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Has anyone here research Ted Butler's claims about silver? Basically he claims there's a shortage of real silver, and a deficit situation will occur. I am not super concerned, as all I really care about is that silver does better than toilet paper. Is that degree of bullishness justified?
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Holding Silver
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MultiQuote#2 Guest_yobob1_*
Posted 19 January 2004 - 06:48 AM
I think it is sufficiently well documented to give it serious consideration. If he and others are correct we shouldn't have to wait too much longer to find out. I think at the very least silver should return to it's traditional ratio to gold. That alone would drive the price to about $25+ with gold at current prices. If Ted and others are right it could well shoot right past that ratio for a period of time. It's also quite likely that gold will not remain static while all of these adjustments in silver are occurring. I think most will be tempted to sell far too early as various temporary equilibriums are reached only to step up to the next level in order to bring supply to market.
#3
tpark 
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Posted 19 January 2004 - 01:56 PM
Thanks for your comments.
COT
Does this mean there's a total of 132,542 short contracts for silver?
US Government Silver Info
That seems like an awful lot of silver to have to cough up if someone wants delivery. Am I missing or misinterpreting something?
COT
Does this mean there's a total of 132,542 short contracts for silver?
US Government Silver Info
That seems like an awful lot of silver to have to cough up if someone wants delivery. Am I missing or misinterpreting something?
#4 Guest_yobob1_*
Posted 19 January 2004 - 02:42 PM
tpark, on Jan 19 2004, 10:56 AM, said:
Thanks for your comments.
COT
Does this mean there's a total of 132,542 short contracts for silver?
US Government Silver Info
That seems like an awful lot of silver to have to cough up if someone wants delivery. Am I missing or misinterpreting something?
COT
Does this mean there's a total of 132,542 short contracts for silver?
US Government Silver Info
That seems like an awful lot of silver to have to cough up if someone wants delivery. Am I missing or misinterpreting something?
Nope. If a few start asking for physical delivery, it's game over. The shorts represent more than a years production. They can fork around as much as they want, but sooner or later the game will have to end when the silver runs out. Silver is unique in that is heavily used by industry and is also historically money.
#5 Guest_yobob1_*
Posted 20 January 2004 - 08:10 AM
Here's something interesting that came to my attention. I'm not big on TA, however I do like charts as a visual aid to speculate on what funnymentals are causing what reactions. Silver lease rates, IMO, are beginning to show shorts scrambling to either cover their postions or short at higher levels. There is no perfect correlation nor can you say that "a" precedes "b", but these spikes seem anomalous and to me indicative of increasing stresses in the physical silver market
Gold on the other hand while spikey and jerky has been in a fairly steady downtrend over the last year with the moves in a pretty tight range
Gold on the other hand while spikey and jerky has been in a fairly steady downtrend over the last year with the moves in a pretty tight range
#6
Scully
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Posted 21 January 2004 - 12:55 AM
The leasing rate spikes for silver occur just prior to a slamdown by the commercial shorts. They lease a bunch of silver to make sure they have physical on hand, so they can trigger enough of a price drop to start running the sell-stops.
#7 Guest_yobob1_*
Posted 21 January 2004 - 09:56 AM
Scully, on Jan 20 2004, 09:55 PM, said:
The leasing rate spikes for silver occur just prior to a slamdown by the commercial shorts. They lease a bunch of silver to make sure they have physical on hand, so they can trigger enough of a price drop to start running the sell-stops.
One possible interpretation and if so it would appear that they have lost the handle.
The "slam down" is losing it's effect since the middle of last year.
#9 Guest_yobob1_*
Posted 21 January 2004 - 10:48 AM
T_Minus, on Jan 21 2004, 07:26 AM, said:
Remember, casting is easier than you think!
Got antique silver scrap?
If you don't, I'm sure you can make some!
Got antique silver scrap?
If you don't, I'm sure you can make some!
Prices will hae to be much higher (or individual desparation levels much higher) before heirlooms are melted. Casting is easy if you can get high enough sustained temps. Can't be done in your easy-bake oven.
#10
tpark
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Posted 21 January 2004 - 11:10 AM
I suspect that some beautiful works of art done in silver have been destroyed for the silver content. I suspect a lot of J6P's who have silver items will sell them for metal value, but a lot of artifacts were lost in the last silver price spike. As for melting, I can understand the bar charge, since you have to deal with some sort of insanely hot metal object for cast bars.
I see silver took a hit today, but I suspect the days of cheap silver are coming to an end.
I see silver took a hit today, but I suspect the days of cheap silver are coming to an end.
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