S&p

[Guest]

Long-term:

 

Near-term:

 

Source

 

Personally, I prefer the count he has marked as "alternative" (red on the first chart). Although I am getting worried that this supposed wave C of B has extended so much and that it might be 3 of 5, instead...

 

Another possible count:

 

Long-term:

 

Near-term:

 

Source

 

Comments?

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[Guest]

Hoo-boy... New highs for the Jokes, anyone?

 

Source

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[MrHankydoesWallStreet]

I am leaning more towards Dow in wave 5 and SP in wave 2 but lot's of different counts out there by lots of "experts"

 

If its a wave 2 can do a complete retrace and then some and still be a bear market!

 

I am trading the trend and not letting all the theory screw my head up and my trading!

 

SPY/QQQ FCS IT very bullish, ST short. I only position with the IT signal so in cash.

HUI/XAU FCS IT in cash.

 

Holding LT positions in EWA,EWJ,HSGFX,PSAFX,UNWPX.

 

Waiting for next long signal, telecom, semis,broadband, wireless, financials lookin good to go.

 

Good luck to all!

 

Hank

[Guest]

Soon after the bear market began, Prechter released this chart in one of his missives, outlining how, in general form, the bear market will proceed - without the dates, of course. Since then, I've been watching it and trying to fit the dates on it. Here is how it looks so far. If it is correct, we're on our way to new highs, folks, even if the bear market is still going on...

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[MrHankydoesWallStreet]

Vesselin,

 

I had not seen that one before from Prechter, thanks for sharing. I believe Neowave Nealy is calling for a similar very large degree non-directional market for some years but just a prelude to another big wave up. Extrapolating timewise it looks like it will be another 6-8 years to complete that nice symmetrical triangle but that's quite a stretch to prognosticate such a thing. Could take on many complex corrective wave forms as we are all too much aware of. Just look at the 1960-70 sideways bear market; what a crazy lookin thing it turned into compared to the many more common complex patterns!

 

We could be seeing a large wave 2, the power of this thing makes me think so Wave 2's most commonly retrace to FIB 50-62.8 area. We are almost to the 50 retrace of hypothetical wave 1 with incredible strength which make me believe 62.8 is not a stretch and there is also that potential of an almost complete retrace, oh my! Can NOT really claim the secular bear outlook is dead until the old SP high is taken out, but a strong Dow rally to new highs would almost have to precede such an event and financials MUST be leading the charge. Quite a feat ahead of them.

 

After much consideration of all the possible EW scenarios out there, I am leaning mostly towards this being wave 2 of a 5 wave bear.

 

Some calling it a 3 wave bear and this is a big wave B.

So far this corrective wave has not had B wave character AT ALL.

I have shown many charts of B-waves and how to "sniff them out" as Connie Brown likes to say. VERY CHOPPY and the mOST DIFFICULT TO TREND TRADE. in indices SECTOR ROTATION ERRATIC, most always an A-B-C but often difficult to define subwaves.

OScillators esp RSI gives the bowl- shaped pattern then POP as Wave C emerges.

 

Just my feel for things!

 

We should have a lot of trouble here @ .50 and I think will get in a longer sideways market for several months and then either a top and reversal and end of wave 2 or one more thrust to .62 or higher. Election years tend to be bullish overall and weak early, strong later. The decennial cycle gives year 4 a downward bias. My cycle composite waveform is choppy with overall bullish year here. So I am favoring another positive year and more upside to wave 2 but probably not much, my chart has some very optimistic arrows pointing up due to my "superBOOM" mentality of late.

 

Hank