cwd Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 Yeah, but your balance sheet is full of lies. Reported this afternoon: Citibank: Carrying loans on book at $660.9 billion; 10K filed today discloses that "fair value" is $642.7 billion - a "discrepancy" of $18.2 billion dollars. Bank America: Carrying loans on book at $886.2 billion; "fair value" of $841.6 billion, a shortfall of $44 billion. Wells Fargo: Carrying on book at $843.8 billion; "fair value" of $829.6 billion, a discrepancy of $14 billion. This is all off 10Ks filed this afternoon - after the market closed - and referring to earnings reported during the last quarter's releases Karl
joe3pack Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 j. livermore training video (actual footage): [flash=425,344]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x98jCBnWO8w.swf
shorty Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 True or False 1. A common stock mutual fund is sort of like a savings account for smart people, who enjoy double-digit annual returns over the long run. 2. Buying a house is the best investment anyone can ever make in their life. 3. Kitchen and crapping-room remodels increase the value of your house, and more than pay for themselves. 4. Investing in a new garage door improves the curb appeal of your house, often causing groups of passing drivers to slam on their brakes, race into your driveway and begin an impromptu bidding war with all-cash offers. 5. Placing a faux ceramic pot full of plastic flowers out front will attract higher offers. 6. Baking a fresh batch of cookies in the oven during open house tours can completely mask the fart odor from hubby's Lazyboy. 7. "Taking cash out of your house" to spend on authentic NFL Gameday costumes demonstrates your financial savvy. 8. Spam actually tastes pretty good once you get used to it. 9. My Congressman is doing a good job if he brings me more of your bacon than your Congressman takes of mine. 10. Fine print in the stimulus legislation requires mandatory prison sentences for delinquent homoaners who lied on their mortgage applications.
ChickenLittle Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 "WORST MONTH SINCE 1933" blares Drudge. True - but their implication shows they lack any historical knowledge. If this is like 1933 - it should put fear in the hearts of shorts. Why? The Dow was - wait - UP 65% in 1933 for the full year!!
joe3pack Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 waiting for DGP between 16 and 18. come to papa.
joe3pack Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 what a weird relationship between the USandA and asian central banks. since when does your dealer give you your fix, time after time, and gives you the money to buy his sheet? but running up the tab has come to be freakin all-hell normal in this tango. . . .
cwd Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 LOL, Crapvision and Futia and Prechter must be digital, as they are only right once per decade.Prechter sure made money this time from 2007 'til now, but he's been wrong since 1988 or so, so he had a lot of making up to do. I think the Dow needs to get to 2700, The August 87 high, for him to get even.
cwd Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 True or False 1. A common stock mutual fund is sort of like a savings account for smart people, who enjoy double-digit annual returns over the long run. 2. Buying a house is the best investment anyone can ever make in their life. 3. Kitchen and crapping-room remodels increase the value of your house, and more than pay for themselves. 4. Investing in a new garage door improves the curb appeal of your house, often causing groups of passing drivers to slam on their brakes, race into your driveway and begin an impromptu bidding war with all-cash offers. 5. Placing a faux ceramic pot full of plastic flowers out front will attract higher offers. 6. Baking a fresh batch of cookies in the oven during open house tours can completely mask the fart odor from hubby's Lazyboy. 7. "Taking cash out of your house" to spend on authentic NFL Gameday costumes demonstrates your financial savvy. 8. Spam actually tastes pretty good once you get used to it. 9. My Congressman is doing a good job if he brings me more of your bacon than your Congressman takes of mine. 10. Fine print in the stimulus legislation requires mandatory prison sentences for delinquent homoaners who lied on their mortgage applications. . Spam actually tastes pretty good once you get used to it. True
Pretzel Logic Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 What was the Elliot count around late March 1931? Or maybe December 1930? Here's one, I think from Marketclues. Somebody posted it here six years ago. By this count, the decline from the 29 top had a short A & B, and a longgg C. By contrast this A has already lopped off half the market cap, so the C can't be that much longer than A in nominal terms. I'm looking for C to bottom in summer 2010. Curious about Prtzl's timeframe for same - he's more accomplished here, I'm sort of a junkyard Ewoofer and use it as a supplement. I personally believe that 2007 was a Supercycle top, which is why I have argued that this bear will NOT be like '02/'03. '02 was a cycle bear market -- specifically, it was Cycle Wave IV within the Supercycle which stretched all the way from 1932 to 2007. So we are now seeing a Supercycle bear market. The last time we saw a Supercycle wave end was -- you guessed it -- 1929. The really scary thing is that, by some counts, one could make the argument that a GRAND Supercycle wave ended in 2007, and possibly also a Millennium wave ended. That's a wave that would span backwards for hundreds or thousands of years... so you can imagine the implications of "correcting" all the progress for the last 300-1000 years or so. It gets tough to try and calculate Grand Supercycle and Millennium waves, though, since they essentially span most of recorded history, and we have no data to chart from, say, 1400 B.C.. For purposes of maintaining my sanity, I prefer to view 2007 as the top of Supercycle (III), and this as Supercycle Wave (IV) within the Grand Supercycle -- which would mean we have one more long wave up after this is over. But, there is a strong argument against