ThorAss Posted August 26, 2003 Report Posted August 26, 2003 As promised here is my latest project, a market timing thread using mostly the Holdrs and Spdrs. Overall, a number of spinning tops were formed here and there, and in others price declines stopped right at support and bounced so caution is the order of the day. A number of defensive suctors moved to neutral from down which is not a positive for the market. The PMS is showing caution for a positive downturn. Europe has gone negative which is another bad sign as they often lead. More bad news is the semis and technology proxies confirming down Monday. A positive development was a bounce in the banks, financials and retail. Summary: Short tech related stocks and suctors. Main indices in a new downtrend. Caution is advised as the signals are not strong. The charts for all of the below issues can be found on the last 4 pages at: DrAu's Pubic Fart Lisp Let us know if you have any interest in this work. Makes little difference to me because this is work I will do anyway and it only takes a few minutes to post an update and it helps me to consolidate my ideas. Ta, Thor PS: I've just added energy and real estate using i Shrs DJ (IYE and IYR). Energy seems to have turned down Friday from a nice up trend since Aug 5. Real Estate looks the most promising short especially with one more down day. Check out the chart. Been in a downtrend since Jul 31 top. Broke major support Monday, closed at minor H&S support. Break that and it's a long long way down. PPS: If anyone has any more ideas for suctors to cover in this way, please share them with me. Some obvious misses are Transports and Defense.
The brown one Posted August 26, 2003 Report Posted August 26, 2003 Tanks Thor for the "referral" from IDSWM. It is interesting that the majority of indicators are pointing down. I just can't help the sort of gut feeling that this year everything is in reverse ie not what everyone expects. August/Sept/Oct are SUPPOSED to be crappy months for the market and therefore the put open interest is very high. Never works out that way-when everyone expects!
The brown one Posted August 26, 2003 Report Posted August 26, 2003 Just viewed our index AEX and DAX and indicators on both dily and weekly slow stochs are in serios nose-bleed territory and have been for some time. RSI is also at high levels on the day charts,whereas on SPX it's much lower. Don't think it can go up much more from here but yoneverknow.
Guest Posted August 26, 2003 Report Posted August 26, 2003 Thor, Please put me down for some interest in your work. I greatly appreciate you sharing and sincerely hope you keep this place going.
5thelement Posted August 26, 2003 Report Posted August 26, 2003 Thor: The volumes on those AMEX sector holder stocks like IYE, IYR, Wirless Holders etc, the volumes on these are so low compared to SMH(semis) that do you actually dare to short them. I tend to only like stocks that sell in millions of shares per day to short so that there's plenty of liquidity to cover and also so that it's harder for the MMs to manipulate, especially, the higher the prices, it takes more $$ to manipulate the stock. love your public fart list
ThorAss Posted August 26, 2003 Author Report Posted August 26, 2003 Thor: The volumes on those AMEX sector holder stocks like IYE, IYR, Wirless Holders etc, the volumes on these are so low compared to SMH(semis) that do you actually dare to short them. I tend to only like stocks that sell in millions of shares per day to short so that there's plenty of liquidity to cover and also so that it's harder for the MMs to manipulate, especially, the higher the prices, it takes more $$ to manipulate the stock. love your public fart list That's PUBIC FARTS Thanks for the responses. I'll try to keep this running. Excellent points 5th and I've been considering that. First of all at least one or two are trading below $5.00 so no shorting on those which is a bit of a handicap for a bear like me. Also as you so rightly pointed out low volume on some is a problem. Those that have sufficient volume can be played with directly as in the SMH. Those that can not, I will try to find stocks within the suctors to play. I will also tend towards the more volatile suctors when there is a general market decline (as now?) My screen has a cut-off of 100,000 shares per day based on a 20 day average. This is a bit light I'll admit but my theory was not to miss out on some goodies because of a bit of volume.
5thelement Posted August 26, 2003 Report Posted August 26, 2003 I wanted to short more SMH or AMAT last Friday but the huge volume that day scared me off. I'm thinking the selling of SMH is done for now at $35 but I'd love to get a chance to short at above $37 again. BRCM would've been another great short last Friday but today's the day to cover me thinks. I doubt that I would've held shorts from last Friday this long even if I had pulled the trigger. Selling volumes on my fav tech shorts on drying up, they'll bounce it right into end of month for a Labour Day comeback next week into re-testing last Friday's highs. Glad I'm long miners as they are easy right now to watch and hold compared to trying to find stuff to short. Learned a good lesson, don't play too much in August except for finding good points to go long on miners. Last Sept we had a minor high miners before selling off into October, will it be a repeat and will the broad indexes also do a repeat performance from last Fall 2002 of a nosedive into October?? Perhaps way too many people are looking for October lows and we should consider Sept lows for broads with October for new highs
anjing bau Posted August 26, 2003 Report Posted August 26, 2003 http://www.traders-talk.com/site/mb/show_t...8849&folderid=1 stickan is bearish......
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