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My E-wave Count
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#1
The End 
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Posted 20 December 2002 - 10:40 PM
fur what it's worth. this is my count. thank you Anoscope.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
--Waters
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
--Waters
MultiQuote
#2
TGakaTheBigHurt
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Posted 20 December 2002 - 10:54 PM
I'm with you and I'm no E-waver. The downside of this last 105-116 trading day cycle (or 5-6 month intermediate cycle) so far has had the feel of last February's decline into the 3rd week of that month before the 100 point rally that fell just short of the 1177 high. No dramatic fire works at the bottom then either and a VIX that rose to about the same exact level as yesterday's high point before falling dramatically. Commercial traders and small specs are right at about the same point they were at last Feb too with comms in the process of building another huge short position and small specs getting more and more bullish as surely the low must be in by now. This is going to end badly again.
#3
PrtzlLogic
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Posted 21 December 2002 - 01:08 AM
Nice chart, TE. My ability to draw my own Elliot Wave charts can be summed up thusly, but I can read 'em okay. Yours looks like as good a count as any I've seen lately, and the price and (implied) time targets roughly jive w/ my own opinions.
"Well did you read the news today?
They say the danger's gone away.
But I can see the fires, still alight,
they're burning into the night." - Genesis, Land of Confusion
They say the danger's gone away.
But I can see the fires, still alight,
they're burning into the night." - Genesis, Land of Confusion
#4
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Posted 21 December 2002 - 07:12 AM
TE, I disagree with this count. Where do you start counting from, in order to have wave A (down) end at the July low? I see a 5-wave down move ending either at the July or the October low (depending on how one is counting) - which means that the upward correction should start from one of them; not have them in the middle.
Regards,
Vesselin
Regards,
Vesselin
#5
The End
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Posted 21 December 2002 - 08:39 AM
Dr B,
Ignore the circles. Ano could only do a closing price chart for me, but those are the correct dates.
I have 5 waves down into the july low which is A. The only problem i see is lack of symytry in that the abc of B should be longer but, i can live with it.
Becuase of symytry the 5 waves from the high could have ended in sept 01'. Which would put us in 3 or c down already.
Peace
Ignore the circles. Ano could only do a closing price chart for me, but those are the correct dates.
I have 5 waves down into the july low which is A. The only problem i see is lack of symytry in that the abc of B should be longer but, i can live with it.
Becuase of symytry the 5 waves from the high could have ended in sept 01'. Which would put us in 3 or c down already.
Peace
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
--Waters
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
--Waters
#6
simple guy
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Posted 22 December 2002 - 09:50 AM
SG also disagrees
you can read my opinions on the Q's for the short term on my thread on LOB
In the interim, I think we havent yet completed wave 2 up... and that should be starting this week for a MINI RALLY
Also, your wave 1 up off the Oct lows is too high to then count a wave 3 as complete if its 5 waves... which it isnt, IMO of course.... Im just a simple guy remember. Wave 3's are 161% of wave 1 usually... and your chart doesnt really indicate that...
Either way, ST I see a bounce and then a major down leg...
We completed Leg 1 down of 3 of 3 of 3.... and now wave 2 should carry us upward a bit.....
We shall see... nice charts though, I love em...
you can read my opinions on the Q's for the short term on my thread on LOB
In the interim, I think we havent yet completed wave 2 up... and that should be starting this week for a MINI RALLY
Also, your wave 1 up off the Oct lows is too high to then count a wave 3 as complete if its 5 waves... which it isnt, IMO of course.... Im just a simple guy remember. Wave 3's are 161% of wave 1 usually... and your chart doesnt really indicate that...
Either way, ST I see a bounce and then a major down leg...
We completed Leg 1 down of 3 of 3 of 3.... and now wave 2 should carry us upward a bit.....
We shall see... nice charts though, I love em...
#7
The End
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Posted 22 December 2002 - 02:58 PM
SG,
wave iii of the triangle is far shorter then wave i, true but, there is no rule that states wave iii must be 1.168 of wave i, just that wave three can't be the shortest wave, therefore wave v must be the shortest in this case, less the 82 points (waveiii). We shall see.
wave iii of the triangle is far shorter then wave i, true but, there is no rule that states wave iii must be 1.168 of wave i, just that wave three can't be the shortest wave, therefore wave v must be the shortest in this case, less the 82 points (waveiii). We shall see.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
--Waters
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
--Waters
#8
Sasquatch
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Posted 22 December 2002 - 05:33 PM
End..
There are few rules in EW, however one of them is that wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1, as the 1 thru 5 labelling sequence denotes an impulsive wave sequence. Your triangle is then best counted as a corrective [abcde] wave which will lead to the next impulse wave down..
I also have a problem with the Aug to Oct (5-wave) sequence being labelled a b-wave as they are by definition 3-wave structures.. In simple corrective patterns, the only waves allowed a 5-wave structure are waves a and c..
There are few rules in EW, however one of them is that wave 4 cannot overlap wave 1, as the 1 thru 5 labelling sequence denotes an impulsive wave sequence. Your triangle is then best counted as a corrective [abcde] wave which will lead to the next impulse wave down..
I also have a problem with the Aug to Oct (5-wave) sequence being labelled a b-wave as they are by definition 3-wave structures.. In simple corrective patterns, the only waves allowed a 5-wave structure are waves a and c..
#9
The End
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Posted 22 December 2002 - 05:48 PM
Sas,
Absolutely correct on the i-iv labeling. I consider it a triangle and if you want to label it a terminal a-e, That's fine.
As far as wave B. If you look at it on a smaller scale. It can be very easily a triple zig-zag. Zoran pointed this out to me. If it is NOT a triple zig-zag, Then it most likey is impulsive and that doen't work.
For know, I still see it the way it is labeled.
We go up to 908-962 and then fall apart beneth the Oct lows.
Absolutely correct on the i-iv labeling. I consider it a triangle and if you want to label it a terminal a-e, That's fine.
As far as wave B. If you look at it on a smaller scale. It can be very easily a triple zig-zag. Zoran pointed this out to me. If it is NOT a triple zig-zag, Then it most likey is impulsive and that doen't work.
For know, I still see it the way it is labeled.
We go up to 908-962 and then fall apart beneth the Oct lows.
NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
--Waters
And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.
--Waters
#10
Sasquatch
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Posted 22 December 2002 - 09:49 PM
End..
Have you studied JB Jackson's charts at Public Charts.com? He ties in the overall EWave count to MACD crosses and SAR hits.. Each of his charts are named for time periods, from Monthly to 5-minute on S&P and Nasdaq.. Right now he sees us in a triple nested correction being Waves IV, [2], and B, otherwise called an E-Wave nightmare to count.. His basing a count on these indicators takes a lot of guesswork out of the process, as he's been extremely accurate so far..
http://stockcharts.c...et?obj=ID107444
Have you studied JB Jackson's charts at Public Charts.com? He ties in the overall EWave count to MACD crosses and SAR hits.. Each of his charts are named for time periods, from Monthly to 5-minute on S&P and Nasdaq.. Right now he sees us in a triple nested correction being Waves IV, [2], and B, otherwise called an E-Wave nightmare to count.. His basing a count on these indicators takes a lot of guesswork out of the process, as he's been extremely accurate so far..
http://stockcharts.c...et?obj=ID107444
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