Chartorama 8/20

[2 floaters and a sinker]

Wedges are one of my favorite patterns. I've been tracking a wedges on all the indicies since the March low and I was troubled by the fact that they all seemed to be developing at significantly different speeds. Some are close to completing (if not completed already) while others have many points to go to complete the patterns. Which is one of the reasons I was calling for more up over the weekend. So I decided to look at some fib relationships.

 

SOX -- Wedge in green looks complete, five clean touches with a little throwover on the last one. The pattern suggests the move is over and a decline is due pretty quickly.

 

 

The Dow is within 50-75 points of completing its wedge. It's close enough to be done. Which would mean the rectangle breakout is a head fake.

 

 

But the broader market indicies still have more room to the upside... unless you look at the fib relationships from the bottom wedge line to the top wedge line. The NYA has quite a ways to go to the top of it's wedge. But it has travelled 50% of the distance, perfect fib relationship.

 

 

BKX has the furthest to go in percentage terms but it has stalled right at the .38 level. So it could be done.

 

 

Comp... .62 level -- a perfect place for a rally failure. (wedge is tough to see, it's the two green lines)

 

 

Same with the SPX.

 

 

And the VLE is within a handful of points of the top of its wedge.

 

 

So, does it mean we collapse tomorrow? Probably not. But one could consider the wedge patterns complete or nearly so on all the idicies. I'm considerably less bullish for the moment and looking for the roll over sooner rather than later.

 

I'm probably wrong. I usually am. We could just go straight to the moon.