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And I thought things where clearing up. 8-6-03 Rate Topic:

#1 The End

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Posted 06 August 2003 - 04:11 PM

Is the ABC complete?

Is the move off the lows impulsive?

If it is not an abc, but a true down move then one should expect that the move off the lows today is impulsive for another A b down from the highs C=A at 982ish for tomorrow and then down again. Target remains 947 950-955.

If it was wave one of three then the up wave today should be corrective. It looks corrective to me. we will find out tomorrow.

Note, For the C wave from yesterday till todays low, wave 3 was 1.618 wave 1, ergo the weird labeling (very short wave four and five) it is deffinetly an art.

Comments welcome.

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NONE of what I type, should be taken as financial advice.

And when you loose control, you'll reap the harvest that you've sown
And as the fear grows, the bad blood slows and turns to stone
And it's too late to loose the weight you used to need to throw around
So have a good drown, as you go down, alone
Dragged down by the stone.

--Waters

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#2

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Posted 07 August 2003 - 03:21 AM

The end, on Aug 6 2003, 04:11 PM, said:

Is the ABC complete?

Is the move off the lows impulsive?

I believe the answer to both questions is probably yes though I don�t tend to agree with your numbering of the ABC. Rather I think that move is probably the c wave of b of E (a flat).

That said I am not really backing this view with any conviction except for a few financials I donged yesterday with tight stops.

Time to hit the beach.

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#3

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Posted 18 August 2003 - 06:30 AM

FWIW, I still quite like the idea of a flat here but based on the seeming difficulty of movement within the clutter that would be the final C wave up I am tending towards the likelihood that it may be a failure wave.

According to Neely this means that it should not be less than 61.8% of A which would give a minimum target of around 994. However, this may also fit with the internals of what could IMO potentially be e of C. As such I�ll be looking to get short probably sometime today around those levels with fairly tight stops.

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#4

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Posted 20 August 2003 - 06:10 AM

I don�t want to get too excited just yet but we did seem to get a small but perfectly formed 5 wave move down on the S&P 500 yesterday displaying good impulsive and motive qualities; subdivision of the 3rd wave at small time resolution, alternation and good channelling characteristics. It could easily be the c wave of a flat but I nevertheless find these signs encouraging.

IMO, some kind of wave structure appears already or very close to completed. The speed of the next down move down should hopefully provide more information about whether the complete intermediate degree correction is behind us.

FWIW I added SOX shorts yesterday at what I had as a 6-7 week cycle high. I am not convinced the Elliot wave count is complete on the index but I simply couldn�t resist some of the IMO fabulous prices available on individual issues.

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#5 OceanBound

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Posted 29 August 2003 - 06:01 AM

I can not understand why it is so hard to post a graph but I think I got one. I hope it is big enough to see.

I see a pattern here that makes sence to me. All the indicators are at nose bleed levels which makes me nervous to go long though.

Feed back would be great!

68 days to 3
68 days to 5 (projected to Sep 15th)
34 days from 3 to 4

2 = 50% 1
5 =1?
4 = .618 of total move
(if we go to 1068.81)

1068-1071 is
.75 retracement of March 1175 high
.38 retracement of all time highs
2.618 of wave 1
1.618 from October lows

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#6 OceanBound

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Posted 29 August 2003 - 09:16 AM

Another Chart with more data

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#7

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Posted 29 August 2003 - 01:57 PM

You�re in good company there, Ocean, I caught a glimpse of Oyster on TV during the week and your count is basically identical to his, although he seemed to be mumbling something about a possible 5th wave failure.

However, I do have some problems with this count, the most important of which is that I can�t escape the near certain conclusion that the 3rd wave on your chart is a zigzag. So if it is in fact a 3 why on earth should the other waves be simple 5s? To me that makes no sense whatsoever.

When I started thinking about this some weeks ago I recalled the �extra� waves around Feb/March. Regardless of whether the move down into that time was a B or a D wave you would certainly expect it to be tight 3s. Instead we appear to get a 5. That is unless you combine the extra waves with the first 5 off the March price lows which gives us a near textbook expanded flat. Combine that with a zigzag for wave 3 © and you get a pair of 3s which at least to me appears much more consistent.

If you consider the 3rd wave a zigzag in my view it counts and channels to completion prior to the June highs. We then go down in a 3, up in a 3, and finally down in a 5 which to me strongly suggests a completed flat that would also alternate with wave 2/b. In any case the pretty clear cut 5 down there simply doesn�t fit in any other way, as far as I can see.

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#8 The End

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Posted 29 August 2003 - 02:08 PM

1068 is a possibility.

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#9 Grand Poopercycle

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Posted 29 August 2003 - 07:44 PM

But not likely IYHO? 1040?

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#10

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Posted 31 August 2003 - 04:20 AM

Ocean,

To elaborate slightly on my comments above it seems to me that your wave 4 flat has a 5-3-3 sub-wave structure. This can not be right!

I also think that the move up to the highs on the 22nd though pretty much uncountable had the look of a terminal.

I posted a count last week on IDS that with hindsight was clearly wrong; I�m afraid I got confused by noise on the 15 minute candles. However, over the weekend I have had more time to look at charts and in my view longer timeframes are very instructive.

30 minute candles:

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#11 OceanBound

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Posted 01 September 2003 - 06:12 PM

I just took a peek at the Monday overnight and see that we closed at 1012. MC Will this change your count?

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#12

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Posted 02 September 2003 - 04:54 AM

OceanBound, on Sep 1 2003, 06:12 PM, said:

I just took a peek at the Monday overnight and see that we closed at 1012. MC Will this change your count?

Nope, I stick to the cash market for EW counts so I would need to see something above 1011 to change my mind about the wave position. And above 1016 I�d start to get very worried.

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#13 OceanBound

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Posted 03 September 2003 - 08:39 AM

Looks like the ball game is more UP. I see resistance from June 18-02 at 1040 (red line) and support on May 02 and resistance on 6-6-02 (red line)in the 1050 area then comes the fib cluster around 1068-1073.

I have a proposed 5 wave up count here. If wave one started at 960 then wave 3 will have to be at least as long as wave 1 and reach to 1033. The way this looks though as a forecast that does not exceed the 68 day cycle is that the 4th wave can not be too complex (time wise) however it should be more complex than wave 2. This is looking way ahead but I just want to keep this discussion lively and open.

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#14 BudFox

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Posted 03 September 2003 - 05:13 PM

mY TWO CENTS

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"Greed captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit." - Gordon Gecco

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#15 OceanBound

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Posted 03 September 2003 - 05:19 PM

Bud

By your chart I see that we cut through your trend line today but closed right at it. How high can your count allow this move if we close higher?

Then what do you expect?

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Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board: And I thought things where clearing up. - Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board

And I thought things where clearing up. 8-6-03 Rate Topic:

#1 The End

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#5 OceanBound

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#6 OceanBound

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