Dr. Bontchev Please Help Me
#2
Posted 27 December 2002 - 07:29 AM
First of all, you can't do it with the board's built-in means of posting images (i.e., the IMG tag) - you have to use pure HTML. Click the Quote button on this message of mine to see how I have done it.
The transparency of the second image is achieved by the
style="filter:alpha(opacity=60);
attribute. The overlapping is achieved by the other 3 attributes:
position:relative; left:0; top:-551
In this case, the number "-551" comes from the height (551 pixels) of the second image. It is 551 in this case - but would be a different number if additional indicators or a different chart size is used. I used "large" chart size because it is more suitable for this site's design; in his original message to ClearStation he has used "huge" chart size, so the number there is 675.
To determine what the exact number should be, while you're previewing your post (i.e., before you click on the "Add Reply" button), right-click on the image and choose "Save Picture As" from the menu that pops up (assuming that you are using Internet Explorer as your browser). This will save the image as a BMP file on your hard disk. Open the saved file with Paint and then press Ctrl-E. This should display a dialog with the attributes of the image; notice the number in the "Height" field - that's the number you want.
Finally, note that this method leaves an ugly empty space beneath the two superimposed messages - I don't know how to avoid that.
Hope this helps.
Regards,
Vesselin
#4
Posted 28 December 2002 - 04:35 PM
FeedFool, on Dec 27 2002, 05:25 PM, said:
Ah, right, it's not obvious. For those who haven't figured it out, the two overlapping charts in my message are posted by the following two (long!) lines.
Line #1:
<img src="http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$compq,uu[l,a]daclyiay[df][pb13! b50][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]">
Line #2:
<img src="http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SharpChartv05.ServletDriver?chart=$nasi,uu[l,a]daclyiay[df][pb13! b50][vc60][iub14!la12,26,9]", border="0", style="filter:alpha(opacity=60); position:relative; left:0; top:-551">
The text in my message explains the meaning of the most important parts of them.
Regards,
Vesselin
#5
Posted 29 December 2002 - 05:43 PM
Do you know of any (free) web sites that instruct investors about investors' money management principles? That is risk/reward, % money invest, % per trade, % loss .... so on and so forth.
There is much web info on charts, company data, co. news, ect., but I have not found much in the way traders manage their trades/money.
Thank you,
Steve
#6
Posted 30 December 2002 - 05:58 AM
Explaining risk/reward is easy. Suppose a stock is now at 20. You have reasons (technical, fundamental, whatever) to think that it will go up to at least 25. The difference (25-20=5) is your reward. Before entering a trade, you must decide where your stop is going to be, in case you are wrong and the market turns against you. Setting stops is a whole science on its own - they can be fixed according to your risk tolerance (e.g., William O'Neal recommends 7% fixed stops), or they could be set at some particular technical level at which the pattern that has lead you to believe that the stock is going up would clearly fail, or they can be computed by various mathematical methods. Let's suppose that in our example you have determined (in advance!) that, if the stock falls below 18, your analysis has been wrong and it ain't gonna reach 25 any time soon - so you'll take your loss. The difference (20-18=2) is your risk. Well, then, in such a setup your risk/reward ratio is 2/5. It is generally recommended that you don't take trades unless your risk/reward ratio is 1/3 or lower.
How much money of your total assets to invest depends on your individual risk tolerance. The financial markets are risky. You could lose all of the money you decide to invest in them. How much of your total assets can you afford to lose without a significant impact on your life? That's the amount of money you should invest. Naturally, that amount is different for the different people. There is one additional factor, though. If you are under-capitalized (i.e., play with too little money), the commissions are going to eat up your acount quickly. So, playing with less than $10,000 usually doesn't make sense. A pro might be able to get away with less than that when trading options - but it is generally not recommended. If you can't afford to risk that much, you should either stay out of the market or not trade but invest the money in some mutual fund - i.e., let somebody else manage them for you. Of course, that's like going to Vegas, giving your money to somebody else to play with them and staying out of the casino until he comes out and tells you what has happened with your money.
How much of that money to invest per trade again is different for the different people and depends on their risk tolerance. I personally prefer not to invest more than 5% of the total portfolio value in any particular trade. OTOH, if one is following a good mechanical trading system with a high percentage of winning trades and small, pre-determined losses, one might be willing to invest 100% of the portfolio in each trade.
As for free Web sites explaining these issues - well, try a Google search, for instance - you'll come up with plenty of them.
Regards,
Vesselin
#10
Posted 10 January 2003 - 05:48 AM
Remember, the BPIs are computed as a percentage of the stocks in the corresponding index that show Buy signals on their P&F charts. That is, in order to compute a BPI, you must have an essentially automatic method for counting the stocks that have P&F Buy signals. StockCharts.com has this feature built into their P&F charting - if there is a Buy or Sell signal on the chart, the chart will display it at the bottom in green or red respectively. So, it's easy for them to do the counting.
I know that they are using many of the methods advanced by Dorsey Wright. Maybe his site also does BPI charting - but I think it's a paid site and I don't like their charts anyway (they are text charts - made by "X" and "O" characters).
A poor man's alternative is to do the following. Construct a private chartlist on StockCharts.com that contains all the stocks included in the SOX. Have all the charts be P&F ones. Then, each day, look at that chartlist, count how many charts have green signals, and compute what percentage that number is of the total number of charts. That would be the value of the SOX BPI for that day. Just the value should be useful enough (e.g., you'll know whether it is overbought or Dover Sole) but if you want to invest a bit more work in it, you can record the values and draw a chart yourself - e.g., with Excel.
