[ThorAss]

Here we are smack dab in the market's prime "Tur(d)n Zone" August 19 to September 3, building a top with major bearish divergences. Mania continues unabated along with the suctor upgrades and the pumping and shucking and jiving. I'm still hoping for the nice quiet pullback which becomes a dip which leads to a correction followed by a selloff. I expect this to be accompanied by many rally calls and false starts. Should be fun. I'm expecting the last hurrah will come on an increase in bullishness and a major crap up but in this rounded top that need not happen. So I hang onto my shorts and my gold longsand wait like the dog I am. Come to me little goaties, baby needs a new pair of shoes.

[ThorAss]

Check out the comparison of the Nasdaq to the 83 Nikkei

Not a perfect tool for timing as it could go up for a while and a bit higher or go down straight away but the comarison defenitely suggests what we all know. That the bear is not done and we will all know that soon enough.

[Bearman]

ThorAss Lets hope U R correct

[ThorAss]

All dips being bought. Market remains price insensitive. If you have the bucks you buy stocks, the moovier the better. This will end at some point.

[ThorAss]

Wasn't able to reach the site or much else until the last little while. Only my Medved and Datek worked. Nothing else. Weird!

[ThorAss]

The quiet in here is deafening. Let us know if you think this forum is redundant now.

[ThorAss]

Little games being played across the Nasty world with support/res lines, wedges and such. Last move down to take out stops as the bottom of the wesge support fell. Watch them jam it back up. At some point the game will be a matter of how fast you can unload all the trash you accumulated before the garbos come.

[ThorAss]

Anybody been reading the feargreed dude lately. I swear he's losin' it. He predicts imminent collapse for both the PMS and the broads and every day we grind higher. He responds to this little problem each new report as if that's pretty much what he expected. Finally takes the gloves off in this last report signalling that if the broads keep going up then they'll keep going up and he won't say where the PMS may bottom until he's sure it has topped.

Well, duh, is all I can say.

[Hiding Bear]

ThorAss, on Aug 20 2003, 02:15 PM, said:

The quiet in here is deafening. Let us know if you think this forum is redundant now.

When not much is happening (except gold and similar subjects), there is not much to say.

Just my opinion, seems like Stollies are generally boolish on gold, PMs, and are willing to discuss them on other parts of Stoolville. So that takes away some contributions to the Bear Zone.

[ThorAss]

I think it is in our mindset, hardwired, to be bullish. Bearishness is not natural. Short-selling is also very weird. "Let me get this straight you make your living by selling stuff you don't own in hopes of buying it back cheaper at some point down the road after the price falls? And this is legal?"

There actually is no reason at all for the Bear Zone if PMS is the only game in town. That is being covered very well by my old friends at the Outpost.

IDS is all about riverboating and having fun. The outpost is a little more sober and circumspect but that is for the good of all I think.

I was hoping that we could create here an atmosphere which was conducive to those who preferred to play this market only from the short side. Notwithstanding a position or position in countercyclicals and gold and also not counting long Bear funds as the long side, I was hoping for a bit more participation from the bears who really have very little interest in catching the last few upside points but were more interested in the whats and whens of making coin off the next decline. This in an atmosphere safe from Haysian acolytes spewing garbage about the October bear market lows and the new bull market.

Well, this is what I thought might happen.
On a bear site.
In the middle of possibly the bearest of bear markets.

Sorry, my bad.

[Hiding Bear]

ThorAss, on Aug 20 2003, 03:04 PM, said:

I think it is in our mindset, hardwired, to be bullish. Bearishness is not natural. Short-selling is also very weird. "Let me get this straight you make your living by selling stuff you don't own in hopes of buying it back cheaper at some point down the road after the price falls? And this is legal?"

There actually is no reason at all for the Bear Zone if PMS is the only game in town. That is being covered very well by my old friends at the Outpost.

IDS is all about riverboating and having fun. The outpost is a little more sober and circumspect but that is for the good of all I think.

I was hoping that we could create here an atmosphere which was conducive to those who preferred to play this market only from the short side. Notwithstanding a position or position in countercyclicals and gold and also not counting long Bear funds as the long side, I was hoping for a bit more participation from the bears who really have very little interest in catching the last few upside points but were more interested in the whats and whens of making coin off the next decline. This in an atmosphere safe from Haysian acolytes spewing garbage about the October bear market lows and the new bull market.

Well, this is what I thought might happen.
On a bear site.
In the middle of possibly the bearest of bear markets.

Sorry, my bad.

I think you summed up the goal of Bear Zone very well. So where is everybody? Well, I guess it is more fun to discuss bearish issues when the downtrend is in progress and not when the market has been stuck for two months.

By the way, what is the Outpost?

[ThorAss]

Still see today as a manic buying frenzy no matter what the indices say. No change yet.

[ThorAss]

The question is this: How much of this manic buying is short-ass-covering? Hmmm, I wonder.

Anyway, The Outpost is the term I coined for Stool's Gold when it was as deserted ... well ... as a desert and about as popular as joining the French Foreign Legion. About like here now.

Bearish issues are still discussed on the usual venues of IDS and M2M. There has been some desertion and bad feelings of late and I was kinda hoping some on those who felt disenfranchised would migrate here. Hasn't happened. Seems nobody wants to miss out on even one point up or down. Longer term traders are shortening their timeframes I believe and swing trading on a very short horizon seems to be all the rege. Well, for those not riverboating their way to glory.

[ThorAss]

I currently have 22 individual short stock positions not including index shorts as well as 13 different PMS long positions.

All my shorts are tech, 19 Nas and 3 listed. All gave good sell signals in August. Most are underwater. 9 of the 22, have been manically bought today with the range being 2% to 7% higher even as the indices remain flat or weaken. I believe that vey soon most of these beauties are going to get hammered.

However, I may have to re-evaluate when and how I enter my short positions in the future for profit maximization with less drawdown.

One thing I would like to have a discussion about is ways to select or scan for short candidates especially from amongst the volatile ones. In other words how to scan for or select which stocks are likely to fall the greatest % in any decline. What criteria do people use etc.