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#1 Guest_Obscured by Clouds_*

Group: Guests

Posted 03 July 2006 - 02:22 PM

I vote for 1289-1300.

Back to top of the page up there ^
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#2 Guest_pujols_*

Group: Guests

Posted 04 July 2006 - 12:36 AM

Obscured by Clouds, on Jul 3 2006, 07:22 PM, said:

I vote for 1289-1300.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I vote a little higher than now. The issue will not be how high, but how low. I'll summarize a conversation from a party I went to this afternoon.

A local residential-turned-commercial RE developer. Our kids used to ski together every spring. He doesn't BS to me as much as to others. He is just finishing an upscale shopping plaza, which turned out to be considerably more expensive than he thought it would be.

He can't get an "anchor" store, like a Barnes and Noble, because anchors now want FREE rent, and other perks. The hit on his revenue stream would bankrupt him. And, with a lot of surplus retail space in our area, he can't get middle tier retailers to come in above his breakeven, including perks. And his interest costs are increasing after each FOMC meeting. He says the commercil retail market is dead in the water, at the moment. He seemed a little concerned. His mood, and the mood overall, was an interesting contrast to previous years' affairs. Sober would be the bast way to describe it.

Spec Bubble III has essentially burst for the boomers; SandL, Tech, and Homaoners, tracing the bull fromthe late 80's. My gut tells me we are in a different world now. How preposterous is it for an academician central banker to attempt to create a fundametally diseased situation (hyperinflation) and expect even an approximation of a desired result? Is it not the ultimate fancy for TPTB to experiment with and minipulate all of the intertwined market ecosystems that have sprouted over the past 20 years ? And not only do they predict a result, the predict a precise result.

Watch/re-watch Jurassic Park and you'll get my drift. There are too many independent variables, in the scheme about to be undertaken, to bring Dinotopia to J6P.

The only reasonable thing to expect from a blind man given a needle and thread is a lot of blood loss. Any other result is fortuitous.

We go down HARD sometime in the next 2 weeks. The air in America is very thick these days, and it will soon make it's way to Wall Street. And for the first time since I became a bear, I really want to be wrong on this.

Its gonna hurt.