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It’s a well known that commodities has tendency to go parabolic and sharp drop so far we haven’t seen it so run isn’t really due to infra-structure building and export boom in developing countries.
Is it possible to burn some brain cell like the ol
Inflation, Speculation or wave 3 doom
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#1
FeedFool 
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Posted 02 December 2005 - 07:04 PM
Let’s start with commodity index. Notice how orderly the rise has so far been, supply is just keeping up with demand.
It’s a well known that commodities has tendency to go parabolic and sharp drop so far we haven’t seen it so run isn’t really due to infra-structure building and export boom in developing countries.
It’s a well known that commodities has tendency to go parabolic and sharp drop so far we haven’t seen it so run isn’t really due to infra-structure building and export boom in developing countries.
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#6
FeedFool
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Posted 02 December 2005 - 08:07 PM
What I have been told that stuff from china haven’t really gone up if it does, its not a big deal since profit margin is anywhere from 100% - 5000%. Most complain about shipping cost... Way I see is, if cost goes up in weastern countries then most companies will move operation abroad and reduce unit cost while maintain margin.
Globalization will keep wage hike in check. Also Bond yield seem to suggest yield may go down given time. If those central bakers continues to print money than all it will do is inflate assets and commodities.
Will it turn into Tulip mania II?? Only time will tell
Who would have thought there would be Dollar recycling mania???
In the old days many would come here and some really good points. With stock prices going steadily up most have lost their thinking ability and stuck their head in sand. Instead of evolving with the market condition most have dissolved.
Globalization will keep wage hike in check. Also Bond yield seem to suggest yield may go down given time. If those central bakers continues to print money than all it will do is inflate assets and commodities.
Will it turn into Tulip mania II?? Only time will tell
Who would have thought there would be Dollar recycling mania???
In the old days many would come here and some really good points. With stock prices going steadily up most have lost their thinking ability and stuck their head in sand. Instead of evolving with the market condition most have dissolved.
#7
Hiding Bear
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Posted 02 December 2005 - 10:19 PM
China sudsidizes and puts price controls on many important products. Thier kind of capitalism results in publicly traded companies, mostly owned by the giovernment, to run continued losses. That's why their market, in general keeps going down.
They also put controls on basic products used by the masses. Although this results in big losses to the government, it keeps consumer prices and export prices down.
I assume China weighs the real losses against a thriving export industry, and accepts that it is the least costly way to run things. I am not sure this is a viable system in the long run, but it seems to work in the short run.
They also put controls on basic products used by the masses. Although this results in big losses to the government, it keeps consumer prices and export prices down.
I assume China weighs the real losses against a thriving export industry, and accepts that it is the least costly way to run things. I am not sure this is a viable system in the long run, but it seems to work in the short run.
#8
Hiding Bear
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Posted 02 December 2005 - 10:20 PM
FeedFool, on Dec 2 2005, 07:04 PM, said:
Let’s start with commodity index. Notice how orderly the rise has so far been, supply is just keeping up with demand.
It’s a well known that commodities has tendency to go parabolic and sharp drop so far we haven’t seen it so run isn’t really due to infra-structure building and export boom in developing countries.
It’s a well known that commodities has tendency to go parabolic and sharp drop so far we haven’t seen it so run isn’t really due to infra-structure building and export boom in developing countries.
Sticking with the trending commodity group seems like a much easier bet to make than predicting the bond market.
#9
FeedFool
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Posted 03 December 2005 - 05:43 AM
If I am not mistaken China make their profit by reclyling Dollar due to that something else is inflating Its little complicate for me to explain but I am sure u will work it out.
I like to point out that commodities run aren’t over because the final parabolic run hasn’t commenced and sharp drops should be brought with vengeance.
If we can find out where Bond yield is going?? Then picture becomes clearer where Stock market is heading.
Let’s say bears have it wrong and yields are heading south. Then picture change from bearish to bullish. Banking, Housing problem disappear and stocks become attractive with higher stock prices Pension problem resolve by them self.
