I have always found the DOW to be the most useful of the reports. The signals it gave were valid for all three majors. When I began following the COT I was getting about a 6 week lead time. That narrowed down to about 2 weeks. During the second half of 2002 I stopped getting good signals. Then the minis began to be a factor seemingly masking their intentions. But I digress.
FWIW:
The current report, as of last Tuesday, showed a big jump in the long position for DOW commercials. The DOW minis don't balance out this position. They sold off 1/3 of their short position during the last one week period.
What are we to make of this? Did the commercials get dumb over the last year, NOT.
I went back and reevaluated the data. I found a strong negative correlation! Do I think that this is their situation, NOT. My guess is that they have found a way to mask their true intentions.
Until proven otherwise I am assuming a negative correlation. That would make the current signal extremely bearish. Remember the report is as of last Tuesday. That's right before the big sell-off day. Anyway it's something to think about. I wouldn't bet the farm on it.
I have included a weekly COT DOW chart. The arrows are mine. The chart is from softwarenorth.
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