Charmin Posted September 29, 2007 Report Posted September 29, 2007 The other day I spoke with a friend who owns tons of XOM stock. I commented that the dollar was going on 30 year lows and the response I got was that stocks were doing so well. Sure, XOM is at highs but cash is not king. I also commented about currencies and how gold was back to 740 or better and the response I got was that gold was unstable. Sure, stocks are at highs but cash is not king and the dollar is stable? If cash is not king, then maybe they're believing that stocks must go higher. It will be interesting to see just when the pigmen orchestrate the next attack. 750?
Charmin Posted September 29, 2007 Author Report Posted September 29, 2007 Friday Sept. 28 Gold for December delivery surged $10.10, or 1.5%, to end at $750 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract earlier hit an intraday high of $752.50, a new 27-year high. The record intraday all-time high for a benchmark gold futures contract on Nymex stands at $875 from Jan. 21, 1980.
bearvest Posted September 29, 2007 Report Posted September 29, 2007 C.O.T.'s I don't keep track of the COT's. But the Commercials are massively short. Numerically, they are short 296,412 contracts to 88,400 longs. Their short interest at 296,412 contracts to an open interest of 440,945 ( a ratio of 67.2% ), is as large as I've ever seen in the last 3 years. Does anyone have any long term statistics? http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1191008035.php http://www.softwarenorth.net/cot/current/charts/GC.png
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted September 29, 2007 Report Posted September 29, 2007 Depends how you look at it.
bearvest Posted September 29, 2007 Report Posted September 29, 2007 Depends how you look at it. 611557[/snapback] I'm looking for a pullback in a huge bull market. When I look back to December, 2005, there was a nasty and swift 10% correction.
bearvest Posted September 29, 2007 Report Posted September 29, 2007 $GPX: I've gone over all the charts for the miners, the indices, and gold itself off the October 2006 lows. I was looking for the cleanest technical and Elliott pattern. The $GPX has the easiest pattern. It's very bullish in the longer term, but it indicates that the rally may be due for a short pullback---likely a minor 4th wave. Typically, a 4th wave retraces only 38 to 50% of the 3rd wave and a natural stopping point is at the 4th wave of the prior 3rd. Thus, I'm looking for a pullback to between 965 to 980, and closer to 970.
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted September 29, 2007 Report Posted September 29, 2007 That Comex percentage chart says future gold is not over invested either way. So far most miners haven't reacted to Friday's gold price. The next correction in the regular markets is going to be very telling while watching the miners react.
Metamucil Posted September 29, 2007 Report Posted September 29, 2007 $GPX: I've gone over all the charts for the miners, the indices, and gold itself off the October 2006 lows. I was looking for the cleanest technical and Elliott pattern. The $GPX has the easiest pattern. It's very bullish in the longer term, but it indicates that the rally may be due for a short pullback---likely a minor 4th wave. Typically, a 4th wave retraces only 38 to 50% of the 3rd wave and a natural stopping point is at the 4th wave of the prior 3rd. Thus, I'm looking for a pullback to between 965 to 980, and closer to 970. 611561[/snapback] A revisit of the breakout would be quite a gift. Buy the dips. 71.04 is support and that is about the 20dEMA.
Metamucil Posted September 29, 2007 Report Posted September 29, 2007 The media are trumpeting gold and yes, COTs are shorter. Silver is not being mentioned very much and rose off support this week. The haha Heckler has resistance directly above, but should be good after that... In general, XAU 172 is major resistance.
bearvest Posted September 30, 2007 Report Posted September 30, 2007 HUI: I've been pondering this chart. A few things caught my eye. Most important is the lower trendline. Impulses move in a channel. With a possible 5 wave count, the trendline takes on very important significance. Second, there's a very pronounced support/resistance zone at about 358-368. It seems very likely it will be tested. Right now, a 38.2% retrace would hold at 357.42. The rally has been 25 days in duration. Thursday would be the (Fib) 34th trading day off the August 16th lows. It could be a pivot. It would tend to resolve the ambiguity between my incomplete impulse on the $GPX chart posted above and this chart. Right now the retracement zone is from 329.70 to 357.42. Like Meta says, if the chance to get on board this long-term rocket ride presents itself, it will be a "gift". The Fed has decided to re-flate the ecomony and "inflation and the dollar can be damned." Someday, I'll tell my grandson how I bought into the gold-rush of 2007.
dharma Posted September 30, 2007 Report Posted September 30, 2007 this move has just begun. i dont see any divergences in xau/hui/gold. sure there will be corrections. i just dont see one w/the data we have @this point. corrections are buying opportunities @this point. dharma
Metamucil Posted September 30, 2007 Report Posted September 30, 2007 HUI: I've been pondering this chart. A few things caught my eye. Most important is the lower trendline. Impulses move in a channel. With a possible 5 wave count, the trendline takes on very important significance. Second, there's a very pronounced support/resistance zone at about 358-368. It seems very likely it will be tested. Right now, a 38.2% retrace would hold at 357.42. The rally has been 25 days in duration. Thursday would be the (Fib) 34th trading day off the August 16th lows. It could be a pivot. It would tend to resolve the ambiguity between my incomplete impulse on the $GPX chart posted above and this chart. Right now the retracement zone is from 329.70 to 357.42. Like Meta says, if the chance to get on board this long-term rocket ride presents itself, it will be a "gift". The Fed has decided to re-flate the ecomony and "inflation and the dollar can be damned." Someday, I'll tell my grandson how I bought into the gold-rush of 2007. 611614[/snapback] BV, HUI 398.19 is resistance. 372 and 357.52 are strong supports below.....agreeing with one of your numbers, but derived differently. We'll soon know if this apparent reversal is merely a b of an abc, by watching 398.19? I'm just holding and adding more to dips.
dharma Posted October 1, 2007 Report Posted October 1, 2007 largest commercial short in a year on the cot. the large specs are long, very very long. correction on deck? dharma
hedonicprocto Posted October 2, 2007 Report Posted October 2, 2007 COTs and charts say a pullback is inn order. Everyone already seems to be waiting for that so either it doesnt come yet or it goes much lower here than most expect. I like BV's count: we will see a c down of an abc correction to the impulse we just had up.
Private Skidmark Posted October 2, 2007 Report Posted October 2, 2007 Looks like all-time closing daily highs for HUI and XAU and tie of all-time high for GDX? But my stocks were laggards today (TRE, SLW, RGLD). Expecting a correction but holding full long. I'm solidly in the "any correction here is a gift" camp. I might consider buying on margin if that correction comes. I'd probably stick to a diversified vehicle like GDX.
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