|
10 Minute Bar Charts 5/10/02 Dow Jokes Inflatables
Archives 12/30/01, 1/1/02, 1/2/02, 1/3/02, 1/4/02, 1/7/02, 1/8/02, 1/09/02, 1/10/02, 1/11/02, 1/14/02, 1/15/02, 1/16/02, 1/17/02, 1/18/02, 1/22/02, 1/23/02, 1/24/02, 1/25/02, 1/28/02, 1/29/02, 1/30/02, 1/31/02, 2/1/02, 2/4/02, 2/5/02, 2/06/02, 2/7/02, 2/9/02, 2/11/02, 2/12/02, 2/13/02, 2/14/02, 2/16/02, 2/19/02, 2/20/02, 2/21/02, 2/23/02, 2/25/02, 2/26/02, 2/27/02, 2/28/02, 3/1/02, 3/04/02, 3/05/02, 3/06/02, 3/7/02, 3/10/02,3/11/02, 3/12/02, 3/13/02, 3/14/02, 3/15/02, 3/18/02, 3/19/02, 3/20/02, 3/21/02, 3/22/02, 3/25/02, 3/26/02, 3/28/02, 3/30/02 4/1/02, 4/2/02, 4/3/02, 4/4/02, 4/6/02, 4/8/02, 4/9/02, 4/10/02, 4/11/02, 4/13/02, 4/15/02, 4/16/02, 4/17/02, 4/18/02, 4/20/02, 4/22/02, 4/23/02,4/24/02,4/25/02, 4/26/02, 4/27/02, 4/29/02, 4/30/02 5/01/02, 5/2/02, 5/4/02, 5/6/02, 5/07/02, 5/8/02, 5/09/02
|
The Anals of Stock ProctologyPublished 5 times
per week by the American Academy of Stock Proctology and Afternoon Update 5/13/02- Have the bulls won this round? Is the 10-13 week cycle bottoming? The 5 day cycle ozzies are now on the cusp of an upturn. The one day cycle high has shifted over to the right half of the time cycle, indicating that longer waves could be heading up. Upside cmaps on the 1 day cycle now look something like Nas 1650, SPX 1075 and NDX 1237. We're there, except for the SPX. There are unmet downside cmaps on the 5 day cycle of Nas 1570, SPX 1048 and NDX 1175. If the 5 day cycle is still heading down, the market will start to sell off over the next hour. At this writing, the 5 hour cycle ozzies are starting to turn down. That down phase should last an hour at least, and should clarify where things stand. This is an "interesting" moment to say the least. 11 AM 5/13/02 This rally looks like the post peak reaction in the 8 day cycle. Cmaps on this move are 1636 Nas, 1066 SPX, and NDX 1230. Five hour cycle high is due between now and noon. No indication indication of change in 8 day cycle down phase. Next update at 1 PM. Pre Market 5/13/02- Day of Reckoning As the market closed Friday, all cycles shorter than 5 days were trending. The first cycle for which it's possible to make cmaps is the 5 day cycle, the low of which is due Monday. The projected lows are 1550 on the Nas, 1033 on th SPX and 1140 on the NDX. If those projections are correct, the minimums for the 8 day cycle lows, due Wednesday, are Nas 1475, SPX 1027, and NDX 1025. This was written Sunday night, as I'll be out of touch Monday morning until late. At 7 AM the fucutures have turned down after drifting slightly higher during the night. My feeling at this point is that even a rally in the futures would not change these projections. We'll see. See you around mid-day. Weak End Anals (5/11/02) This market has a bleak feel about it. While the 10-13 week cycle is in a bottom phase, it could last a week or more, and end with a bang to the downside. The failure of Wednesday's rally was psychologically devastating and there are big liquidity issues. The Fed isn't helping matters any. They say there's no real estate bubble, but it seems clear they are hellbent on draining liquidity from the system. As long as this policy is in place, the market will head lower with a vengeance. As the long term charts below show, this bear market does not seem like it's going to end any time soon. The Feed pumped in $2.1 billion in a 6 day repo today. That left $400 million from yesterday's overnight repo, and $850 million in matured T-bills, unrefunded. So we have a two day net drain of roughly $1.2 billion on top of a drain of $6.4 billion in the prior 5 days. The stock market is starved for liquidity, and, as we know, no feed, no jam. Until we see massive feeding by the Fed, or a major liquidation of stocks, whatever rallies that do come along will be unsustainable. Dow Inflatables
The 8-13 day cycle oscillator remains negative. It now seems reasonably certain that Wednesday was a blowoff in a 13 day cycle sideways up phase that began on April 29. The 4-5 week cycle oscillator is still up, in what also seems to be a sideways up phase that's going nowhere. The 6-7 week oscillator is heading due east, but is below zero, and that will not do the market any good, especially if the indicator should turn lower from this level. The 10-13 week cycle is in a trough, and is barely rising. IF this phase is going to turn up in real terms, it needs to do it soon. Doc has agreed not to use the "C" word for awhile, but a downturn in the 10-13 and 6-7 week oscillators from these levels would be disastrous. We need to watch them closely. With the 13 day cycle turning down, the projection for the 13 day cycle is in the 9650-9800 range. This is either the early stages of a weak sideways up phase in the 10-13 week cycle or the final days of the bottoming process. The important thing is that there is no sign of a meaningful upturn, and things could get worse over a window of a week or so. Portfolio Sphincters Index (SPX) and Sentiment The secular trend channel (pink)
