We closed right where we had to...

[The End]

Including yours truly.

 

I expect a bit of waffeling around, more corrective Bullshit before a low sometime in mid-late May.

 

What happened today could have been two things.

 

Wave one and two of a new impulse down or wave four of five, with five up to go (most likely a truncation at the highs)

 

That AAII number is just unreal 63% bulls 19% bears.

 

Kinda indicates a TOP, no? :grin:

 

I jumped on the fence near days end with a 50% straddle, just in case.

 

I do not see us breaking to new highs but, can see us retesting slightly lower ones next week.

 

Like I said, The market did what it need to do to confuse.

 

I know I'm not SG but, I will tell ya what is on my mind.

 

Let's see what other stoolies have to say.

 

Weak-end Forum now open.

[Slothrop]

That's my analysis too, The End. Most likely scenario: back up next week, possibility of new highs, but not necessarily needed. Just enough to get some interesting divergences going in the oscillators and volatility indicators.

 

I look at the 63% bullish sentiment figure as extreme, but it's impossible to say when this finally results in a sell-off. It's an inexact indicator.

 

Could be Monday, could be one week from Monday. What we can say from this kind of extreme sentiment is that a very destructive period is just ahead for those who've become bullish again.

[The End]

Slothrop,

 

Granted, in regard to the aaii numbers. The end is nigh. At least to 850ish spx. Check out the 55-60 dma. If the 60 day cycle is topping then we shoul go to at least the moving average of said cycle and maybe well beyond it. Whether that be from an fifth wave top or a new impulse down.

[2 floaters and a sinker]

Failure wave at 920 would work and be very bearish.

 

A run to 930 or so would be perfect. A .78 retrace of the previous big A. It would put an exclamation point on this big ABC and down we go.

 

 

Edit: would also work with BB's timing.

 

Edit2: Let me clarify... top next week, starts down in wave one, wave two comes almost back and then whoosh by the eleventh...

[jr12]

I could be totally wrong, still trying to learn, but here is my take, no laughing please... maybe wave 4 not complete? max bounce to 905ish then down?

[The End]

Jr12,

 

You see things the way I see things(at least one way I see them). Good job Stoolie and tanks for posting the chart.

[Slothrop]

You're basically good, JR, but a-b-c-d-e's don't look like that.

 

I'd go with a (3) where your "b" is, 4 where your "c" is and 5 at the "d."

 

Go back and read the book again on the a-b-c-d-e stuff.

[jr12]

Thanks Slothrop, must admit I find the corrections a wee bit tricky to learn

[The End]

The point is that after five waves down initially, that last bit today was corrective no matter how you label it.

[The End]

For you bulls in the audience. I DON"T think it will play out but, the count is a valid one. From larry Tomlinsons site.

 

http://www.stockindextimer.com/

[Guest]

here is my take, no laughing please

The only thing that caused a slight snigger was your avatar; is that Tony Hancock?

 

But I am not laughing at your chart at all. Hopefully, the strength of a forum like this is that it can be used as a shared learning experience and peer review mechanism for what is essentially a highly subjective and poorly documented topic like Elliot.

 

A few comments though; Elliot originally used hourly charts to look for the smaller waves. If you go to a very small time resolution you will see waves or vibrations that while they may exist are smaller than those actually documented. FWIW, I use 15 minute bar charts but frequently change to hourly bars to try to crosscheck the count I think is unfolding.

 

As to your count itself, I think there is a fair chance that what you have labelled as 3 may actually be i of 3; wave 3 is usually expected to sub-divide, but has so far probably failed to oblige satisfactorily, in my view. However, we should get a better idea as the next move down unfolds but regardless this move appears impulsive to me.

 

Good job though, keep it up.

[marketneutral]

Here's my take:

 

Should complete wave iv of an ending diagonal late Monday/very early Tuesday, then one last rally into anywhere from late Friday into sometime Tuesday 5/6.

 

Here's a link to a chart of my count:

 

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$spx,uu[r,a]eeclyyay[pc20!c50!c200][vc60][ilb14!lm12!lp14,3,3][j11217489,y]&listNum=3

[simple guy]

Ultimate tops of wave 4

 

1720 NAS; 32.40 ish QQQ

 

Near term pullback soon, not quite yet due... 5th wave left.

 

Good pullback... then BIG surge into late June....

[Slothrop]

An impulsive wave in the C position of an ABC correction marks the end of that correction. It is not bearish.

[simple guy]

Good ex of what Slothrop said is that 3-3-5 ABC off the march 21 highs... the C was impulsive... then we headed up....

 

Nuther interesting ex is NXTL... look at a 5 year chart, or even more to see it. Its can "Irregular" ABC... with the c impulsive from 72 down to $3 per share....

 

The correction upward from there can be rather substantial.

 

NXTL at 13.92 now, and she may not stop til 29 per share.... down the road, not next week.... thats a .382 corrective move up of an irregular ABC

 

Recently its been forming a 4th wave corrective sideways channel, what Elliott termed a Flat correction... 7 waves or 11 waves in a channel, always the 7th or 11th to end it, followed by UPWARD thrust....

 

SG thinks we did the 7th wave last week, and the upward thrust is nigh.... towards 20

 

14.40, 15.39, 17, then 18.60.... then 20.5, then possible 26 if extended.

 

Dont have a chart handy, here is a simple YHOO chart 6 months. Note the top at 14... that was end of wave 3 up... and this 4th wave has channels, you can count 7 if you do flat bottom, flat top drawing.... 7 was 12.35 earlier this week... now we should bust over 14 and onward this coming week....

 

A classic Elliott buy signal

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=NXTL&d=c&k=c1...6m&l=on&z=m&q=l