Bear Zone Stool for Fursday, 21 August

[ThorAss]

So Long, Farewell, Auf Weidersein, Good Night!

 

Okay so I still have some unmet upside targets on the major indices but there's always some upside.

 

Take the COMP as an example.

 

Weds high 1768.50, upside target met.

 

Next target 1776, +0.4%

 

Above 1830, +3.4%

 

Downside Targets

 

1. 1660, -6.1%

2. 1600, -9.5%

3. 1450, -18.0%

 

I think we have a decline coming that may or may not lead to a bounce which may or may not lead to a higher high which may or may not take us back down to and may or may not break the October lows. :grin: Anyway, I think the -18.0% is doable.

 

Most of the other indices give similar "stuff". The dirty $OX is a bit difficult but soon I think there will be a POR that silicon is not "as good as gold."

[ThorAss]

The $SPX revisited.

 

On Fursday, August 22, 2002 the SPX rallied to a high of 965.0 but that was all she wrote. From there it was down to the October lows with major rally tries all the way. There was no crapitulation at that low and the Boyz couldn't buy it back up fast enough. Bullishness never really reached any kind of meaningful nadir despite the long decline to reach the lows. This sentiment can be seen purely from the price action.

We did not exceed the 965 SPX high until this June. We have stayed above it since except for 2 breaks which have proved to be support. Clearly now this 960 area is the effective neckline for this rally and a decisive break of this should lead us forthwith to the low 800s, targetting 815.

Patterns suggest one more rally attempt. I'm expecting a Down,???,Up move over the next 3 days with the direction of the middle day deciding whether a new relative high is coming, up yes, down no. However, if we move up Fursday instead, (slightly lower probabilities), and close above Wednesday's high then I'm looking for a 1016 high Friday or Monday followed by a sizabull decline.

 

Doot doodle doot doot doot doot doo,

Doot doodle doot doot doo.

[ThorAss]

I see some potential upside on the SMegHeads and look at an important resline cross near 36.75 as a potential target in a few days or so. This might be an area to watch if you're still expecting the rally to continue.

[ThorAss]

Well, I've finally got around to starting something I've been promising myself to do for awhile, Suctor Swatch. Using the Holdrs and similar thingies I will attempt to catch the turds on a Suctor by Suctor basis. I don't know how far I'll go with this but I intend to wrap my trading schemes around it. I may use the Holdrs or I may scan for stocks within the suctor or I may position from a handful of suctor gorillas. It may come to a point where I keep a weekly update on my position Dong, Short, Neutered on each Suctor plus timely alerts. We'll see, oily days yet.

 

For now, I'll give you the alphabetical first which is BBH. And like that self-deprecating stock hawk commercial but in opposite-space, did I say BUY? ... I meant SHORTTTTTTTTTTTTTT. Look at the glaring bearish patterns and divergences. It may struggle up to 140, and it may not. Downside? 80s at least.

[Hiding Bear]

Thanks for the charts, etc..

 

A developing gasoline shortage here in the states. Of course, energy prices have no effect on goverment inflation figures - so that 1% fed funds to stop delation will stay in place. :grin:

 

 

NEW YORK -- Gasoline futures jumped 8% Thursday, amid worries of a gas shortage in the waning days of the summer driving season.

 

Crude oil for October delivery added 61 cents to $31.65 a barrel in midday trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. September heating-oil futures rose 2.56 cent to 82.80 cents a gallon. September gasoline climbed 6.54 cents to $1.07 a gallon, and September natural gas gained 15.6 cents to $5.28 per million British thermal units.

 

High prices in the New York Harbor gasoline cash market quickly convinced traders that there's a shortage of reformulated gasoline supplies, said Zone Energy floor specialist Tony Rosado.

 

A gasoline deal was reported done in the New York Habor cash market at 8.5 cents a gallon above the Nymex front-month futures contract price.

 

That rise was caused by an increased cost of Eurograde, a blending component for reformulated gasoline. It rose 3.35 cents a gallon overnight. The higher cost is attributed to the recent European heat wave, which lowered refinery outputs and led to decreased imports.