simple guy Posted April 9, 2003 Report Posted April 9, 2003 SG on IDS today posted my trade, went from Cash into 200% short SPY at 1045 am print, about 88.80 at the time. Close at 86.90. SG on IDS this afternoon Waves on pattern as pre-saged Went short SPY at 200% at 1045 print SG says the running 4th wave fell today finally, to a 5th wave.... or.... this was just wave 1 of yet anothe 5 wave move down, and the 5th wave was actually yesterday's lows. In a 5 wave C down, you can get several 5 wave patterns within. My bet is the lows of this C move are still not complete or even close. Any move up here is a likely wave 2 move.... Retaining targets of 25.44, 25.21, 25.00 on Q's.... staying short SPY for a few days 25.44 hit near or at close, that gap is now filled on the QQQ index... and should lead to a moderate bounce up tomorrow. I have said yesterday that these C waves down in a 3-3-5 are a series of impulsive patterns in 5 waves, and we are cleary seeing that. I recalculated a target of 822 on the SP500 today as my bottom for this wave down. SG thinks QQQ will hit 25.21, 25.00 and probably 24.84 ranges as well at some point by end of week. My Fibonacci Turn window was April 9 intra-day for a ST top, as posted on several of my topics over the past week. This turned out to be spot on today, as we hit the peak around 1030 ish or so this morning, which is why I entered my 200% short trade at 1045 rydex print. I shorted the SPY because as I've been saying lately, this index will decline the most vs the others in my opinion. I've got 620-630 as the bottom of the next big 5 waves move down. Right now, Im going to continue to stick my neck out and say we have not seen the top of the ABC move yet.... and this is simply a C wave 5 wave move down in a series of 5's. We should then get a final rally to about 930 on the SP, 8950 on the DOW, and 1509 or more on the NAS. SG in the interim, remains short overnight via Rydex, mainly because I have lower targets still to be filled, and the QQQ still should likely test the 25.21 area anways, the A wave low. I also was in a client meeting and couldnt close out at the close... which I may have done otherwise to pocket profits and ride out a bounce tomorrow morning. That said.... lets look at SPY wave patterns now, on the SG approach here... 905 to 870.... 5 waves down ended today. A mild bounce as I expected and stated on IDS, would be .236, maybe .382. We got that bounce.... almost to the T of my SPY target I put out of 87.7 or 87.8. Then we started impulsively down into the close, closing near LOD. This indicates to me sub wave 3 is underway of 5 waves total down. Sub Wave 3 should take us somewhere around 822... possibly a bit higher than that. I will have to re-assess this tomorrow, but SG expects selling tomorrow and Friday. 8 days up to March 21 8 days down 5 days up to April 9 am 3 days down, 5 days down, or 8 days down from there. What makes the most sense is certainly 3 days down minimal into 11th, which is a possible turn window area, or 5 days down into the 15th.... Then SG expects a potential monster rally back up, especially on the QQQ or NAS index. In the interim, Im short, and short is good.... and based on wave patterns tomorrow, I will update you tomorrow night and see if my thoughts are still correct. A move below 815, and its possible the 4th wave ended today officially, my FIBO window, and we are heading towards my 630 SP500 target... over numerous months. Not betting that way yet.... lets see how it plays out. Positions: 200% short SP 500 via Rydex Tempest at 88.80 SPY Cash in IRA, Brokerage Accounts SG
simple guy Posted April 9, 2003 Author Report Posted April 9, 2003 Revisiting CPN As an E wave lesson on a stock, recently I took a position long in Calpine at 3.36 to 3.40. This was posted here and on the IDS board a few times. I also began to exit this trade at 4.07 to 4.10 last week, she ran to 4.37 or so.... I always get out early, better to book profit than be greedy and lose it. I suspected she should pullback off that extension wave 5, in an ABC fashion. Doing some calcs tonight (CPN at 3.66 close), I would look to get long at or about 3.30 again.... its a .618 retrace of the move from 2.60 to 4.37.... and its back at support line where she broke out. SG then expects a move over $6 per share.... Just an exercise to help you learn how waves work, sometimes they work well with individual stocks if enough volume etc... Cheers SG
simple guy Posted April 9, 2003 Author Report Posted April 9, 2003 Few other bearish ST notes P/C closed at .73.... that is very low still Outside down day today, this is bearish Vix at 30.91, some move up today, but its coming off lows...similar to levels at the Dec highs, Jan highs.... and a 4.46% gain reversal today may be a trend reversal beginning... Investor sentiment survey has 51% bulls!!! Same level as March 21 top!!! Finally, check out the SG waves chart on the VIX indicator.... and also, read my comments on bear market rallies... (not until we tank first big time though) Cheers SG
simple guy Posted April 9, 2003 Author Report Posted April 9, 2003 Im going to adjust my ST views a tad here after looking at charts a bit further. This 5 wave decline should end around 84 on the SPY Im changing this to now being in the beginning of 3rd wave down of this move from Monday morning highs... So, tomorrow and near term the bounce points should be about 85, then up to 86.5, then a terminal down wave to 84 even... At that point, I suspect a decent bounce rally.... lets say to 87.2 on SPY... I'll be getting out of shorts tomorrow morning if a nasty morning down into 1045 print area, or will wait til afternoon if better....
subprime Posted April 10, 2003 Report Posted April 10, 2003 What "vehicle" to you use to trade 200% short SPY?
Guest jrmfl Posted April 10, 2003 Report Posted April 10, 2003 GS, would you look at PKD for me. TIA.
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