Monthly Digger - September 2009

[Charmin]

There are times when noteworthy volume rears itself out of the blue. Since March there have been buyers. The noteworthy volume that shows up on some of my charts occurred on March 18.

 

The question is will this volume day be supportive of future price for some stocks. Other stocks have outperformed by leaps and bounds since March 18.

 

For GLD March 18 was retested in April. It's high also appears to define an exhaustion level in price for now. http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1251764762.png.

 

For SLV March 18 appears to define a supportive level in price.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1251764858.png

 

For GG March 18 was retested in April and it's high appears to be supportive of recent price.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1251764467.png

 

For RGLD March 18 appears to be supportive of price.

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1251765060.png

 

Outperformed:

RBY http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1251766342.png

 

NXG http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1251766394.png

 

You get the idea

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

Why Default on U.S. Treasuries is Likely

Besides the possibility of rising interest rates due to excess currency in the system there's rising rates due to risk because of debt and defaulting on that debt as the article points out.

 

Never seen so many calls for an impending crash with money being withdrawn ahead of time. If it does happen soon I doubt it will be consumer related, it's obvious we're tapped out, it will be currency related due to all the related debt. It's not like they can expect the consumer to fork over all the taxes at once to cover it all.

 

The heath care legislation is just a cover or diversion for medicare being insolvent.

 

You can run but you can't hide. Actually I think no one will want to take the risk of low bond yields or higher yields for that matter and instead invest in the regular markets as a hedge causing the markets to rise further trying get return on the falling dollar.

[dharma]

after looking @ lots of charts, i am coming to the conclusion that the broad market is in a topping process here. sept is upon us, and seasonally it is the worst performing month in the broad market. while technically gold looks super, i am lightening up in my trading account and will be flat there to await the buying opportunity that i see in oct/nov, which imho will be the last buying op under 1k. in my investment account, i will remain 80-85% long. in my experience if the broads start down they will suck everything else w/it . and it sure looks like the broad market is in need of some kind of correction-800spx.? dharma

[chiefywiefy]

Dollar skying and they can't sell off gold with a mega-bearish COT report????

I'm adding heavy here.

[Charmin]

Dollar skying and they can't sell off gold with a mega-bearish COT report????

I'm adding heavy here.

 

It's like last month - consolidate and waiting inside the wedgy

GLD

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1251834730.png

[Charmin]

after looking @ lots of charts, i am coming to the conclusion that the broad market is in a topping process here. sept is upon us, and seasonally it is the worst performing month in the broad market. while technically gold looks super, i am lightening up in my trading account and will be flat there to await the buying opportunity that i see in oct/nov, which imho will be the last buying op under 1k. in my investment account, i will remain 80-85% long. in my experience if the broads start down they will suck everything else w/it . and it sure looks like the broad market is in need of some kind of correction-800spx.? dharma

 

 

Dow didn't quite make it to the number 9690 I was watching for supply to show up.

[traderfromhell]

after looking @ lots of charts, i am coming to the conclusion that the broad market is in a topping process here. sept is upon us, and seasonally it is the worst performing month in the broad market. while technically gold looks super, i am lightening up in my trading account and will be flat there to await the buying opportunity that i see in oct/nov, which imho will be the last buying op under 1k. in my investment account, i will remain 80-85% long. in my experience if the broads start down they will suck everything else w/it . and it sure looks like the broad market is in need of some kind of correction-800spx.? dharma

 

 

thought you were looking for a mid month high?

[dharma]

thought you were looking for a mid month high?

i am , taking some profits in trading account and will be flat there by mid month.

today was interesting:

the broads down

the dollar up and old yeller up!

dharma

[Gold Majestic]

Tomorrow's August employment report should show continued job losses with the potential to drive home the awareness that not only does the asset-price dependent US economy continue to be in the worst shape among the world’s major economies, but also that the Fed will be forced to remain on hold with its 0% rate far longer than most currently expect.

 

IMO, to the extent this fact is realized, the extent it can drive down the vulnerable US Peso.

 

When something trades this long in a tight range, in this case Gold, the ensuing move tends to be explosive in nature, especially given such a bullish set-up.

 

Since the broad markets have been overdue for their inevitable correction, and since broad market down = USD up has been in the playbook for the past year, the fact that Gold/Silver were exceptionally strong may signal the inflection point I feel is fast approaching.

 

With liquidity remaining strong, I continue to opine "this is NOT Fall 2008" as many fear. I expect the correction in the broad markets to run its course by middle to end of next week. Things should get interesting for Gold/Gold Stocks after labor day when volume comes back and the recognition phase sinks in.

