[simple guy]

"News fits the Market"

... That is an old Wall St saying... and its true. The market is more of a predictor than a follower of news. News is a lagging effect that catches up with the market really.

Elliott Wave patterns for example on Friday were crystal clear and they were supposed to bounce off of 23.95. 23.95 was a target for a 5th wave that I put out last Monday, way before any Bin Laden rumors were around. The market was simply ready to reverse there for a corrective wave 2 up is all. The only thing unclear is whether its 38%, 50%, 61.8%, or 78.6% fibonacci retrace... but the retrace was NO SURPRISE.

So lets discuss the imminent war rally shall we? The war rally will come to pass only if it happens to fit in with the E wave cycles. If the E Waves are in the middle of a 3rd wave down hard, then the markets would take the news as bad and keep going down. If however, the waves were ready for a wave 4 retracement for example, then they would view the War news as good. The wave patterns say it all, not the news itself... the news is used by the media to explain what they "think just happened"... but its not why the market really moved.

So... Wave patterns loosely tell me that we are early in third wave still. They point down hard through March, through this March 13th number some of you Bradley peeps (I pay some attention to it) are throwing around. They point down to March 21st on the DOW, due to a 55 day fibonacci trading day cycle.....

So... if we drop bombs on Monday, we will go down not up....

If we drop bombs on March 22nd, we may go up, not down...

But that will be because a pattern had already completed E wave wise, not because of the bombs dropping....

The fibonacci sequencing applies to many things in nature, in life, and the markets. These are extremely accurate indicators of almost precisely where the markets are heading... they dont predict exactly when though I agree. However, if Im sitting on a short position.... I aint going to cover because of a rumor or because of a jobs report....got it?

The bin laden capture rumors were interesting in that they appeared after the 23.96 targets of a 5th wave got hit... just happened to fit the pattern nicely for a reversal. I also think the traders were caught flat and had to get short...

COT report continues to show huge bets negative on the QQQ index, AKA the NDX. It shows small speculators betting huge on a big move up.... smart money vs dumb money... Im with the smart money...

The war is noise. Even Gold is in a major corrective pattern, and according to some will drop below $250 per ounce... this is to be argued all day long. I am holding KGC and I may sell if it doesnt rally some soon, but I believe Gold is in a secular bull trend until proven otherwise... mainly for economic as opposed to TA reasons.... which of course can get me into trouble.

To summarize... News fits the market, not the other way around. If you understand where we are in the wave patterns, then news becomes noise and entertainment... and your fingers only hit the trigger when the pattern tells you to.

SG did not cover Fri morning because Im holding for the Turd to really unfold.... and to much lower levels....

[DogBoy]

"The market is more of a predictor than a follower of news. News is a lagging effect that catches up with the market really."

Cool thread, SG !!! This is a topic I've kicked around in my head for quite some time.

I totally agree with this statement.

And the fact we are in a Great Bear market has me wondering about the prospects of going to war at such a time.

I actually think that you could predict world events (or at east trends) by technical analysis.

I also think that the QQQ's kissed off that magic 24.50 FOR GUD.

And we don't get a War Rally unless we first get a derious drop. Several days like Monday.

Since in all likliehood tha War starts on the 17th there is not enough time in my view for a bottom to form. That being the case I think we go down HARD.

What does that mean for the war assuming it starts on the 17th ?

It means that something goes SERIOUSLY wrong. My guess is that furriners get pissed and SELL, BABY !!!!

Just a guess but it seems to be the "best fit" as this point.

I don't think the winner is in doubt here. It's like whacking a mouse with a double barrel shot gun.

So that leaves me with the idea that it'll be unpopular --- even after it's over and for a very long time after it's over. Perhaps many civilians will die.