Regards,
Vesselin
#11
Posted 10 January 2003 - 07:49 AM
Here is the kind of P&F table I suggested. According to it, currently there are 7 stocks showing Buy signals on their P&F charts, therefore the value of $BPISOX right now is 7 * 100 / 17 = 41.65.
Regards,
Vesselin
#12
Posted 10 January 2003 - 08:05 PM
The P&F charts above really accomplish what I am looking for anyway. A signal for when to short an individual stock.
Actually, in the near term the NAZ 100 is going to be in an "all boats rise and fall together" mode due to the ferocity of this current up move. I think all of my trading in 2003 is going to have to be based more on "near term" thinking anyway.
Thanks again.
#13
Posted 03 February 2003 - 02:14 AM
1. Amount Of Capital To Use: Divide your capital into (10) equal parts and never risk more than 1/10 of it on any trade, (try 5%). In today's market, you should work with at least $10,000, preferably $25,000, in risk capital and not risk more than 10% on any idea. If you try to work with less capital or don't have enough risk capital, I believe you should not trade commodities. This capital should not exceed 10% of your net worth.
2. Use Stop Loss Orders: Always protect a trade with stop loss orders to limit your losses. In today's market, use a (3) to (1) risk-reward ratio, risking no more than 10% of your risk capital, (try 5%); risk $500 to make $1,500, or do not make the trade.
3. Never Overtrade: This is violating your capital rules. Put only 10% of your capital at risk; never put more on any one idea.
4. Never Let A Profit Become A Loss: After you have a profit of $500 or more, move your stop loss up to break even so there will be no loss.
5. Don't Buck The Trend: Never buy or sell if you are not sure of the trend as indicated by your charts and rules. If you can't determine the trend to be either up or down stay out of the market.
6. When In Doubt, Get Out: Conversely, never get in until you're sure by using your trading rules.
7. Trade Only Active Markets: Keep out of slow, dead ones.
8. Distribute Risk Equally: Follow only (3) to (5) markets, trade in two or three different commodities. Trade a mixture of metals, grains, meats, currencies and interest rate futures. Small Traders try grains, meats, metals and foods. Large Traders can use any of the markets.
9. Use Market Orders To Exit A Trade:Trade at the market when you liquidate a position. Limit orders to enter a trade, but market orders are the best to liquidate.
10. Don't Close Out Your Trades Without A Good Reason: Follow up with stop loss orders to protect your profits. Let your stops for losses take your position out of the market. Short-term Traders liquidate at Double Tops, Double Bottoms, and Triple Tops, Triple Bottoms, unless the market is moving extremely fast, hold at Triple Tops and Bottoms.
11. Accumulate A Surplus: After you have made a series of successful trades, put some money into a surplus account for a buffer.
12. Never Buy to get a Dividend.
13. Never Average A Loss: This is one of the worst mistakes a trader can make. For example, Gold bought at $400 per oz. falls to $450. Don't buy more to average your price at $475. It could fall to $450 again leaving you twice the loss.
14. Never Get Out Of The Market Because You Have Lost Patience: Nor should you get into the market because you are anxious from waiting. For example, if you are holding Gold long for (2)-(3) weeks and it goes nowhere, as long as the trend is up, and you are not stopped out, stay in.
15. Never Cancel A Stop Loss Order: Once it has been placed at the time of the trade, leave it. This is the kind of discipline needed to make money.
16. Be Just As Willing To Sell Short As You Are To Buy Long: Your objective is to stay with the trend and to make money. If the trend slows down, sell on rallies to buy back at a lower price.
17. Never Buy Just Because The Price Of A Commodity Is Low Or Sell Short Just Because The Price Is High.
18. Be Careful About Pyramiding At The Wrong Time: Wait until the commodity is very active and has crossed resistance levels before buying more and until it has broken out of the zone of distribution before selling more. Adding to your positions can be very profitable at the right time. Select commodities with a strong trend up when buying and with definite downtrend to sell short.
19. Never Hedge: If you are long one commodity and it starts to go down, don't sell another commodity short to hedge it. Get out of the market. Take your loss and wait for another opportunity.
20. Never Change Your Position In The Market Without A Good Reason: When you make a trade, make it with good reason according to some definite rule. Then do not get out unless there is a definite indication of change in trend.
21. Avoid Increasing Your Trading After A Long Period Of Profitable Trades: You should keep a disciplined, planned trading program based on 5%-10% risk.
22. Don't Guess When The Market Has Topped: For long-term Trades (one month or more), let the market prove it is at its top. The same holds true for bottoms. By following definite rules, you can do this with accuracy. We give you how many times a top or bottom should be tested before breaking out.
23. Don't Follow Another Man's Advice Unless You Know That His Trading Systems Work.
24. Reduce Trading After The First Loss - Never increase! Risk 5% on the next trade.
25. Avoid Buying or Selling Late: These are double mistakes.
When you decide to make a trade, be sure that YOU are not violating any of the (25) rules. These are vital to your success. It is important to have enough money to trade these markets for many years to come. Proper use of risk capital will keep you in there. When you close a trade with a loss, go over these rules and see which ones you have violated. Then, do not make the same mistake again. Experience and investigation will convince you of the value of these rules. Observation and study will lead you to a correct and practical theory for successful trading in the futures market.
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