[Hanky]

Welcome to CT 2006!

2005 ended up with a CT 10.9% gain, a triple over the buy and hold return of 3.3%
on the QQQQ.
System trading depends on scoring big winners while keeping loosers small.
Even in last years choppy sideways market we managed to pull some profits.
Hopefully 2006 will provide some better behavior and trend persistance to allow us to score some big ones for a change.


CT Historic Trade Tables and Performance {Updated 1-6-2006}

Current signals:

CT = CASH
HOM = BUY

Long term trend (HOM) continues to favor the long side but this is a difficult market and CT detects too much risk to try a ST stab at it.

Hank


Next : Gazing into my crystal ball

[Hanky]

Hanky's 2006 crystal ball:

The obvious 4-year cycle black hole sits at the end of this year and is currently in it's downphase. Obviously we are experiencing extreme right translation.
The only other static cycle I follow, 13.7 month cycle, peaks in May.
Currently all my long term and intermediate term indicators are pointing upwards(HOM,RAFF,MACO). SP looks bound to break 1300.
So this year (just as last year and I was way off ) I will be looking for a longer term top in March to May timeframe...then a decline into the 4-year trough
in Oct-Nov. I no longer expect it to be a very severe decline and think that the next 4 year cycle up phase could carry us to prior high in the SP, new highs on the Dow, and Nas will maybe get back to the .50 of it's all time high.
I continue to favor commodities, expecially precious metals and energy.
Please visit my HUI trading link, gold is on the move and this will be a very good year: Hanky's HUI
I think the energy sector will continue to outperform although currently it is in a longer term consolidation and not likely to have a real good year overall.
Well, that's it nothing earth shattering and many other market mavens seem to have the same crystal ball this year...don't know if that's good or bad.
As always...time will tell.

Best Regards,

Hank

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[Hanky]

Indicators have turned very ugly in this so far short downturn.

CT remains in CASH
HOM barely on BUY yet.

I definitely would not be long anything other than mining and energy here.

We could get a short signal if HOM turns down.
In such an event I would also be asserting an important top was made in January and the short side will be favored into fall.

Hank

[Abby Justa Colon]

Great thread Hank...
I have a sell signal on the Q's....

[Abby Justa Colon]

I gotta change my avitar....its scary

[Abby Justa Colon]

Force Index Super Spike...Great indicator when in a bull market, but if we are entering da bear then this can and will go much lower. It basically is all about the spike. I will update it and we shall see if indeed it is one.

[Hanky]

Weekend Update:

CT = CASH

HOM = BUY

Market staged another miraculous resurrection and HOM never flipped to sell.
CT still not letting buy into this.
So no change...sitting on our hands...well not really...having a supertrade with
our HUI FCS system and don't really give a crap about the extremely overvalued GOOGLE-manic side show.

Hank

[Abby Justa Colon]

This comming week seems to hold the key of what trend we will follow, IMO.

I still have the weekly pointing to the down side, but with a net up week for the Q's, the trend shall say time to get long....this week looms large!

[Abby Justa Colon]

Heres an update of the Q's force index "super spike". Last Friday gave us the spike...it did what it was suposed to do in a bull market. They only caveat is that if this indeed is some kinda top then this indicator can go much lower.

[Hanky]

Strong resistance tagged precisely on the 11th...looking for a top but so far
HOM is not indicating it as such...yet

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[Hanky]

Weekend Update:

CT = CASH
HOM = BUY

Yawn

Still looking for HOM to turn down to confirm a Jan top but not so far.
Bond 40 week cycle about topped out...sharp downturn in equities and
flight to safety in bonds when this thing turns??? Who knows.
Financials again looking very sickly but they have had many sudden
re-erections the past few years. And what's this GOOG, under 400?


Staying out of this mess and sticking to easy money in the "real" bull.

Hank

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[Hanky]

I have put up a web page with my CT and FCS gold fund signals:

My Webpage

I will keep posting them here too.

Hank

[Hanky]

CT issues a BUY signal 2/6/2006.

We will be opening a long position in QQQQ at tomorrow's open.

Hank

[Abby Justa Colon]

Thanks for the updates, Hank. Nice web page too...

Got a buy signal on the Q's this morning..need to close at a buy to trigger for me. Still a sell on the weeklies so I am treating these as just Dover Sole bounces in a downtrend for now. Time to be nimble.

[FeedFool]

Abby Justa Colon, on Feb 9 2006, 09:47 AM, said:

Thanks for the updates, Hank. Nice web page too...

Got a buy signal on the Q's this morning..need to close at a buy to trigger for me.  Still a sell on the weeklies so I am treating these as just Dover Sole bounces in a downtrend for now. Time to be nimble.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Weekly stuff may not work

IMHO