Housing - Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board

Housing Curtains? Rate Topic:

#1 MisterKrusty

Stock Proctology Intern

Group: Members
Posts: 37
Joined: 10-January 03

Posted 28 August 2003 - 09:44 AM

I'll admit it...I bought some LEAP puts on homebuilders a while back and am obviously now underwater on a mark-to-mkt basis. My Jan05 expiration gives me decent breathing room to emerge victorious, but still, shame on me for not realizing that Greenspan still had another bullet in his Fed-funds-rate gun.

But with the recent drama in the bond market, it would appear that said gun has misfired. Paradoxically, the back-up in rates has actually juiced homebuying activity, as would-be homebuyers get spooked that this may be their last chance to buy at historically low-ish rates. Somebody please correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't a similar phenomenon occur back in the early 90s?

So increased homesales = increased earnings = new highs for the likes of McMansion purveyors such as TOL. I'm thinking that that might present wonderful timing...the final draw-forward of demand along with a new high in the stock. Yes? No?

Sadly, these shorts are pretty crowded. Also, all the interest rate drama has caused much volatility, resulting in higher premiums on the puts. But maybe if things calm down a bit...

Back to top of the page up there ^
MultiQuote
Reply

#2 mjkst27

Professor of Stock Proctology

Group: Banned
Posts: 5,012
Joined: 29-January 02

Posted 28 August 2003 - 11:27 AM

if one ever needed more evidence that our economic system is laughable, the way the mortgage market works is it. Supply-and-demand balance is absolutely not at work here. The more demand there is for mortgages, the lower the rates went. The less demand, the higher rates went. I understand the mechanics behind it, but it's just funny to think that the maximum volume of transactions occurred when mortgage rates were most deviated from the long-term mean. Such increased market action should have prevented rates from ever getting so low. But. in a funny money system, there is no need for a market to "clear".

Back to top of the page up there ^
MultiQuote
Reply

#3 phatbubble

Assistant Professor of Stock Proctology

Group: Members
Posts: 3,099
Joined: 25-November 02

Posted 28 August 2003 - 06:45 PM

jan 05 is a long way off. the housing market is in deep shit.

Quod Severis Metes

Your life is the sum of a remainder of an unbalanced equation inherent to the programming of the Matrix. You are the eventuality of an internal anomaly, which despite my sincerest efforts, I have been unable to eliminate from what is otherwise a harmony of mathematical precision. While it remains a burden assiduously avoided, it is not unexpected, and thus not beyond a measure of control. Which has led you, inexorably, here.
You haven't answered my question.
Quite right. Interesting. That was quicker than the others.

Back to top of the page up there ^
MultiQuote
Reply

#4 NV 375

Stock Proctology Intern

Group: Members
Posts: 187
Joined: 08-April 02

Posted 29 August 2003 - 05:24 AM

MK,

Isn't that precisely what you would expect as rates about face higher? People rush in to buy before rates go higher. A temporary blip if you ask me. Unless rates can be rolled over again and I doubt it, don't think I'd worry.

Back to top of the page up there ^
MultiQuote
Reply

#5 Bird D Durr

Master of Stock Proctology

Group: Members
Posts: 1,413
Joined: 01-August 02

Posted 29 August 2003 - 11:45 AM

I can only speak for the 25-35 yr. old gang...................highly educated, mostly unemployed.................without a shot in hell of buying a 3-4 bedroom house and keeping a family in it.......................

Young people no longer embrace "the dream"........................that alone should be one of the biggest precursors..............