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Ive never read a market related book. Ive spent thousands of hours on websites like this. I learned alot with TA but alot of success has been from always having scenarios. If A might happen then B could occur.
I mostly ride coattails following what the big money and volume is doing. Once I get a direction and good starts I usually walk away. The worst mistake for longer term investing is watching the market all day imo. You get tricked 3 times per day and fooled by the commentary on tv. I would follow doc and learn from him. I dont know anything about fundamentals really.
I was ltbh all last year and this year until I saw silver break out. Once it started going parabolic with gold etc. and my energy plays started blasting off I assumed it would be a good time to use TA and start taking profits. TA helped me get out near the top of the channels on many plays.
The only way for me to reset and reenter now is to spend a ton of time on it and watch carefully. I absolutely would not buy here and let positions ride. The biggest market moves come near the end and I was extremely concerend about that.
Now I am using stops and trading on a shorter term basis. The huge damage to the foreign etf charts has me very concerned on a longer term basis.
With all the indicators where they are now I am "hoping" for a huge move soon and will take profits and walk away until the market comes back to me. It may take many months but it ALWAYS comes back to give better opportunities.
I have also had the greatest success compounding by getting a good start on a stock, selling half the position and refusing to reenter until it comes back to me. This may even be at a higher price but when compounding I have found that it doesnt matter.
By selling half the position I lower my cost average which gives me alot longer to have the position in the green before it could get stopped out. This stop out would be when the average went negative.
When I get lucky and make large gains and get done with the stock, I always leave some of the shares and forget about them. These shares become core and are always with the houses money. It doesnt seem like much but many stocks left in core later have gone up 400-500% and that makes a nice difference in the portfolio.
I gamble alot so don't reccomend it to all.
CAU is a recent example of where I traded it a few times, got lucky with some nice gains, kept the gains in the postion only and have forgotten about it. Now its really taking off and hopefully in a few years could be up 400-500%....I cant get hurt by it going down as it is a small position but if it goes up huge over the next few years it will start to make gains that help my portfolio and do make a difference.
Ive done this on quite a few stocks. Mostly materials and energy. I got many of the ideas here at capitalstool. Thats where my core positions in miners, nat gas stocks etc. that have been up so huge have come from. I trade the rest on a shorter term basis but with the same type of style.
I dont do it on penny stocks only for sure.
I have recently reentered half sold postions in many energy/material plays but will sell the half positions if they lose 5-7%. That is where the TA comes in.
I have strategies within strategies.
I am attempting to do that right now with the nasdaq starting from scratch. I have had very little money in them for the last couple years.
When I have a chance I will start a thread on LOB and list everything I am doing that is new. Many plays are well into action and Id rather not discuss them.
If you saw my trading on EP, thats exactly how I start off positions. I just reentered half sold positions on my nat gas plays, coal plays, miners etc. but they are well into the green and I have alot of legroom so I dont want to discuss.
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#2
Tzu 
- Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Banned
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Posted 28 May 2006 - 04:19 PM
2 ideas.
I'm watching the Indy500. The cars are running on 10% ethanol. Almost every car I have seen has ethanol on the side of it. I have seen it 400 times today. Great advertisment for trading next week. Next year the Indy Cas will be running 100% ethanol. Huge innovations are made in racing and we now have them on our side. That is big. Not only that is going for us but the fact that HUGE volume has entered these stocks over the last 6 months. They are the new momos and they are in the energy field which has been in a huge bull market. For comparisons, look at the junior miners and the volume over the last 5 years and how it keeps increasing. These stocks should be traded heavily and the trend is up. I always stick with the trend and this is an example of riding coattails.
I looked at the stocks and like 2 for trading. Cant get decent reads on the others although the macds are Dover Sole on them as well. I have ADM and nice gains but will start over for trading examples as I plan to buy PEIX monday. I actually sold PEIX with nice gains but will start again monday as well.
PEIX
Currently at 29.50.
support and the 50% retracment area are around 26. I will sell at 25. Buy back above it if it happens. Other than that I see the gap at 19 but will ignore that for now and target if the stock breaks 25. I might get stopped out and have to buy back a couple times but dont really think so. If it takes off from here Ill target the first resistance zone around 35 to sell half the position. I will look for momentum around here and where it is towards the end of the day etc. to make the sell if that happens.I will then wait for a pullback to Dover Sole for a reentry.
I really dont need to watch these stocks all day to be successful trading them. I do not daytrade unless I get huge gains in a day or few. In that case I always sell half positions and have a great start.