that view and in favor of this being a Grand Supercycle top (and possibly a Millennium top). That argument is what's called the "rule of alteration," which means that if wave 2 is a sharp correction (like 1929-1932 was), then wave 4 should be a flat (sideways) correction. Clearly this bear market is NOT a flat correction, so that hints that it might not be part of the same Grand Supercycle wave structure as the 1929 crash, and may in fact be one degree HIGHER than that! Now, it's called a "rule," but Elliott rules are really more like very strong guidelines -- so it's possible, if unlikely, that both (II) and (IV) could be sharp corrections. It's also possible that this wave could turn into a huge flat. If so, then this volatility is just getting warmed up. Anyway, as I said, for purposes of sanity, I try not to think about it too much. To Phat's question: 2010 sounds reasonable IF we're finishing A here... but I have no exact time frame right now. I'm looking for about a three year total correction to complete the first leg of this degree of the bear -- but that's just an out-and-out guess. I find the time counts to be much trickier than the actual wave counts, and much less reliable. And I worry that if I get too hung up on the timing, I will try and make the counts fit my bias, instead of letting them dicate to me what my bias should be to stay on the right side. Let's face it, that's what screwed Prechter, and kept him from being remembered for what would otherwise have been some great predictions: he got too hung up on trying to nail the time frame -- so he's remembered as the guy who became a bear WAY too early, instead of being remembered as the guy who predicted the start of the Great Bull Run back in the dark market days of the mid-70's. So I prefer to let the time frame unfold how it will, and let the wave counts dictate to me when we're nearing a major trend change. And that's one of the reasons that Doc's time cycles are so useful to me. Time's always been my weakness in real life -- I'm too focussed on the present, so I tend to view time as a completely abstract concept (I'm never on time for anything and will be "late to my own funeral" as the saying goes). Beyond that, I'm not sure if we're nearing the bottom of (a) or A. If this is only (a)... good lord. Anyway, here's two long-term options heading forward (these are rough charts, more for the purposes of illustrating this for the people reading along who have no idea what (a) vs. A means. These are not meant as measured predictions.). Primary A ending is represented in red; intermediate (a) is in blue:
phatbubble Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 /DWEEB ON What platform do you use? I can code it for Ninjatrader. /DWEEB OFF It could actually live outside of a platform for a while. First order of business would be to obtain & import a few decades of daily planet positions...then generate the geometrics between every combination...and then create an interface that allows you to dial the weightings up & down, to arrive at something that hits turning points on a 'first glance' basis. My suspicion is that you could generate different Bradleys relevant to different markets by over/underweighting various aspects (e.g. Neptune for oil, Moon for silver, Uranus for new tech, etc.). Sorta like changing the mixing board settings for different bands. Don't really have the time to take this on right now....although it's been nagging at me for a while as a fascinating project that almost certainly has upside. Hmm.
Pretzel Logic Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 Oh, fun. I love these! I'll play, lemme know if I get these right: True or False 1. A common stock mutual fund is sort of like a savings account for smart people, who enjoy double-digit annual returns over the long run. TRUE! I invested in 2000, and look at my account today! Let's open my most recent statement so I can show you... As of last month, my account is up... OMG WTF!!!!!!!! 2. Buying a house is the best investment anyone can ever make in their life. Now this one I know is TRUE! I paid $380,000 for my house in 2005, and while I haven't had it appraised lately, I'm sure that by now it's worth at least $600,000. After all, Las Vegas IS the fastest growing city in America! 3. Kitchen and crapping-room remodels increase the value of your house, and more than pay for themselves. TRUE. Actually, I forgot I had the bathroom redone. My house is probably worth more like $650K. 4. Investing in a new garage door improves the curb appeal of your house, often causing groups of passing drivers to slam on their brakes, race into your driveway and begin an impromptu bidding war with all-cash offers. I used to think this was true, but after 3 years with this new garage door, I have to say FALSE. This hasn't happened yet, much to my surprise. 5. Placing a faux ceramic pot full of plastic flowers out front will attract higher offers. Dunno, 'cause I ain't sellin' until I need to, when my rate adjusts in 2010. But I'll give it a shot! 6. Baking a fresh batch of cookies in the oven during open house tours can completely mask the fart odor from hubby's Lazyboy. FALSE. Nothing can mask that odor. That odor has to be forcibly subdued with hammers. 7. "Taking cash out of your house" to spend on authentic NFL Gameday costumes demonstrates your financial savvy. TRUE. You must have been at my Superbowl party??? 8. Spam actually tastes pretty good once you get used to it. FALSE. Spam is not intended to be eaten. It is actually packing material, used to protect valuables during shipment. 9. My Congressman is doing a good job if he brings me more of your bacon than your Congressman takes of mine. TRUE. Harry Reid rocks! 10. Fine print in the stimulus legislation requires mandatory prison sentences for delinquent homoaners who lied on their mortgage applications. FALSE. Homeowners are the victims of predatory lending and never lied. Also many homeowners were foced at gunpoint to take out huge 2nd and 3rd mortgages worth tens of thousands of dollars in order to take vacations and buy cars, TV's, and authentic NFL equipment. Homeowners wanted none of these things, so none of that money should have to ever be paid back to the banks that forced them to borrow it.
