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Hanky's HUI Hideout


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#1 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 28 November 2004 - 10:30 PM

{Edited and Updated 5-10-2005}


My thankyou's out to so many of you that post and respond here and especially to those that subscribe/contribute to CS as I do :D

I have updated and posted the trade history table below is the new chart of the updated signals. Buy and Hold on HUI for 2004 resulted in @12% loss, trading the FCS resulted in less than 2% loss!

Gold Fund Trader


I did some updating to the FCS on the HUI index as end of 2004. This involved "tuning" it to include more recent data on it's backtesting and fit.
Also I have been working on the V.A.S.S. (Volatility Adjusted Signal Sensitivity)
Some slight changes occurred in past signals but only the most recent one was eliminated(now known to be a loser of about 3%) . I have only done this twice now (2003,2004) since implementing the system in 2002.




Hank

Attached Images

  • HUI5.11.05FCS_LT.gif


#2 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 28 November 2004 - 10:37 PM

I am now working off the Neely EW count which I have spent way too much time reviewing and contemplating alternate counts to his but it does give the best fit. Besides that, it is the most bullish :D

Some concern here as the DTSToch is starting to roll over on weekly.
Bearish divergences are already in place on the daily on many lower panel indicators. I have FIB and Cardwell Projections to 260 area on the HUI, see if we get a nice pop here but time to be very cautious and you can count 5 waves up in this latest rally leg since August.

Neely's EW count calls for a "B" wave down of this larger degee X wave somewhere in this vicinity!

Attached Images

  • HUI11.26.04DT.gif


#3 traderfromhell

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Posted 28 November 2004 - 11:31 PM

FWIW Hank I'd be looking to load the boat on any move down in the HUI 200-225 or so. I don't think you have to be the greatest trader to make money the next few years in the miners. I like CDE best of all the pm stocks for the long run. Staying fully invested and ignoring all the noise will be the best thing you can do.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#4 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 28 November 2004 - 11:41 PM

TFH,
Yes, I am actually hoping for a move down with any decent reversal pattern to start really "loading the boat" as you say. I am kicking myself for not having the
b____s to do it at the wave W terminus. I had seen many indications this was a major swing i.e. perfect 9 wave down of larger A-B-C with osc divergences right at the .618 retrace. Great set-up and I entered a few like NEM but then got cold feet and sold out. Got too hung up on thinking another wave down was due, letting preconceived EW notions get too much in the way of my trading. Thanks for your posts and helpful trading insights!

Ohh I have a daily Cardwell on gold at $460 so I have a good notion we are about to see a pretty good top and larger pull-back...only to be bought for sure :D

I have to look at CDE, tanks!


Hank

#5 traderfromhell

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Posted 29 November 2004 - 07:28 AM

TFH,
Yes, I am actually hoping for a move down with any decent reversal pattern to start really "loading the boat" as you say.  I am kicking myself for not having the
b____s to do it at the wave W terminus.  I had seen many indications this was a major swing i.e. perfect 9 wave down of larger A-B-C with osc divergences right at the .618 retrace.  Great set-up and I entered a few like NEM but then got cold feet and sold out.  Got too hung up on thinking another wave down was due,  letting preconceived EW notions get too much in the way of my  trading.  Thanks for your posts and helpful trading insights!

Ohh I have a daily Cardwell on gold at $460  so I have a good notion we are about to see a pretty good top and larger pull-back...only to be bought for sure :D

I have to look at CDE, tanks!


Hank

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>


Before you condemn GSS and CDE to the scrap heap put them up on 10 year charts and tell me what you see.
Don't steal. The government hates competition.

#6 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 02 December 2004 - 04:56 PM

I have a good notion we are about to see a pretty good top and larger pull-back


Put my sell order on UNWPX before the 2 O'Clock MF deadline and hopefully we won't get clobbered tomorrow and I can exit with a only a slight loss.

FCS issued a SELL today.

Chances are this is the start of something bigger unless we get a very strong bounce tomorrow.

I feel just like the little guy here with Santa bullion and the Miner's elf :blink:

Chart: 50 DMA and TL's obliterated, doesn't look much better on weekly,
Support at 220 then 210...50 week SMA lies just over 210 also.