I'm watching the Indy500. The cars are running on 10% ethanol. Almost every car I have seen has ethanol on the side of it. I have seen it 400 times today. Great advertisment for trading next week. Next year the Indy Cas will be running 100% ethanol. Huge innovations are made in racing and we now have them on our side. That is big. Not only that is going for us but the fact that HUGE volume has entered these stocks over the last 6 months. They are the new momos and they are in the energy field which has been in a huge bull market. For comparisons, look at the junior miners and the volume over the last 5 years and how it keeps increasing. These stocks should be traded heavily and the trend is up. I always stick with the trend and this is an example of riding coattails.
I looked at the stocks and like 2 for trading. Cant get decent reads on the others although the macds are Dover Sole on them as well. I have ADM and nice gains but will start over for trading examples as I plan to buy PEIX monday. I actually sold PEIX with nice gains but will start again monday as well.
PEIX
Currently at 29.50.
support and the 50% retracment area are around 26. I will sell at 25. Buy back above it if it happens. Other than that I see the gap at 19 but will ignore that for now and target if the stock breaks 25. I might get stopped out and have to buy back a couple times but dont really think so. If it takes off from here Ill target the first resistance zone around 35 to sell half the position. I will look for momentum around here and where it is towards the end of the day etc. to make the sell if that happens.I will then wait for a pullback to Dover Sole for a reentry.
I really dont need to watch these stocks all day to be successful trading them. I do not daytrade unless I get huge gains in a day or few. In that case I always sell half positions and have a great start.
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#3
Tzu
- Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology
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- Joined: 24-June 04
Posted 28 May 2006 - 04:38 PM
What a race!
ADM
currently at 42.71
sell below approx 37.50. Buy above. No need to deal with exact numbers.
below that Ill target the 32 area at the SRL lines. (Speed resistance lines)
new highs at 46.71
notice the macd setup. It helps the scenario.
Then there is of course the massive volume interest.
This is another example of riding coattails.
The trend is up.
On this one it Id guess that it has resistance at the highs but will not play it that way as their isnt enough gains to be made unless you are daytrading.
The upper SRL lines point to around the 55 area. Ill sell half the position around there. Again, It will depend on momentum and where its at near the end of the day etc. to make this decision. I never look for exact numbers. They are simply guidelines.
*I nailed the hui targeting upper SRL lines and sold because it was getting near their and the macds were overbought. Risk quadruples in this scenario and it isnt worth it.
*Notice how the SRL lines point towards the mid 50s....I am simply guessing that that is where it will hit the upper SRL lines in this scenario.
I cant daytrade these perfectly and I dont even want to try. If these stocks are diving monday morning I will hold off. I have a feeling they will get a pop though. It could be very easy for them to turn around mid day and be down but that will not be a concern. Ill simply use my targets for support and resistance to help guide the play. It is very often that I have bad starts but when the trand is up I have a lot better chance of it coming back. I will not watch them all day long but just check on them when I have time.
ADM
currently at 42.71
sell below approx 37.50. Buy above. No need to deal with exact numbers.
below that Ill target the 32 area at the SRL lines. (Speed resistance lines)
new highs at 46.71
notice the macd setup. It helps the scenario.
Then there is of course the massive volume interest.
This is another example of riding coattails.
The trend is up.
On this one it Id guess that it has resistance at the highs but will not play it that way as their isnt enough gains to be made unless you are daytrading.
The upper SRL lines point to around the 55 area. Ill sell half the position around there. Again, It will depend on momentum and where its at near the end of the day etc. to make this decision. I never look for exact numbers. They are simply guidelines.
*I nailed the hui targeting upper SRL lines and sold because it was getting near their and the macds were overbought. Risk quadruples in this scenario and it isnt worth it.
*Notice how the SRL lines point towards the mid 50s....I am simply guessing that that is where it will hit the upper SRL lines in this scenario.
I cant daytrade these perfectly and I dont even want to try. If these stocks are diving monday morning I will hold off. I have a feeling they will get a pop though. It could be very easy for them to turn around mid day and be down but that will not be a concern. Ill simply use my targets for support and resistance to help guide the play. It is very often that I have bad starts but when the trand is up I have a lot better chance of it coming back. I will not watch them all day long but just check on them when I have time.
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#4
Tzu
- Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Banned
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- Joined: 24-June 04
Posted 28 May 2006 - 09:29 PM
I posted these last week for lower targets but went ahead and bought for trades again anyways. If they collapse, these are the targets below. I am not as concerned with the tech etfs as they look alot safer. Good chance I will get stopped out but they dropped enough from where I sold to make it worth another shot with small stop losses at a few%.
I will work on upper targets for these if they rally from here but my main concern is the lower target numbers if they go down. There could quite easily be a pullback early next week but who knows. As long as they arent down large and the world markets arent tanking them Im not that concerned. If the market does tank Ill be out with small losses.