Assets will be attractive with lower bond yield. Bond and stock managers like their bubble long as its not busted
Fed Focus By Paul McCulley, November 2005
What can I say????
http://www.safehaven...rticle-4141.htm
http://www.prudentbear.com+Bubble
We could see another Tulip Mania II if those clowns play their card right
I like to point out that commodities run aren’t over because the final parabolic run hasn’t commenced and sharp drops should be brought with vengeance.
If we can find out where Bond yield is going?? Then picture becomes clearer where Stock market is heading.
Let’s say bears have it wrong and yields are heading south. Then picture change from bearish to bullish. Banking, Housing problem disappear and stocks become attractive with higher stock prices Pension problem resolve by them self.
Assets will be attractive with lower bond yield. Bond and stock managers like their bubble long as its not busted
Fed Focus By Paul McCulley, November 2005
Quote
Asset bubbles and their bursting have become an endemic feature of the economic and financial landscape that Mr. Bernanke will inherit from Mr. Greenspan
What can I say????
http://www.safehaven...rticle-4141.htm
Quote
November 18 - Bloomberg (Scott Lanman): "Paul McCulley, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world's biggest bond fund, is among the candidates for two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors,
http://www.prudentbear.com+Bubble
Quote
Mr. McCulley is an especially clever Fed watcher/proponent. Now plainly in the Bernanke camp, he blends insightful analysis with really creative rationalization for today’s flawed American experiment in central banking. This month he provides his clearest analysis yet of how a deregulated financial apparatus has profoundly altered the nature of Credit (he says “savings”) intermediation, with the capital markets now the marginal provider of Credit and liquidity both at home and abroad. He also astutely writes that deregulation of the Credit system has changed “the central banking game,” with the Fed’s role much diminished from the days when it enjoyed “colossal power” over the price and availability of Credit. Good enough.
One may be tempted to presume that we may be closer than many think in our analyses, but it occurs to me that our views have converged only on the most obvious and indisputable points. Mr. McCulley remains firmly entrenched in his hypothesis that the Fed has attained the promised land of price stability, and it is this postulate that provides the foundation for his analytical framework. He goes so far as to link the achievement of price stability to the collapse of risk premiums and the propensity for Bubbles.
One may be tempted to presume that we may be closer than many think in our analyses, but it occurs to me that our views have converged only on the most obvious and indisputable points. Mr. McCulley remains firmly entrenched in his hypothesis that the Fed has attained the promised land of price stability, and it is this postulate that provides the foundation for his analytical framework. He goes so far as to link the achievement of price stability to the collapse of risk premiums and the propensity for Bubbles.
We could see another Tulip Mania II if those clowns play their card right
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#10
mirac
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Posted 03 December 2005 - 11:07 AM
FeedFool, on Dec 3 2005, 04:43 AM, said:
If I am not mistaken China make their profit by reclyling Dollar due to that something else is inflating Its little complicate for me to explain but I am sure u will work it out.
I like to point out that commodities run aren’t over because the final parabolic run hasn’t commenced and sharp drops should be brought with vengeance.
If we can find out where Bond yield is going?? Then picture becomes clearer where Stock market is heading.
Let’s say bears have it wrong and yields are heading south. Then picture change from bearish to bullish. Banking, Housing problem disappear and stocks become attractive with higher stock prices Pension problem resolve by them self.
Assets will be attractive with lower bond yield. Bond and stock managers like their bubble long as its not busted
Fed Focus By Paul McCulley, November 2005
What can I say????
http://www.safehaven...rticle-4141.htm
http://www.prudentbear.com+Bubble
We could see another Tulip Mania II if those clowns play their card right
I like to point out that commodities run aren’t over because the final parabolic run hasn’t commenced and sharp drops should be brought with vengeance.
If we can find out where Bond yield is going?? Then picture becomes clearer where Stock market is heading.
Let’s say bears have it wrong and yields are heading south. Then picture change from bearish to bullish. Banking, Housing problem disappear and stocks become attractive with higher stock prices Pension problem resolve by them self.
