, knowing Monday I wouldn't be able to check the markets...
I should've closed out my SMH shorts last Friday for breakeven, now I'm down as I'm short 1K shares.... but strangely, I"m not emotional about it as I'm at a loss on this position only if I choose to close it now...
Instead, perhaps more short of SMH $35 will be a gift beyone gifts from the Short Gods above....
In the future, never hold a large short position over a Monday that you can be actively checking the indexes...
thanks for rallying Da Bears
Well, I learned a lesson today. I was in Montreal for a wee holiday weekend, knowing Monday I wouldn't be able to check the markets...
I should've closed out my SMH shorts last Friday for breakeven, now I'm down as I'm short 1K shares.... but strangely, I"m not emotional about it as I'm at a loss on this position only if I choose to close it now...
Instead, perhaps more short of SMH $35 will be a gift beyone gifts from the Short Gods above....
In the future, never hold a large short position over a Monday that you can be actively checking the indexes...
thanks for rallying Da Bears
#3
alceringa
- Associate Professor of Stock Proctology
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Posted 19 August 2003 - 05:48 AM
5thelement, on Aug 19 2003, 07:27 PM, said:
thanks for rallying Da Bears
Just went to several "bear" sites looking for inspiration, financialsense, prudentbear and such.
Not even any bears there.
Top on the broads has to be nigh when you can't find any bears.
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
Churchill
"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson
Churchill
"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson
#5
huey9
- Stock Proctology Intern
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Posted 19 August 2003 - 08:34 AM
5thelement, on Aug 19 2003, 05:27 AM, said:
... but strangely, I"m not emotional about it as I'm at a loss on this position only if I choose to close it now..
is this not the fallacy that wipes out trading accounts?
#6 Guest_yobob1_*
Posted 19 August 2003 - 09:31 AM
I have the same time frame in mind Thor. Butt (!) (always have those sorry assed butts hanging around) I think there are way too many shorts, anybody have the total short position figures for the NYSE and Nazdog? If it's over 1% it's too high for a major whoosh. Would like to see <.5% as a setup for a crash. Perhaps this latest orgy will bring those shorts in.
Secondarily it looks like the lagging data is reflecting the last surge of re-fi money and that will be spun to the max. But what else is new.
The bond market is still key and the next magnitude larger forex will be key in the near future. We have seen the volatility in stocks over the last few years and now the bond market is shown to not be immune to violent swings. Next will be forex. That's the capper. There is no doubt many large dislocations due to bonds' wild swings and my guess is that will, through the derivatives daisy chain, lead to volatility in the forex markets causing further upsets in the derivatives. It's all one big smoldering, gas soaked, house of cards looking for a little breeze to fan the flames.
Secondarily it looks like the lagging data is reflecting the last surge of re-fi money and that will be spun to the max. But what else is new.
The bond market is still key and the next magnitude larger forex will be key in the near future. We have seen the volatility in stocks over the last few years and now the bond market is shown to not be immune to violent swings. Next will be forex. That's the capper. There is no doubt many large dislocations due to bonds' wild swings and my guess is that will, through the derivatives daisy chain, lead to volatility in the forex markets causing further upsets in the derivatives. It's all one big smoldering, gas soaked, house of cards looking for a little breeze to fan the flames.
#7
Windbreaker
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Posted 19 August 2003 - 09:56 AM
From Raymond Merriman's weekly astro-market post :
"...I am concerned where these world stock markets are concerned. I could make a case, based purely on my knowledge of astrology, that the high for the year may occur between now and September 10. The rally upwards may become very exciting, even explosive in a positive sense. And then something completely unexpected happens, and these markets suddenly reverse."
As shown in his latest post, the astros are pretty darn ugly for the
next couple of months...
Merriman's Financial Astrology weekly commentary
"...I am concerned where these world stock markets are concerned. I could make a case, based purely on my knowledge of astrology, that the high for the year may occur between now and September 10. The rally upwards may become very exciting, even explosive in a positive sense. And then something completely unexpected happens, and these markets suddenly reverse."
As shown in his latest post, the astros are pretty darn ugly for the
next couple of months...
Merriman's Financial Astrology weekly commentary
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