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A start, is it the beginning or the end? M2M, 8/11/2009
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#2
byhiselo 
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 05:00 PM
shorty's calling a major top (i think)
everybody is expecting a pullback to 950's (and then blast to new highs?)
i'm minding the gap in the low 900's from july 14th (to get the pullback to 950 crowd thinned out)
a few calling for new lows (some stoolies among them)
don't be shy, let your opinion be seen/heard
everybody is expecting a pullback to 950's (and then blast to new highs?)
i'm minding the gap in the low 900's from july 14th (to get the pullback to 950 crowd thinned out)
a few calling for new lows (some stoolies among them)
don't be shy, let your opinion be seen/heard
#4
Scully
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 05:28 PM
I am sticking to the funnymentals, because attempting trading makes my head and wallet hurt.
Graph below takes the 140 year average S&P500 earnings yield of 7.5%, and uses the current and future estimated earnings to establish a theoretical "fair value" for the S&P500. That is plotted on the left axis in red, and compared to the actual price in dark blue. The delta between the two (i.e. how much the S&P500 is overvalued or undervalued) is on the right axis.
If we ignore the fact that the S&P500 is close to losing money for the first time in its history, and instead focus on the future earnings as estimated by S&P, the fair value is about 495. If we take into account the fact that usually at the bottom of a secular bear market the S&P500 can be undervalued by -0.30 on a log scale, then the price of the S&P500 could dip as low as 253.
Graph below takes the 140 year average S&P500 earnings yield of 7.5%, and uses the current and future estimated earnings to establish a theoretical "fair value" for the S&P500. That is plotted on the left axis in red, and compared to the actual price in dark blue. The delta between the two (i.e. how much the S&P500 is overvalued or undervalued) is on the right axis.
If we ignore the fact that the S&P500 is close to losing money for the first time in its history, and instead focus on the future earnings as estimated by S&P, the fair value is about 495. If we take into account the fact that usually at the bottom of a secular bear market the S&P500 can be undervalued by -0.30 on a log scale, then the price of the S&P500 could dip as low as 253.
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#5
Scully
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 05:34 PM
Same analysis shown below except for the dividend yield. Note the average upslope on the delta which is another way of saying that dividends have been going out of style for the last 140 years.
With this measure, "fair value" is 569 for the S&P500. Assuming it undershoots under the trending channel to the same degree it overshot it, the price could dip below 359.
All prices in these graphs are monthly averages.
In conclusion, I am bearish, and won't become bullish until the S&P500 is below 500 or so. Disclosure: I am currently short and holding as a long term trade. Hoping the market won't be irrational longer than I can remain solvent.
With this measure, "fair value" is 569 for the S&P500. Assuming it undershoots under the trending channel to the same degree it overshot it, the price could dip below 359.
All prices in these graphs are monthly averages.
In conclusion, I am bearish, and won't become bullish until the S&P500 is below 500 or so. Disclosure: I am currently short and holding as a long term trade. Hoping the market won't be irrational longer than I can remain solvent.
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#6
T_Slim
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 05:41 PM
The daily charts of YM and ES are looking rather bearish. Anything below today's lows and some nickels can be made, but gotta get those stops to break even fast in this mega manipulated market. 
I figure the bulls are gonna try to protect YM 9000 like the plague.
I figure the bulls are gonna try to protect YM 9000 like the plague.
#7
Bungster
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 05:58 PM
byhiselo, on Aug 11 2009, 04:00 PM, said:
shorty's calling a major top (i think)
everybody is expecting a pullback to 950's (and then blast to new highs?)
i'm minding the gap in the low 900's from july 14th (to get the pullback to 950 crowd thinned out)
a few calling for new lows (some stoolies among them)
don't be shy, let your opinion be seen/heard
everybody is expecting a pullback to 950's (and then blast to new highs?)
i'm minding the gap in the low 900's from july 14th (to get the pullback to 950 crowd thinned out)
a few calling for new lows (some stoolies among them)
don't be shy, let your opinion be seen/heard
ding-ding-ding
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future" Yogi Berra
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
“No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God.” George W. Bush
"If you believe people are rational beings, you will go through life frustrated and confused" Scott Adams
"Don't dig the dialog of denial"
“No, I don't know that atheists should be considered as citizens, nor should they be considered as patriots. This is one nation under God.” George W. Bush
#8
phatbubble
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 06:27 PM
ES fell today to its 15 min 900MA and its 30 min 500MA.
The next obvious pasta shport, ES 30 min 900MA, is around 973...which is also a couple pernts from the hourly 500MA at 970 (both rising).
Broadly speaking I'd like a bigger drop here, then a retrace to a lower high in later/end Aug, riddled with neggy Ds.
Then we could put another log on the fire.
The next obvious pasta shport, ES 30 min 900MA, is around 973...which is also a couple pernts from the hourly 500MA at 970 (both rising).
Broadly speaking I'd like a bigger drop here, then a retrace to a lower high in later/end Aug, riddled with neggy Ds.