The trend is up on these still and I have large gains. I thought the targets were worth noting on the downside.
They say the trend is up until it isnt but most people icking tops are wrong 9 out of 10 times. My strategy consists of me losing half my gains if they are at tops and this will be on half positions so I would expect much lower numbers in that scenario.
not exact numbers but approx
EWT- 12.20, 11.7 and 10.72
EWZ-33.50, 26, 21.50
FXI- 71, 63
EZA- 81,70
EWW-31.50,27.50,22
IGW-59.58,56.50,53.50
others
IIH-4.55,4.33,4.05,3.7
HHH-46,45.25,39
with SMH and SWH I just have stops at 33.39. Sell below that, buy above. Repeat if necessary. My targets will be the 200dmas.
I will work on upper targets for these if they rally from here but my main concern is the lower target numbers if they go down. There could quite easily be a pullback early next week but who knows. As long as they arent down large and the world markets arent tanking them Im not that concerned. If the market does tank Ill be out with small losses.
The trend is up on these still and I have large gains. I thought the targets were worth noting on the downside.
They say the trend is up until it isnt but most people icking tops are wrong 9 out of 10 times. My strategy consists of me losing half my gains if they are at tops and this will be on half positions so I would expect much lower numbers in that scenario.
not exact numbers but approx
EWT- 12.20, 11.7 and 10.72
EWZ-33.50, 26, 21.50
FXI- 71, 63
EZA- 81,70
EWW-31.50,27.50,22
IGW-59.58,56.50,53.50
others
IIH-4.55,4.33,4.05,3.7
HHH-46,45.25,39
with SMH and SWH I just have stops at 33.39. Sell below that, buy above. Repeat if necessary. My targets will be the 200dmas.
#5
alceringa
- Associate Professor of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Moderators
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- Joined: 09-September 01
Posted 29 May 2006 - 09:25 AM
Tzu, on May 29 2006, 03:08 AM, said:
Ive never read a market related book.
Well, my suggestion for your first is
Taming the Lion, by Richard Farleigh.
Not in Doc's bookstore.
Published 2006 Sydney/London.
Guy retired in his 30's. Doing angel investor work out of Monaco now.
TA+the mental stuff. AKA the hard bits!
Good luck in our trading!
"Americans can always be counted on to do the right thing...after they have exhausted all other possibilities."
Churchill
"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson
Churchill
"You can fool some of the people all of the time."
Lincoln
"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."
Jefferson
#8
Tzu
- Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Banned
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- Joined: 24-June 04
Posted 29 May 2006 - 05:47 PM
AMGN
long already
sell below 65.80 buy above.
gap filled, nice consolidation
low risk/high reward play.
Sell targets later. Would like some shares in core port to let ride if successful
long already
sell below 65.80 buy above.
gap filled, nice consolidation
low risk/high reward play.
Sell targets later. Would like some shares in core port to let ride if successful
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#9
Tzu
- Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology
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- Group: Banned
- Posts: 3,350
- Joined: 24-June 04
Posted 29 May 2006 - 05:59 PM
The coal index is near the trend line. I held FDG for 2 years before it started trading like a dog and I finally sold out to chase others.
I bought this one last week. Sell below 31.80. Buy above.
*If you are concerned with risk, always wait for the breakout and either buy into it or wait for the first pullback. This will decrease your risk. My portfolio is diversified so no stock can hurt me bad so I take on a little more risk.
In a normal market scenario I would try to time these alot better but since Ive got alot of cash on the side and ready to reenter many positions I am buying a spread of positions.
If I have 30 positions, I usually sell from the bottom and add to the top. I usually do this with best of breed stocks and leave penny stock runners alone after I am finsihed with them. I do this on a shorter term scale and sell half positions on a longer term scale if targets are reached etc. Its a fine balance and I don't always follow the rules but think it is a good guideline.
I have decided to buy SUF with shorty for entertainment. I will do this on a breakout only.
I bought this one last week. Sell below 31.80. Buy above.
*If you are concerned with risk, always wait for the breakout and either buy into it or wait for the first pullback. This will decrease your risk. My portfolio is diversified so no stock can hurt me bad so I take on a little more risk.
In a normal market scenario I would try to time these alot better but since Ive got alot of cash on the side and ready to reenter many positions I am buying a spread of positions.
If I have 30 positions, I usually sell from the bottom and add to the top. I usually do this with best of breed stocks and leave penny stock runners alone after I am finsihed with them. I do this on a shorter term scale and sell half positions on a longer term scale if targets are reached etc. Its a fine balance and I don't always follow the rules but think it is a good guideline.
I have decided to buy SUF with shorty for entertainment. I will do this on a breakout only.
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