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No sellers,only believers...


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#1 MrHanky

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 05:00 PM

When everyone actually wants out,it will be a tidal wave of selling.Until then the bots own this market.....

Nobody gives a shit,why bother trying to help?


#2 BreakOut

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 05:15 PM

The shrewd ones will be the first ones out. Apres moi, le deluge.

#3 Trader Joe

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 05:32 PM

Going off on a bit of a tangent here...albeit not too far off..

Under the heading of don't believe everything you read...er...don't believe anything you read

Picked up this link from Mish's site, as he put it...Porter Stansbury wrote a tremendous article on The Corruption of America and how public unions are at the center of it.

How does anyone take a dick like Stainberry seriously with dogshit fact twisting like this:

"Consider, for example, annual sales of automobiles. Auto sales peaked in 1985 (11 million) and have been declining at a fairly steady rate since 1999. In 2009, Americans bought just 5.4 million passenger cars. As a result, the median age of a registered vehicle in the U.S. is almost 10 years."

Really?

Are you serious?

Seems to me that "tremendous analytic mind" might be just a bit weak

No mention of changes in buying behavior to SUVs?

No mention of advances in technology allowing cars to stay in operation longer?

Etc Etc Etc

So down, yes. But off by 50%?

F-U Dick!

auto sales.jpg

#4 MrHanky

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 05:39 PM

Slowly but surely I am selling my holdings and it was a decent week,but it has been taking longer than I wanted to dump all this crapola.Hopefully by the end of next week I will raise a ton more cash.

Not sure where the bond market goes from here,but I am getting rid of all my EXCESS risk as I am getting uncomfortable with any margin.

Had a secondary today,but I got stopped out at UNCH.....Not holding any equities overnight,especially if they pay no divvy.



I still have a feeling we get a decent pullback in equities to get a nice strong bid into treasuries....soon.But it's hard to tell when it breaks.Maybe we get some kind of large gap down that causes a huge change in sentiment?Or do we just continually grind higher until "twist" and other market manipulation runs it's course?

Nobody gives a shit,why bother trying to help?


#5 Trader Joe

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 05:50 PM

I still have a feeling we get a decent pullback in equities to get a nice strong bid into treasuries....soon.But it's hard to tell when it breaks.Maybe we get some kind of large gap down that causes a huge change in sentiment?Or do we just continually grind higher until "twist" and other market manipulation runs it's course?


Nope

Grease = fixed

ECB moneyball dump part deux to commence

MARK-IT UP

QED

#6 Jetlag

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 07:08 PM

Sounds like a bear
http://www.financial...orse-not-better


This statement would imply two premises:
1- ECRI misleading indicator can predict future economic growth
2- Future economic growth is related to stock market performance

Like I posted before, but had no data to back it up then, ECRI's indicator has a very high equity weighting:
http://www.advisorpe...WLI-and-SPX.php

"The correlation between S&P 500 market index and WLI level is found to be 0.95 which is quite high. "

"S&P 500 leads WLI and S&P 500g leads WLIg. S&P 500 does a better job of picking turning points in the business cycle "

It's not much more than the S&P500 smoothed and lagged!

More fresh stool about ECRI:
http://www.advisorpe..._Indicators.php

"At the end of September 2011, ECRI made a call that left the impression that a recession was imminent. Considering their track record of accuracy, very few challenged their argument. Two days later, the S&P 500 bottomed and rose an incredible 22% (through February 9, 2012) penalizing those who reduced their equity allocations based on ECRI’s forecast. "

http://advisorperspe...eful_Anyway.php

Here's ECRI track record hand picked by themselves:
http://www.businessc...cri/trackrecord

#7 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 07:56 PM

No change..

Position:
ES short 1351
NQ short 2589 (looking to add next week)
AAPL march 500 puts 9.85 & 9

Trade safe.

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Stop the Madness

#8 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 07:57 PM

No change..

Position:
ES short 1351
NQ short 2589 (looking to add next week)
AAPL march 500 puts 9.85 & 9

Trade safe.



As noted yesterday. NASD closed the week up again. This would be 8th straight up week. I noted yesterday what happened the last 2 time we got such a trend.
Stop the Madness

#9 psyche doctor

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 08:01 PM

From looking at the data, seems that total vehicle sales were pretty steady since 99'. Of course, total sales took a dip after 07', but anyone with a brain would probably argue that without even a need to look at the data. According to that spread sheet, appears that sales actually peaked in the 99'/00' period.

Or is an auto not a truck; a truck not an auto?

However, despite this, I will have to say that I agree with most of what Mr. Stainberry had to say in his article. I also enjoy reading Shedcrock's stuff, too. If only we were all perfect.
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving

#10 psyche doctor

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 08:03 PM

As noted yesterday. NASD closed the week up again. This would be 8th straight up week. I noted yesterday what happened the last 2 time we got such a trend.


Also, after finishing this week, crapple has printed two weekly bars outside of the BB's.



Posted Image
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#11 I_Am_Madness

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 08:18 PM

Also, after finishing this week, crapple has printed two weekly bars outside of the BB's.


That's the reason why i continue to hold those puts.
When it breaks, it should be given back rather quickly.
Stop the Madness

#12 psyche doctor

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 08:22 PM

That's the reason why i continue to hold those puts.
When it breaks, it should be given back rather quickly.


Maybe the gap near 475 gets filled, but I don't see this hog correcting too much.
I watched a snail crawl along the edge of a straight razor. That's my dream; that's my nightmare. Crawling, slithering, along the edge of a straight razor... and surviving

#13 Dopamine

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 09:07 PM

Here is a run up in yields prior to 87 crash.

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#14 capitall

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 09:20 PM

Here is a run up in yields prior to 87 crash.


TLT has been going sideways lately. Is there some reason to believe that it is going to start going down (and thus yields going up) instead of sideways? If so, what is it?

#15 capitall

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Posted 24 February 2012 - 09:55 PM

Had a weird experience. The frig at our house went out so we ordered a new one from Maytag. It seems like a decent enough frig. It was delivered much later than was promised. When I asked about compensation for that, I was told there was a $25 "inconvenience fee" that would be paid to me. Well, today a Citibank debit card with $25 on it arrived from Maytag. The account agreement lists a number of fees attached to the card, including a monthly "account maintenance fee." The agreement does not even bother to state the amount of this fee but states that the fees for the first twelve months will not be collected until the 12 month anniversary date of the card. So the unsuspecting consumer may have 12 months of fees applied to their account, before the charges appear and they realize they owe them. The name on the card is my last name, with a single initial printed on it in place of the first name. It is not even my correct initial, but is the last letter of my first name.

Sometimes I can't imagine why those of us who are not bankers, ever put up with these banks, as they are devious, incompetent, and leeches. Why not get rid of them? Lately, money in the mattress pays almost as much interest on it as banks do, anyway. What good are they?





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