Attached Images

  • 1_BadSanta.gif
  • HUI12.2.04.gif


#7 traderfromhell

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Posted 02 December 2004 - 08:54 PM

Worst case I would think is the 50% retrace off the May lows around 206.
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#8 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 04 December 2004 - 04:53 PM

81.7 support broken. Definitely looking for sub-80 now.

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  • USD12.3.04DT.gif


#9 FeedFool

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Posted 04 December 2004 - 05:42 PM

Looks like wave 4. Check out the STOCH position. Donít ask me why wave B is going to be longer then A wave

Itís got nothing to do with Preacher

Not sure where the wave 2 will end but it should end lower then wave 1 high but lot higher then Wave A Low. E wave should come down very fast,

Shake em baby then wow wave 3

I have a good notion we are about to see a pretty good top and larger pull-back


Put my sell order on UNWPX before the 2 O'Clock MF deadline and hopefully we won't get clobbered tomorrow and I can exit with a only a slight loss.

FCS obviously issued a sell today.

Chances are this is the start of something bigger unless we get a very strong bounce tomorrow.

I feel just like the little guy here with Santa bullion and the Miner's elf :blink:

Chart: 50 DMA and TL's obliterated, doesn't look much better on weekly,
Support at 220 then 210...50 week SMA lies just over 210 also.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Attached Images

  • untitled.GIF


#10 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 04 December 2004 - 07:20 PM

FF,

Well, I am looking at the following for this immediate correction. I see a lot that points to a very minor correction not taking out the recent low @218 but I think worse case is actually a bit lower than what TFH is looking for with the following reasons.

We are at the 13 week SMA which has served as important support during recent bullish runs. However one time with this oscillator configuration (first ST OSC sell with strong LT Osc buy was during the last major correction before the huge 2003 run... here the lower 13 week BB and .618 retracement held the correction so this would be maximum damage here and really great opportunity to load up but this very well could turn around right here and rocket upward. Everything points to this being corrective and this very well being the final wave down before an explosive move up :D

Attached Images

  • HUI12.3.04weeklyBB.gif


#11 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 04 December 2004 - 07:49 PM

SQ 144 on buck bloodbath...

Think bullion could pop again one more time with final $ SC for this leg down then a few months of consolidating before the next fall.

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  • USD12.3.04SQ144.gif


#12 traderfromhell

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Posted 04 December 2004 - 08:47 PM

I think where we're getting tripped up here is in focusing on the dollar versus that other piece of ultimate garbage the euro. The miners have been sold because the world sees support in the buck 80-83 in that area you know. Ultimately we will get a separation and the metals and the dollar or you can pick your pos fiat also go up. Gold wins in the end. Mining shares should be worth one monster pop when the public gets involved. Let's not miss the forest for the trees. 198-212 would be my guess and it is a guess for a bottom in the HUI if and I mean if we go down from here. This is I believe a bull market and they are very tricky to time. I still hold my USERX position with a stop at 8.02. Bought GSS Friday for a long term speculation and am buying CDE in size shortly.
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#13 MrHankydoesWallStreet

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Posted 05 December 2004 - 07:37 PM

i agree the next stage is gold gaining against all fiat. euro probably bubbled strickly from $ exodus. now what, well, I think we all know and are waiting for the rest of the folks to catch on for the real blast off.

The daily +reversal target on gold has been hit but the weekly points to
$475. Also the -reversal target on dolar is at 77.5.

XAU daily has been met at 110. Weekly not real clean signal but portends 130ish.

HUI has 260 target on daily and developing a smaller weekly +reversal on this pull back which confirms we are definitely in bull mode :D
HUI has an established weekly + reversal pointing ultimately @316 which I think I have shown before:D

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  • USD12.3.04RSI.gif


#14 traderfromhell

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Posted 08 December 2004 - 12:54 AM

Big test coming up shortly. I can see risk down to 7.15 Silver. Currently 7.66. Gold may want to test area of breakout now at 432. Or maybe we get JM's big blast off a shakeout bottom shortly. Miners must hold 203ish. In that area + or- 2%. May get a capitulation bottom in here. Some of your favorite 4 dollar stocks may be wearing a low 3 buck and some handle in a few days.
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Posted 08 December 2004 - 11:31 PM

GOLD / HUI

Which market leads?

Was the double top @ 258 a gross overshoot?

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