US market

[Guest]

I haven?t properly explained why I have become near term bullish so here goes.

 

I believe we completed an elongated flat ABC up move in the beginning of March. This might be construed as a valid wave B (or 2) in terms of a major degree bear market if it weren?t for one nagging concern. Going back to the end of 2002 it now seems very likely that the move higher starting in early October was in fact an ending diagonal. This obviously implies that it is terminating something and the way I see it that can only be a flat starting at the July lows.

 

Unfortunately I don?t have locally stored intraday price records going back further than round about then but from the daily records it seems likely that this means the move down from early 2002 becomes a zigzag or in other words a 3.

 

Certainly what happened previously is open to discussion but I remain pretty convinced that the consolidation in 2001 was a flat or in other words again a 3.

 

Putting it all together would then give a count of 3-3-3 which is clearly not a valid construction. The only way it can become valid is if the C wave is instead a terminal i.e. a 3-3-3-3-3 implying more upside to come. Of course this assumes the overall pattern is not a triangle which I am at least for the moment discounting due to the lack of appreciable downside momentum despite the recent excitement.

[Guest]

Shorter term I continue to see the action as some sort of a terminal given all the overlapping action, with (an extended) T5 developing as a triangle.

 

In order for this scenario to remain valid we either need to break higher pretty much immediately or go into a further narrowing consolidation implying the 5th wave of the triangle is itself sub-dividing.

 

On the other hand, if we get a high momentum move down following a weakish rally something else is going on.

[Guest]

In my view probabilities greatly favour we have completed an impulse wave up and are heading down in a zigzag wave 2, probably with v of 3 of C almost done.

 

Very small outside chance that what seems a decent 5 wave impulse is the C wave of some sort of flat from the prior corrective mess but I am extremely dubious of this.

 

Looking for a small degree wave 3 up to start sometime today.