Assets will be attractive with lower bond yield. Bond and stock managers like their bubble long as its not busted
Fed Focus By Paul McCulley, November 2005
Quote
Asset bubbles and their bursting have become an endemic feature of the economic and financial landscape that Mr. Bernanke will inherit from Mr. Greenspan
What can I say????
http://www.safehaven...rticle-4141.htm
Quote
November 18 - Bloomberg (Scott Lanman): "Paul McCulley, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world's biggest bond fund, is among the candidates for two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors,
http://www.prudentbear.com+Bubble
Quote
Mr. McCulley is an especially clever Fed watcher/proponent. Now plainly in the Bernanke camp, he blends insightful analysis with really creative rationalization for today’s flawed American experiment in central banking. This month he provides his clearest analysis yet of how a deregulated financial apparatus has profoundly altered the nature of Credit (he says “savings”) intermediation, with the capital markets now the marginal provider of Credit and liquidity both at home and abroad. He also astutely writes that deregulation of the Credit system has changed “the central banking game,” with the Fed’s role much diminished from the days when it enjoyed “colossal power” over the price and availability of Credit. Good enough.
One may be tempted to presume that we may be closer than many think in our analyses, but it occurs to me that our views have converged only on the most obvious and indisputable points. Mr. McCulley remains firmly entrenched in his hypothesis that the Fed has attained the promised land of price stability, and it is this postulate that provides the foundation for his analytical framework. He goes so far as to link the achievement of price stability to the collapse of risk premiums and the propensity for Bubbles.
One may be tempted to presume that we may be closer than many think in our analyses, but it occurs to me that our views have converged only on the most obvious and indisputable points. Mr. McCulley remains firmly entrenched in his hypothesis that the Fed has attained the promised land of price stability, and it is this postulate that provides the foundation for his analytical framework. He goes so far as to link the achievement of price stability to the collapse of risk premiums and the propensity for Bubbles.
We could see another Tulip Mania II if those clowns play their card right
I think the following quote(from Prudent Bear) expresses a potentiality; one which I expect to happen...
November 17 - Bloomberg (Hamish Risk): "The $12.4 trillion credit derivatives market is dominated by too few banks, making it vulnerable to a crisis if one of them fails to pay out on the contracts that insure creditors from companies defaulting, Fitch Ratings said. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, were the most cited traders in a market where the top 10 firms accounted for more than two-thirds of the debt-insurance contracts bought and sold last year, Fitch said in its Global Derivatives Survey for 2004..."
#11
mirac
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Posted 03 December 2005 - 11:42 AM
This Forum is called Look Out Below, but it may be somewhat prudent to think...Look Out Above...you never know when the sh*t is going to hit the fan, or our pretty blue marble-but it is getting closer
http://www.thecourie.../comm...%5e1702,00.html
http://www.thecourie.../comm...%5e1702,00.html
#12
Hiding Bear
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Posted 03 December 2005 - 07:27 PM
mirac, on Dec 3 2005, 11:07 AM, said:
FeedFool, on Dec 3 2005, 04:43 AM, said:
If I am not mistaken China make their profit by reclyling Dollar due to that something else is inflating Its little complicate for me to explain but I am sure u will work it out.
I like to point out that commodities run aren’t over because the final parabolic run hasn’t commenced and sharp drops should be brought with vengeance.
If we can find out where Bond yield is going?? Then picture becomes clearer where Stock market is heading.
Let’s say bears have it wrong and yields are heading south. Then picture change from bearish to bullish. Banking, Housing problem disappear and stocks become attractive with higher stock prices Pension problem resolve by them self.
Assets will be attractive with lower bond yield. Bond and stock managers like their bubble long as its not busted
Fed Focus By Paul McCulley, November 2005
What can I say????
http://www.safehaven...rticle-4141.htm
http://www.prudentbear.com+Bubble
We could see another Tulip Mania II if those clowns play their card right
I like to point out that commodities run aren’t over because the final parabolic run hasn’t commenced and sharp drops should be brought with vengeance.