 

The US Treasuries couldn't even manage a bounce with the stock market falling. And that was despite the Fed's monetizing another $5.6 Billion today! Another negative for the US Dollar/UST-Bonds.

 

I'm reminded of last Dec-Feb period when Gold continued to rally despite the US Peso rising to hit its 52-Week MA.

So hopefully, today’s gold bullish divergence action was not just a one day event. Similarly, the bullish divergence of Gold and the foreign currencies which indicates the US Peso rally will soon fail.

 

Watching and waiting.

[Gold Majestic]

A couple other quick observations to note: China's August PMI rose again for the 9th straight month to 54 and marked the first time in 5 years that the PMI has risen during the seasonally weak period of April through August.

 

And in the US this morning we learned that the August ISM finally managed to creep above 50 to 52.9 for the first time in over a year. But more significantly, we saw that the "prices paid" indicator (the inflation component) jumped to 65 from the prior month’s 55. That's a whopping 10 point jump in inflation given the much smaller increase in manufacturing activity. Again, spells Stagflation especially when you compare it with with the growth in foreign economies. (China, Europe, etc).

[Dharmaeye]

Just scored one of these on ebay at below silver melt (70 oz) in booklet form not wood cabinet.

 

http://franklin-mint-silver.com/franklin-m...nius-medals.htm

[bearvest]

GDX:

 

Candlestick analysis. You can't do it with HUI as you don't get a wick or a tail as the market is deemed to open at the prior day's close. GDX, so I'm told, co-relates very closely to HUI.

 

No surprise about the failed triangle breakout on Friday. The candle was a doji and a black one at that. No body and a relatively equal wick and tail showing neither the bulls or the bears really gained ascendency----a spinning top type of pattern---although the absence of a body classifies it as a doji.

 

It was evidence of a short squeeze. The triangle breakout aborted Tuesday.

 

The cloud represents a moving support/resistance area. It has a flat top, so it will attract price but offer formidable resistance.

 

Tuesday's candle is another indecisive spinning top---not quite a doji as it has a body. In this case it's red, so score a little bit for the bears.

 

The red line is a slow line or a signal line. It tends to represent equlibrium. It's the 26 day e.m.a. So it tends to flatten--- and price tends to gravitate to it.

 

The blue line is the 9 day e.m.a., so it's the line from which the trend is detected. These are the same averages from which MACD is constructed.

 

As the blue crossed below the red, the most recent signal is mildly bearish. But then, it's trading within the cloud.

 

Candlesticks are fine, but I still tend to trade off daily Stochastics.

 

They've rolled over and couldn't hit over 80. There's a "pointy" top and a momentum failure.

 

Note the candlestick support at 37, which is also at gap support.

 

I could see that area being tested, with a "fake out" move below the cloud.

[bearvest]

Volume:

 

I look at On Balance Volume for the 15 HUI components daily.

 

Tuesday was a huge "downer". Only ABX moved up a prior peak. 12 others had OBV down days below prior down days.

 

So there's a huge plurality of stocks seeing lower volume lows when measured in an advancing volume/decling volume basis.

 

Big numbers like this tend to show Dover Sole levels. But the bouces and declines in OBV are played with divergences---not absolute levels.

 

Minus 11 as a score that's very bearish. It may present a bounce.

 

I'd look to a higher OBV score on a lower pice (positive divergence) to enter over the next week or so to enter long.

[Whadda I Do Whadda I Do]

As long as the bottom of the channel holds, looks good

Creeping up $960 doesn't appear to be as important as a barrier any longer but just below $970 does.

 

This dash to cash we've been through before both the US$ and gold look like safe havens. Herd the cattle to cash then close the banks wouldn't surprise me. Still, where do you park your cash and for how long? Yes, I know what this board will do, I'm wondering about the non-believers.

Had NCT NVAX turned them into SVA then sold out at a nice gain but missing the rest of the rocket ride. Add to my favorites miners along the way. Had Baja Mining but sold it due to the hurricane that will probably wipe them off the map temporarily.

[Ageka]

Just scored one of these on ebay at below silver melt (70 oz) in booklet form not wood cabinet.

 

http://franklin-mint-silver.com/franklin-m...nius-medals.htm

 

 

Congrats , very nice catch

You can also get all kinds of gold medals below melt on ebay ( germany, france etc )

 

Here in euroland unfortunately a tax of 18% is on silver because silver is deemed a consumption product

There is an 18% tax on goldmedals too but that seems to be eaten by the first forced vendor whereas the tax

on silver seems an eternal 18% plus above spot because of high demand of anything silver by Germans