is pointing to a low of around 1000 on the SPX weekly chart, but it's
early. The downslope should steepen. At key intermediate lows, the lower
trend projection is usually broken by 50 to 100 points. That's when a
market is truly Dover Sole. The 18 month-2year cycle channel (brown)
is also likely to accelerate to the downside. The four year cycle channel
(green) continues to head lower at a constant clip as it heads for a date
with the sub 900 area. The SPX lost another 18 on Friday. The 17 day rate of change, a proxy for the 6-7 week cycle, is moving in a narrow, flat band, in negative territory, in what should be an up phase. This has extremely bearish implications if the line does not emerge to the plus side. The 6-7 week cycle oscillator superimposed on the chart also remained negative. It told us not to believe the rally, and it was right. The 29 day rate of change, representing the 10-13 week cycle, still hasn't flashed a buy signal. The 10-13 week cycle low was due, and we were looking for it, but why is there no confirmation from the indicators? The bottoming phase is probably under way, but it could last another week or even two weeks, during which time the market will remain vulnerable to a vertical spike. The VIX rose to 25.03 from 24.36 Thursday. On the inverted scale chart, VIX remains in the center of the Stool Band, nowhere near the levels of fear necessary to signal a significant bottom. Doc made an adjustment to the duration of the Stool Band in order to give better signals for the 10-13 week cycle. At the end of April the index reached a level indicating an imminent upturn in the 10-13 week cycle. So we are either in a sideways up phase in the 10-13 week cycle or about to make a low. The Stool Band is now beginning to bend down. When the indicator goes through the lower blue band, that's when we'll be looking at a big fat bottom. A sizable intermediate rally probably won't come until the index is below the lower band, or now a reading above 32, and perhaps more, depending on where the projection heads once the top phase rollover is complete. The blue channel lines are the extension of a linear regression channel from the February and May 2001 highs.
The 5-6 month and 10-13 week cycle oscillators in the cycle chart below have turned flattish, but this is not the same as turning up. The trend is confirmed until the direction of the lines actually reverses. The short cycle oscillator has started to top out. It is lagging the cycle slightly, but it indicates we could see three or four days of weakness ahead. The Trading Stoolicator stayed in a trough. It bears repeating that this is not a reversal signal until both lines turn up. The fact that the lines are still trending lower, however slightly, and are still below neutral, is confirmation that downside forces still have the upper hand. The two day decline has progressed far enough to give some renewed downside projections. The 10-13 week cycle low phase which is now under way has a projection of 1040. But shorter cycles are pointing lower with the 13 day cycle projection as low as 1010. I know that everyone is wondering if the market might crash from here. The centered moving average projections are not forecasting it, a crash is never an event that can be considered probable, but historically, those rare occasions when crashes have occurred have occurred from similar conditions. Crashes take place when a cycle trough appears to be in place but key support does not hold. Under those conditions there can be an event of that magnitude. For short side traders this condition is very seductive, and very dangerous. If you bet on it, and bet wrong, you can get your clock cleaned and lose all of your trading stake. (From one who's been there.) Of course, if you're right, you won't ever need to do another trade. Either way, it could be your
last trade. The choice is yours. As always, if you decide to take
the risk, listen to your Uncle Stool. Use protection. Fibo support is at 1049, 1035, and 1024.
