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Any Taker On The 5th Wave Theories
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#2
MrHankydoesWallStreet 
- Master of Stock Proctology
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Posted 03 January 2004 - 10:57 AM
FF,
I follow Zoran Guyer's EW analysis and this is how he is counting the Dow:
Double top or new high in the Dow the MOST likely outcome.
A "failed 5th" would be the exception but not very common.
I follow Zoran Guyer's EW analysis and this is how he is counting the Dow:
Double top or new high in the Dow the MOST likely outcome.
A "failed 5th" would be the exception but not very common.
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#3
MrHankydoesWallStreet
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Posted 03 January 2004 - 11:08 AM
#4
MrHankydoesWallStreet
- Master of Stock Proctology
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Posted 03 January 2004 - 12:11 PM
depends,
You have caught on to us. As soon as I see someone else's count I try to
change it, then if ends up happening I get the credit!!
LT counts are essentially useless but still fun to take stabs at ... then look back in a few years and see how wrong they were.
ST and IT counts a little more useful for trading but NEVER as an isolated technique.
Hank
You have caught on to us. As soon as I see someone else's count I try to
change it, then if ends up happening I get the credit!!
LT counts are essentially useless but still fun to take stabs at ... then look back in a few years and see how wrong they were.
ST and IT counts a little more useful for trading but NEVER as an isolated technique.
Hank
#5
FeedFool
- Clinical Professor of Stock Proctology
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Posted 03 January 2004 - 03:15 PM
Hank,
I would not put 1987 crash as wave 2 because it’s not an ABC correction. Looks more like B wave then one can count it as ABC up then ABC down from Y2K, We should be looking for ABC up to complete the wave 5 still has more leg up. Look at XOM,
I like to see ABC corrections before one start labelling waves and 1987 crash can’t be wave 2.
I would not put 1987 crash as wave 2 because it’s not an ABC correction. Looks more like B wave then one can count it as ABC up then ABC down from Y2K, We should be looking for ABC up to complete the wave 5 still has more leg up. Look at XOM,
I like to see ABC corrections before one start labelling waves and 1987 crash can’t be wave 2.
#6
porter
- Stock Proctology Intern
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Posted 17 January 2004 - 02:56 AM
Hank,
My Wave 5 will take close to a decade to complete. This of course presents numerous problems the least of which is how to prove it's going to take place WITHOUT having to wait years for it to unfold completely. At the end of this missive I'll share with you the litmas test for its validation.
I was always troubled by the bottom of Wave 4. Why didn't it fall apart and just head down to Dow 6000? Then after the market began to rise from 7200 another question arose. Why didn't the ensuing rise morph into a "B" followed by a "C" taking us down to Dow 6000? That's what most e-wavers expected.
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IMO, few investors anticipate a decade long ascending triangle to complete Wave 5. So go back to your chart. Let's leave the Wave 4 label as is. For Wave 5 (the right side of the ascending triangle) let's label your Wave 5 the following: Wave 1 of 5 and Wave 1 should end before November at a slightly higher high than our all-time high. Then we head down into years 2005-2006 for Wave 2 and it should complete its move at Dow 8500-9000. Then we head up once again for Wave 3 to a still slightly higher high...
Wave 5 should end somewhere around the end of the decade. Either Wave 3 or Wave 5 should take the Dow to 12,400+. (Wave 5 may end up being a failure.)
The test for validation of the above is simple. A move below the proposed rising diagonal (commencing from the Wave 4 label at Dow 7200) would invalidate the ascending triangle thesis.
Cheers.
Porter
My Wave 5 will take close to a decade to complete. This of course presents numerous problems the least of which is how to prove it's going to take place WITHOUT having to wait years for it to unfold completely. At the end of this missive I'll share with you the litmas test for its validation.
I was always troubled by the bottom of Wave 4. Why didn't it fall apart and just head down to Dow 6000? Then after the market began to rise from 7200 another question arose. Why didn't the ensuing rise morph into a "B" followed by a "C" taking us down to Dow 6000? That's what most e-wavers expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IMO, few investors anticipate a decade long ascending triangle to complete Wave 5. So go back to your chart. Let's leave the Wave 4 label as is. For Wave 5 (the right side of the ascending triangle) let's label your Wave 5 the following: Wave 1 of 5 and Wave 1 should end before November at a slightly higher high than our all-time high. Then we head down into years 2005-2006 for Wave 2 and it should complete its move at Dow 8500-9000. Then we head up once again for Wave 3 to a still slightly higher high...
Wave 5 should end somewhere around the end of the decade. Either Wave 3 or Wave 5 should take the Dow to 12,400+. (Wave 5 may end up being a failure.)
The test for validation of the above is simple. A move below the proposed rising diagonal (commencing from the Wave 4 label at Dow 7200) would invalidate the ascending triangle thesis.
Cheers.
Porter
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