alceringa Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 Spam Recipes Roundup Your breakfast, lunch & dinner favorites from around the web! Breakfast Recipes Spam & Eggs Enchilada Breakfast Casserole Fritatta Lunch & Dinner Recipes Country Rice Salad Hawaiian Spam Sandwich Three Bean Salad Cool Cucumber Avacado Sandwiches Reuben Sandwich Cheesy Spam Rolls Cornbread Brocolli Pie Hearty Bean Soup Barbequed Spam Sandwiches Spaghetti Carbonara Summer Skillet Supper Foil Dinner on the Grill Spam Salad Cabbage Apple Supper Cantonese Sweet & Sour Polynesian Bake Cold Spam Sandwich Hot Spam Sandwich Are you a big fan of Spam, everyone's favorite canned ham? Example- Cheesy Spam Rolls Recipe Ingredients: 2 packages (10-count size) small French rolls 2 cups shredded cheese* -- divided 2 cans (8 oz size) roasted garlic tomato sauce 1 medium onion -- chopped very fine 1 can (4.5 oz size) chopped ripe olives 4 hard-boiled eggs -- grated 1 can (12 oz size) Spam? luncheon meat -- finely diced Directions: * You can use monterey jack, cheddar or Velveeta. Slice dinner rolls in half and hollow out centers slightly to make shallow bowls. Place the rolls on a baking sheet and bake at 350? F until they are crisp, about 5 minutes. Reserve 1 cup cheese for topping. Combine the remaining cheese, tomato sauce, chopped onion, olives, grated eggs and diced Spam. Spread the mixture on toasted rolls, covering well. Sprinkle with remaining cheese. Bake at 350? for about 10 minutes or until cheese melts and is bubbly. This recipe from CDKitchen for Cheesy Spam Rolls serves/makes 40
Pretzel Logic Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 PrtzlLogic: Does this bearish count make any sense? Hey, I somehow missed your post in real time during the day on Friday. I happened to be scrolling through tonight, looking for a chart K Wave had posted, and saw it. Sorry for not answering earlier. Yes, it does. Here's my count updated through today. After being very bearish about this decline since it first started, I have decided it is time to play Devil's Advocate with what has been my preferred count since January (the red count). Here are some arguments against it: 1. A bounce here would make sense psychologically to create a (false) double bottom and give a rally some fuel. 2. We are hitting this area "wrong" for lack of a better term. The 3rd wave is nearly over, and I don't know that there'll be enough momentum to push through what should be fairly strong support here. Ending here would also make wave 5 of 3 roughly equal to wave 1 of 3 (if we change the count to the blue, it would make the little red 1 roughly equal to where we are, which would be 5 of c of b on that count -- and also on the larger waves it would make c of b (the February decline) roughly equal to a of b (the January decline)). So in the regard of equality among waves, it would make a lot of sense for it to bottom as c of b here. 3. Wave 4 never looked right, and didn't even retrace a decent fib percentage of the last decline. A c wave rally here might do the trick to form a "proper" wave 4, and get us back up to maybe the 38 fibo. 4. It's hard to reconcile this count w/ K Waves charts. We would have to get a very extended 5th wave here to get anywhere near fulfilling the "crash window." Of course, that's exactly what happened in 1932 (refer to the chart Phat posted), although it was wave 1 of 5 then, this would need to extend wave 5 of 5 -- so it's not impossible, and might actually be apropos. So, that said, the preferred count is right until it isn't, and so far it's been dead on. I'm not backing off of that count just yet, but I find it's sometimes useful to play Devil's advocate with my counts -- and I would caution bears to be very nimble and not become complacent here. If we're about to launch into a C wave up, the rally could be fast and vicious to swing shorts. I will be keeping tight trailing stops on my positions Monday, as either way we are due for a bounce soon -- a bounce either from the little ii of V of 3 of 5, or from wave c of 4. Here's the chart:
unSane Posted February 28, 2009 Report Posted February 28, 2009 I have been trading SKF since last October. Please forgive my ignorance....I understand the trailing stop and profit target, but am unsure what you mean by an "armeggedon stop". Can you elaborate? TIA The trailing stop is not a brokerage stop, it's calculated at the end of each 15m bar and I only exit the position if the price closes across it at the end of a 15m bar. This means my stop is not triggered by intrabar noise but it also exposes me to a sudden price movement (say, if SKF goes to zero in five minutes). Therefore I also use a wider, regular brokerage stop loss order as a safety net, and in case I am not trading that day.' I call this an 'armageddon stop' because it should normally only be triggered by a violent price move. I set it wide enough that it doesn't interfere with the everyday operation of the system.
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