If we can find out where Bond yield is going?? Then picture becomes clearer where Stock market is heading.
Let’s say bears have it wrong and yields are heading south. Then picture change from bearish to bullish. Banking, Housing problem disappear and stocks become attractive with higher stock prices Pension problem resolve by them self.
Assets will be attractive with lower bond yield. Bond and stock managers like their bubble long as its not busted
Fed Focus By Paul McCulley, November 2005
Quote
Asset bubbles and their bursting have become an endemic feature of the economic and financial landscape that Mr. Bernanke will inherit from Mr. Greenspan
What can I say????
http://www.safehaven...rticle-4141.htm
Quote
November 18 - Bloomberg (Scott Lanman): "Paul McCulley, a managing director at Pacific Investment Management Co., which runs the world's biggest bond fund, is among the candidates for two vacancies on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors,
http://www.prudentbear.com+Bubble
Quote
Mr. McCulley is an especially clever Fed watcher/proponent. Now plainly in the Bernanke camp, he blends insightful analysis with really creative rationalization for today’s flawed American experiment in central banking. This month he provides his clearest analysis yet of how a deregulated financial apparatus has profoundly altered the nature of Credit (he says “savings”) intermediation, with the capital markets now the marginal provider of Credit and liquidity both at home and abroad. He also astutely writes that deregulation of the Credit system has changed “the central banking game,” with the Fed’s role much diminished from the days when it enjoyed “colossal power” over the price and availability of Credit. Good enough.
One may be tempted to presume that we may be closer than many think in our analyses, but it occurs to me that our views have converged only on the most obvious and indisputable points. Mr. McCulley remains firmly entrenched in his hypothesis that the Fed has attained the promised land of price stability, and it is this postulate that provides the foundation for his analytical framework. He goes so far as to link the achievement of price stability to the collapse of risk premiums and the propensity for Bubbles.
One may be tempted to presume that we may be closer than many think in our analyses, but it occurs to me that our views have converged only on the most obvious and indisputable points. Mr. McCulley remains firmly entrenched in his hypothesis that the Fed has attained the promised land of price stability, and it is this postulate that provides the foundation for his analytical framework. He goes so far as to link the achievement of price stability to the collapse of risk premiums and the propensity for Bubbles.
We could see another Tulip Mania II if those clowns play their card right
I think the following quote(from Prudent Bear) expresses a potentiality; one which I expect to happen...
November 17 - Bloomberg (Hamish Risk): "The $12.4 trillion credit derivatives market is dominated by too few banks, making it vulnerable to a crisis if one of them fails to pay out on the contracts that insure creditors from companies defaulting, Fitch Ratings said. JPMorgan Chase & Co., Deutsche Bank AG, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley, were the most cited traders in a market where the top 10 firms accounted for more than two-thirds of the debt-insurance contracts bought and sold last year, Fitch said in its Global Derivatives Survey for 2004..."
When this blows, the Fed will set in to stop the whole thing. The question we have to ask ourselves is - will this be hyperinflationary, because the Fed may issue hundreds of billions of new fiat at once - or will events get out of hand and lock up the markets and cause what may be a deflationary depression?
#13
Hiding Bear
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Posted 03 December 2005 - 07:39 PM
FeedFool, on Dec 3 2005, 05:43 AM, said:
If I am not mistaken China make their profit by reclyling Dollar due to that something else is inflating Its little complicate for me to explain but I am sure u will work it out.
I like to point out that commodities run aren’t over because the final parabolic run hasn’t commenced and sharp drops should be brought with vengeance.
If we can find out where Bond yield is going?? Then picture becomes clearer where Stock market is heading.
Let’s say bears have it wrong and yields are heading south. Then picture change from bearish to bullish. Banking, Housing problem disappear and stocks become attractive with higher stock prices Pension problem resolve by them self.
