Academia Tiptoes Towards Relevance

[Basho]

Ran across this in my web travels and thought a few other stoolies might enjoy the trip.

 

http://www.ess.ucla.edu/faculty/sornette/p....asp#prediction

[stormydaze]

I wonder how closely this follows Doc?

 

Fig. 3 shows the predictions of the future of the US S&P 500 index applying the so-called ``zero-phase'' Weierstrass-type function. The continuous black line is the forward prediction using all the data from Aug.9,2000 to Jan.16,2003, while the dashed black line is the retroactive prediction using the data from Aug.9,2000 to Aug.24,2002. Both lines are reconstructed and expolated from the fits to a six-term zero-phase Weierstrass-type function. We also present the two previous fits (red lines) performed on Aug.24,2002 (shown in Fig. 1) for comparison. The blue dots show the daily price evolution from Aug.9,2000 to Jan.16,2003.

 

 

http://arxiv.org/abs/physics/0301023

 

 

Tanks Basho

[Basho]

The maths is way beyond me, Stormy -- a failure I'm very happy to leave standing by the way! -- but I'd guess the correlation should be pretty good if only because they both seem to have nailed the major cycles in recent years.

 

Given that the larger boom/bust cycles are (IMHO) at root driven by shifts in mass psychology, it was interesting to find an academic zooming in on the same territory from a hard statistical angle.

 

Plus of course the 400-500 range nicely supports my current prejudices about where the first bear leg might end.

[Guest]

The correlation is quite good (between Doc's and Sornette's prediction), if you pay attention only to the major cycles. Doc, too, sees a major low in mid-2004. The difference is that Doc also watches many smaller cycles and is, therefore, much more precise in the near term.

 

Regards,

Vesselin