[simple guy]

Taking a look at the 5 day action last week.

As I suspected the week prior, we would hit 1423 on NAS, fill the gap, then head down in a B wave corrective mode. This would be made of a 3 wave move, because the move to 1423 was a 5 wave move up.... 3 waves go against the trend.

A wave down finished early on Monday at 25.97 QQQ. The B wave up was a triangle, and 5 waves down really began on Thursday afternoon from the top of the triangle area of wave B

Friday, we saw clear 5 wave patterns developing, and to me it looks like the 5th and final wave of this is due on Monday more than likely... Im looking for minimal 25.91 on Q's, but more probably 25.44 ish area intra-day to finish the overall A B C Corrective. This would be around 1339 at worst on the NASDAQ. The reason I feel we are in the C of this ABC is because we broke the 25.97 monday low late on Friday with a 25.95 print... confirming C underway...

Once completed...

That would mean A wave to 1425 done
B wave to 1339 ish (possibly only as low as 1360) done soon
C wave back up to at least kiss the 1423-1425 ish area after that, and it should be a sharp and swift move if so.... not an 8 day move, possibly a 3-5 day move. Many C waves are 61.8% of the length or duration I should say of the A wave....

SG thinks in the larger degrees of trend counts, we are in a 4th wave corrective off the Oct 9 lows. We are entering into the home stretch C wave portion of this 4th wave A B C pattern.... a 3-5-3 pattern in the larger scheme. 3 waves up to 1515 on NAS, 5 longer waves down to 1253, and working on 3 larger waves up to complete the C wave of this 4th.

Eventually, the C wave should likely re-test the 1515 highs of December, and as I've postulated, probably moreso, closer to 1700 in my opinion....

This all sounds preposterous right now, and frankly I may be smoking crack with this call... but the patterns are fitting.

So... near term.... finish up the c of B wave early this week downward. Then move impulsively up to a topping C of this A B C that started on March 12 at 1253 NAS, 23.52 Q's.

C wave should complete at or higher than the previous 27.38 Q high, and 1425 NAS high....Using 61.8% of the A wave move, I would speculate to see the Q's at or about 27.82 to 28.29 ranges.... for the C wave top....

Then we should begin a 3 wave larger B move down to correct all of this A B C move to the coming highs...

Hope that helps....lets see if I am right. There is mucho discussion of Bradley turn dates. April 3 +/- depending who you listen to. If we run up into that window, we head down in my B wave. If we run down into the window to finish the C we are in, then we go UP in my C wave after...

Either way, we are going up after this downleg completes near term IMO.... barring a nuclear disaster or something unforeseen... war makes things tricky, but the wave patterns have been fine regardless.... News fits the market as they say on Wall street...

[simple guy]

Examing the oft used Vix ratio

The VIX often can signal a coming turn up or down in the indices, the SP500 the main one here.

The attached URL of a 3 month VIX graph shows we are in the process of bottoming on the VIX, and then turning slowly back up.... as this occurs, it would coincide with a topping of the indices.

SG says if you just look at the action from early January when we ran up, you can see the VIX stochastics and RSI levels on this attached chart bottoming and turning as we peaked.

The current chart shows us NOT QUITE at the vix bottom according to Stochastics and RSI measures... but you can see its close.

What will bring this about is probably my cited C wave thrust upward to finish the intermediate term ABC corrective wave up. As we thrust up to finish the C wave over the next few weeks window, this VIX should really bottom out and you will want to be positioned to be aggressively short the indices.

This all jives with my views of a coming brief downwave this week, followed by an upward C wave.... the brief downwave will put a slight move up on the VIX, followed by a final plunge to lower levels signalling a top in place.

Levels to watch... 919 on the SP500, 1459 ish on the NASDAQ, 27.82 to 28.29 on the Q's.

I hope this helps some of you out...

VIX 90 day chart, with Stochastics and RSI TA indicators... not yet bottomed

[simple guy]

Unfolding NAS wave count for wave C of abc down

1390 top on Friday intra-day of wave B

Wave C began unfolding impulsively in 5 waves (as wave A did, so this makes sense)

Wave 1 1390 to 1375
Wave 2 to 1385
Wave 3 is unfolding and should end at 1360 ish
wave 4 up to 1369-1370 ish (.38% of 3)
wave 5 to end at about 1352 ish (.618 of 1-3)

So, 1352 is a good reversal target...