Assets will be attractive with lower bond yield. Bond and stock managers like their bubble long as its not busted
We could see another Tulip Mania II if those clowns play their card right
I like to point out that commodities run aren’t over because the final parabolic run hasn’t commenced and sharp drops should be brought with vengeance.
If we can find out where Bond yield is going?? Then picture becomes clearer where Stock market is heading.
Let’s say bears have it wrong and yields are heading south. Then picture change from bearish to bullish. Banking, Housing problem disappear and stocks become attractive with higher stock prices Pension problem resolve by them self.
Assets will be attractive with lower bond yield. Bond and stock managers like their bubble long as its not busted
We could see another Tulip Mania II if those clowns play their card right
China seems to be saying on one hand that it wants the dollar steady, yet on the other hand, it is unhappy with the vast accumulation of dollars this causes.
Quote
Due to fluctuations of major currencies, Asian countries may not choose to change their US dollars into euros. Meanwhile, they don't like holding too much dollars, so one of the way outs is simply to have more gold. Of courses, Asian countries need coordination in this regard, since action from a single country may trigger strong fluctuations of exchange rates and harm economic activities.
http://english.peopl...201_224958.html
Only copper looks like it may be ready for panic spike blowoff. There was kind of a blow off in gasoline during hurricane Rita, which turned out to be a signficant intermeadiate top. But although it looks like gold and silver may suffer an early new year sell off, they have a way to go before they show signs of spiking.
Quote
Treasury also announced that it expects net borrowing of marketable debt to total $171 billion in the January – March 2006 quarter. The estimated cash balance on March 31 is $15 billion.
http://www.treas.gov...ases/js3000.htm
First quarter borrwoing in 2006 will be a record amount. Although things went smoothly this month, the Treasury is borrowing even more next year. So its hard for me to see bonds rallying. I think the inflation plays are a much better bet.
#14
mirac
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Posted 04 December 2005 - 09:31 PM
One of the Canadian 24hr. news channels was showing a story of a very large fireball over Australia today. Sonic boom, people frightened etc. Had pics too. There is a reason that the Vatican has its own observatory and it is looking southward.
#15
FeedFool
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Posted 23 December 2005 - 02:54 PM
http://www.safehaven...rticle-4318.htm
Quote
This monetary feat of exchange has no precursor.
Contrary to the boundless conventional wisdom prevalent in analysis of the "Trade Deficit" and the weakening of the Dollar, it should be clear we benefit at the expense of everyone else engaging in International Trade. We are exporting Monetary Inflation; paper from nothing for something.
We are allowed to spend more than we earn by our trading partners. Increasingly, there are recent and compounding warning signs our free ride is approaching an end. At a time when Trillions of Dollars are residing in foreign hands bound with the unpleasant realization that Dollars are increasingly becoming worth less and perhaps on their way to worthless.
When the day arrives foreigners stop taking our paper for their products, inflation will arrive like an enormous tsunami as our Dollar holding friends chose to convert them into something tangible. A seemingly endless flood of Dollars will wash ashore barring any protectionist actions.
Far and away, the greatest bubble of them all is not stocks, bonds or home prices; it is the United States Dollar.
Contrary to the boundless conventional wisdom prevalent in analysis of the "Trade Deficit" and the weakening of the Dollar, it should be clear we benefit at the expense of everyone else engaging in International Trade. We are exporting Monetary Inflation; paper from nothing for something.
We are allowed to spend more than we earn by our trading partners. Increasingly, there are recent and compounding warning signs our free ride is approaching an end. At a time when Trillions of Dollars are residing in foreign hands bound with the unpleasant realization that Dollars are increasingly becoming worth less and perhaps on their way to worthless.
When the day arrives foreigners stop taking our paper for their products, inflation will arrive like an enormous tsunami as our Dollar holding friends chose to convert them into something tangible. A seemingly endless flood of Dollars will wash ashore barring any protectionist actions.
Far and away, the greatest bubble of them all is not stocks, bonds or home prices; it is the United States Dollar.