Then we could put another log on the fire.
Quod Severis Metes
Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.
Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.
#9
shorty
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 07:25 PM
This GD is far worse than the 1930's in many ways (not the least of which is the aSStounding degree of denial and false hope) so I'm standing by my target of 550-600 for the S&P by EOY.
Butt more important than guessing at levels is aSSertaining the current trend.
Looks to me like it's just changed to down, as the goose got slaughtered at 1,000.
The entire world of dongtraders gashing themselves tonight, reampeating over and over, "I shoulda got out over 1,000....DOH!"
It's a new world, with no guarantees not just for common stocks, butt also no guarantees for preferred stocks, no guarantees for money markets, no guarantees even for "secured" bondholdres, who can be screwed on the whims of czars.
Only safe investments now are things like silver coins, canned goods, tools, weapons, and fully paid-up lifetime VIP passes down ta the Slap 'N' Tickle.
Butt more important than guessing at levels is aSSertaining the current trend.
Looks to me like it's just changed to down, as the goose got slaughtered at 1,000.
The entire world of dongtraders gashing themselves tonight, reampeating over and over, "I shoulda got out over 1,000....DOH!"
It's a new world, with no guarantees not just for common stocks, butt also no guarantees for preferred stocks, no guarantees for money markets, no guarantees even for "secured" bondholdres, who can be screwed on the whims of czars.
Only safe investments now are things like silver coins, canned goods, tools, weapons, and fully paid-up lifetime VIP passes down ta the Slap 'N' Tickle.
and can't ya see my faded Levi's, burstin' apart
#10
Charmin
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:01 PM
Sudaca, on Aug 11 2009, 05:17 PM, said:
VIX Weekly right at the 200 week mov avg, with MACD curling up.
200 week is also KWave's favorite 900 day
80% cash, 20% short EM via EDZ.
200 week is also KWave's favorite 900 day
80% cash, 20% short EM via EDZ.
Combine the low vix with:
"In its poll on July 9, just one day before the market launched off its July low into the stunning rally of the last four weeks, the AAII poll showed 54.6% bearish. In its latest poll, released Wednesday night, it showed 50.0% bullish. If it was taken now, after yesterday’s triple-digit rally, it would probably be even higher. We have always considered any number between 50% to 55% as the danger zone." http://syhardingblog.com/new/
and one might NOT want to get on board the bull train
Cycles + Wyckoff + NTM = TechnoPile
Mr. Widget is my Guide http://wallstreetexa...or-day-traders/
Mr. Widget is my Guide http://wallstreetexa...or-day-traders/
#11
briarberrys
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:03 PM
Fed treasuries purchases - do you think this will be mentioned tomorrow at 2.15pm ?
CalculatedRisk
Quote
From Bloomberg last week:
The Federal Reserve is set to halt its purchases of up to $300 billion in U.S. Treasuries in mid- September as scheduled, and will probably announce the decision next week, two former central bank governors said.
Bloomberg
The Federal Reserve is set to halt its purchases of up to $300 billion in U.S. Treasuries in mid- September as scheduled, and will probably announce the decision next week, two former central bank governors said.
Bloomberg
CalculatedRisk
#12
BusKow
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:44 PM
this is about the best break I'm seeing tonight...and we don't want this to hang out and form a handle above ~38.52 
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Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.
#13
BusKow
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:51 PM
nice follow yhough on the "shorties", and all periods pointing down
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Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.
#14
BusKow
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 08:56 PM
Enthusiasm was lacking
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Prudence, indeed, will dictate that governments long established should not be changed for light and and transient causes, and accordingly all experience hath shown that mankind are more disposed to suffer, which evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations , pursuing invariably the same object, evinces a design to reduce them under absolute despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such government, and to provide new guards for their future security.
#15
cwd
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Posted 11 August 2009 - 09:09 PM
Scully, on Aug 11 2009, 04:34 PM, said:
Same analysis shown below except for the dividend yield. Note the average upslope on the delta which is another way of saying that dividends have been going out of style for the last 140 years.
With this measure, "fair value" is 569 for the S&P500. Assuming it undershoots under the trending channel to the same degree it overshot it, the price could dip below 359.
All prices in these graphs are monthly averages.
In conclusion, I am bearish, and won't become bullish until the S&P500 is below 500 or so. Disclosure: I am currently short and holding as a long term trade. Hoping the market won't be irrational longer than I can remain solvent.
With this measure, "fair value" is 569 for the S&P500. Assuming it undershoots under the trending channel to the same degree it overshot it, the price could dip below 359.
All prices in these graphs are monthly averages.
In conclusion, I am bearish, and won't become bullish until the S&P500 is below 500 or so. Disclosure: I am currently short and holding as a long term trade. Hoping the market won't be irrational longer than I can remain solvent.
Good info, thanks. Don't forget Goldman Sucks has the job of making sure that doesn't happen, backed by Helo Ben and Turbo Tim:
