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Oyster Report from January 28 Rate Topic:

#1

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Posted 28 January 2004 - 06:56 AM

Hello folks,

Finally, Oyster is back.

Unfortunately, he was allocated very little time today and only mentioned the S&P-500 and gold. In addition, he based his analysis on a technique I am not sufficiently familiar with - Gann lines. On the top of that, the Crapvision morons didn't show any charts illustrating what he was talking about; they only showed a plain S&P-500 daily price chart from 1999 - with no indicators or any lines on it. :angry:

Anyway, I'll give you my best try to report what Oyster said.

He said that after managing to circumvent the important resistance at 1080, the SPX is approaching another important resistance at 1153 - and has probably been turned down from that area yesterday. The way he comes up with that number is that he sees a Gann line from the all-time high (1553). Below is a chart from MarketScreen.com with automatic Gann fans; that's the best I could find to illustrate his point:

Posted Image

He also said that 1153 is 400 points below the all-time high of 1553, although I fail to see the significance of this. He expects a correction here, with possible support at 1137.50, 1115 and, ultimately, if all those are broken, 953. If the 1153 resistance is broken, he sees the next important resistance area at 1170-1177 (the 2002 high, Fibonacci retracement between the all-time high and the October 2002 low, etc.).

He also mentioned that the DJIA, the SOX and the FTSE had retreated from the very same Gann line as the SPX. He expects some kind of a low around February 15-17.

Sorry if the above isn't very clear of if I have misreported something; as I said, I am not sufficiently familiar with Gann analysis and don't understand the reasoning behind much of it. I do agree with the "we ought to be going down, finally" feeling, though! :grin:

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#2

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Posted 28 January 2004 - 07:02 AM

Regarding gold, he said that the correction he expected is happening. He said that we have probably seen the lows for now, and he expects some kind of secondary top in the second week of February. Then gold should trend generally down into April-May, and will very probably break below 400 - although he didn't say how much lower he expects it to fall.

Personally, I agree with the "trend down into mid-year; fall below 400" analysis myself, although I don't understand where the expectation for a secondary high in mid-February comes from. Probably some kind of seasonal cycle. Also, I expect the low to be in the 372-387 range - although for that to be considered, the support in the 390s has to be broken first.

Well, that's all this time, folks.

Regards,
Vesselin

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#3 Bearman

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Posted 28 January 2004 - 11:46 AM

TANKS

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#4 Butterfield 8

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Posted 28 January 2004 - 11:52 AM

Larry Wachtel on Crapvision: "If we don't go down in February, we are NEVER going down"

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#5 machinehead

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Posted 28 January 2004 - 12:06 PM

Butterfield 8, on Jan 28 2004, 10:52 AM, said:

Larry Wachtel on Crapvision: "If we don't go down in February, we are NEVER going down"

In other words, we've reached a Permanently High Plateau (PHP).

"GOLD -- it's not just for misers anymore."

"Dollahs -- fire-starters for the K-wave winter." - Drano

"Three humps and a dump." - anotherone, 21 SEP 2004

"No gold was harmed in the making of this movie." - Bizarro Greenspan

[i]"Da Track. Da place where Morons bet on Animals Controlled by Criminals." - our jickiss

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#6 TGakaTheBigHurt

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 10:34 AM

Oyster was talking about a weekly Gann line with a ratio/slope of -2 points per week.

This past week was 200 weeks from all time high and the market apparently hit a snag pretty close to 400 points below that all time SPX high.

At 1155.4 pretty close to a 50% retracement no matter which pivot you use for the bull market top (1553 in March 2000 or 1530 in Sept) or which of the bottoms you use (769 in Oct 02 or 789 in March 03).

Personally, I think late March to early April (potential 18 month cycle lows) looks good for the bottom of a correction but I doubt it will be straight down for the next two months.

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#7 Grand Poopercycle

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Posted 30 January 2004 - 05:30 PM

Thought 18-mo. cycle does not bottom until September-last two lows
(I believe)in March '03 and Sept.'01.
Straight down for two months unlikely(up only direction that sort of
thing permitted to occur in)-though many Stoolies would undoubtedly
be in rapture over such; revisiting 3-digits on SPX may be all that's
available-for now.

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#8

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Posted 04 February 2004 - 08:33 AM

Drat, missed Oyster's presentation this Wednesday.

Did anyone watch it?

Regards,
Vesselin

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#9 TGakaTheBigHurt

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Posted 04 February 2004 - 07:39 PM

Saw it.

Once again they gave him very little time and most of his comments were confined to the SPX.

He maintained he thinks a decent correction is nearing.

He also provided Feb 17th as a key date that may be a secondary high and he said we could still see a slightly higher high towards that date, such as a test of the Jan 02 1177 high.

He didn't say where the Feb 17th date comes from.

That was about it.

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#10 traderfromhell

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Post icon Posted 04 February 2004 - 07:55 PM

Please pardon my ignorance but could someone tell me who Oyster is.

Don't steal. The government hates competition.

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#11 Hiding Bear

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Posted 04 February 2004 - 08:09 PM

traderfromhell, on Feb 4 2004, 06:55 PM, said:

Please pardon my ignorance but could someone tell me who Oyster is.

This is his site. You might be able to get a free trial subscription.

Oyster

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#12 traderfromhell

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Posted 04 February 2004 - 08:55 PM

Thanks HB. Speaking of Gann, what the hell happened to Phyllis Kahn and the Gann Angles newsletter? She used to be on FNN all the time.

Don't steal. The government hates competition.

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#13

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Posted 05 February 2004 - 08:14 AM

traderfromhell, on Feb 4 2004, 06:55 PM, said:

Please pardon my ignorance but could someone tell me who Oyster is.

Oyster is Chris Locke - a technical analyst who appears on Crapvision-Europe (only) every Wednesday morning. He sometimes posts here under the handle "Oyster". He is very good - just about the only one worth watching on Crapvision. Unlike the others, he usually gives clear arguments and charts supporting his opinion, so even when he's wrong, one can learn something from his presentations. With the exception of the March rally (which he predicted but which he expected to end in May-June), he's been invaliably bearish on the market. He is convinced that we're still in a bear market and this recent rally was just a bear market rally.

Regards,
Vesselin

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Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board: Oyster Report - Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board

Oyster Report from January 28 Rate Topic:

#1

#2

#3 Bearman

#4 Butterfield 8

#5 machinehead

#6 TGakaTheBigHurt

#7 Grand Poopercycle

#8

#9 TGakaTheBigHurt

#10 traderfromhell

#11 Hiding Bear

#12 traderfromhell

#13

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