Hope that helps...
SG

As a side note for those of you who noted my buy suggestion on CPN Thursday....

on IDS I said CPN looks like a bullish wedge is forming. A good entry point is 3.15. The stock was 3.38 at time of my post. It got to 3.15 or 3.16 over next 24 hours. I am dong the stock.

CPN dropped from about 12.5 to 1.5 in a terminal wave that ended in October of last year.

It is now at 3.40 per share. There is likely to be one more minor leg down to complete the E of an ABCDE channel.

SG expects CPN to break out from there and head to 8.625 per share over several months timeframe. This would be a 61.8% retrace of its terminal wave down to 1.5. Interesting that it just happens to work out to a fibonacci like 8 5/8 number... just coincidence?? Or is it??

SG could be wrong on this forecast, but its how Im seeing it. Do not take this as advice, just a diary of my personal trade.

[richmtn]

Thanks SG. As you know I don't do EW. The counts confuse the hell out of me. I do appreciate the targets you give and measure them against the cycle charts I do. I also generally chart the S&P as it's so much more regular. The Nasty and Q's need a laxative.
I think we are in agreement short to intermediate term. Probably long term too.
I am thinking we see more downside this week going into BB's 4/3 +- turn date. Then a resumption of the rally.
Forensic proctolgy tells me the MM's have some nasty tricks up their sleeves. I think the downside this week may be a bigger retracement to flush out the bulls and suck down the bears. Just when everyone thinks the bottom fell out then another blast off rally.

Here are a couple of Night Stool charts. I hope they help.
Oh yeah by the way. I don't know how much I want to play this game right now. Gold looks like it has the best risk to reward ratio for the time being. YES UP.

Gann Fan with blue oval target zone. Dark line is 5-6 month cycle. UP.


It's going to surprise everyone when we go below 840 and reverse.

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[simple guy]

I also like WMB fwiw, but have no position in it, failing to catch the turn. I think CPN still has entry time periods to catch the upswing yet to come. THe wedge is still forming, or nearly done forming from what I can see...

Cheers
SG

[sniff]

SG, I do not know much about e-waves either. But focus on fibs, TA and risk... Your waves certainly match my fibs on the QQQ... 25.91 & 25.46... I was also doing some old fashioned risk calculation not based on fibonacci. This is a weighted calculation using MACD Hist, RSI,CMF,CCI,W%R & ROC... it shows a slight tilt to the risky side for Bulls...therefore, I lean to the 25.46...500 retrace on the daily intraday chart.

If this thing gets out of hand for the bears, I calculated 1535 for the Naz. This would be from a very early launch of a Bullish Gartley pattern. I believe this is to early to tell....... I have another chart, saying not much upside on the DOW, it could be setting up for a big dive..... So, if price does this....I do that, & if price does that, I do this........ the only way to play as far as I can tell......

nice work, I enjoy it...

[sniff]

I did want to coment on the Bradley Chart..... Who does not have a print out of the Bradley Chart on their desk? I know of 4 different Bradley models, most of us have the popular one ( the standard one).

Thoses turn dates are big anticipation days, why not? A zillion of us are looking at it. I do not put much stock in Bradley,...... but how can a zillion sheeple be wrong? Therefore, maybe caution should be advised near those dates......

[simple guy]

A few responses

RICHMTN, Thanks for the Gann fan chart, I find that stuff fascinating... but Im completely clueless on it. I know Blackbelt, Oyster a bit, and yourself are resident gurus there... good stuff.

844 is an E wave target also btw.... and I see 919 as my upside SP500 for sure...

Sniff... Fibo's are great, they are almost always on the money. The E waves help by understanding the "likelihood" of what pattern is to come. Also, if you screwed up a trade, then you can hopefully take a look at the wave patterns even afterwards and try to get back on track.

The NAS-QQQ index is sporting a Wave 4 character to me off the Oct 9 lows... an A B C in larger degree.... Interesting that this is not the current collective E wave thinking at all, which is why I kind of prefer it. In the most recent just published EWI Financial Forecast monthly issue, they didnt allude to it, but they did allow that we may go past the Dec 2 highs, and if so, this would push the correction time frame out further... and the C wave would be part of a larger ABC. This is what I think SG has been ahead of the curve on calling. Its a gutsy call on my part, but the patterns fit, so they just are there to see in my eyes...

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