There's been lots of talk about the putzcall ratio lately on the Stool
Pigeons Wire. This indicator is dead neutral. The 17 day moving average is
nowhere near the level necessary to signal an good intermediate bottom.
The kind of extreme fear usually seen at key bottoms would be indicated by
a sustained move well above 1.0 on a daily basis, and to .96 or higher on
the 17 day moving average (blue line). The Cycle Conditions tables include cycle phase and a wild guess as to number of periods to the next turn, in days for the shortest cycles, weeks (W) or months (M) for the longer ones. This is a fluid exercise, in other words, the projections are likely to be wrong, but they force us to be vigilant for key turning points, and frequently work well enough to prevent costly misreadings. SPX Cycle Conditions as of 5/10/02
PTT - Periods Till Turn Nasgap Charts The lower
secular trend channel (pink) projects to the 1500 area. This projection is
based on a centered moving average that lags the data substantially, and
could accelerate to the downside in the weeks ahead. The basis of the four
year cycle channel (green) has less of a lag, and it has been declining at
a constant rate for nearly two years. The low band of that channel is now
well below 1000. The 18 month-two year cycle channel (brown) is also
headed for sub 1000 any time between the fourth quarter of this year and
the first quarter of 2003. The Nas plunged 50, on top of 46 Thursday. The shorts all got blown out Wednesday and weren't there to provide buying support the last two days. Those that still had cash were probably too beaten up to get right back on that old short horse. The 5-6 month cycle oscillator is stuck in neutral in what Doc believes is the final days of a big cycle top phase. The 10-13 week cycle
oscillator's overall pattern is still down. Doc's composite trading stoolicator
is beginning to form a trough. Both lines need to head up to confirm the
rally. Wave band
resistance held in the 1710-20 area. Cycle wave band projections indicate
support beginning around 1540 down to 1500. If that is cleared, then we
may in fact be witnessing an event of explosive stockarhea by portfolio
sphincters. Fibo support is at 1565, 1545, and 1480.
Nasdaq Cycle Conditions as of 5/10/02
PTT
- Periods Till Turn The weekly
chart suggests the uptrend in yield is intact but moving very slowly. The intermediate
corrective phase could go on for months with long bond yields in a flat
trend. Retail Wall Street has been touting retail for months, claiming that the retail stocks are in a bull market. As usual, Wall Street is fulla bull. The retail sector is a defensive group that's going nowhere, and looks very much to be under long term distribution.
On the
weekly long term view, the dirty SOX have been in the process of
reversing an intermediate uptrend the past few weeks. It's headed for 400,
and ultimately should break below 300 before this major cycle ends. The other
thing Wall Street loves is Small Cap. Doc thinks the Rusty 2000
will tank to 350 before this four year cycle bottoms late this year or
early next year. The Street got all excited in April when the Rusty broke
the 2001 high. Stoolies know this was a classic WHOPsaw, a market maker
engineered breakout above a major resistance level which lasts just long
long enough to suck everybody in before they flush. General Custer has
already broken the lower secular trend band (pink) on the weekly chart.
This is either the greatest buying opportunity in a generation, or GE is
headed for the low 20s. Doc votes for the latter. The secular trend
channel projection will be proven to be heading lower than the current
projection. Doc bases this conclusion on the trend of the intermediate
oscillator- lower highs and lower lows. Over time, each rally has been
weaker, and each selloff stronger. This is major distribution in
action. The lower secular trend
band on Microprice is already in the low 40s. It will get there and then
some. If you have an idea for a Stock O', send it to [email protected]. Include some original reason for why you think the stock is deserving. Be clever! Anything longer than 25 words- automatic disqualification! And please, no penny stocks. Feel free to request follow-ups too. Uncle Buck's Illness Uncle
Buck's long term condition is now critical. Once he breaks 114, he'll head
for an almost certain test of 100 in the months ahead. Intermediate
support is at 110. Buck has started to track the stock market closely the
last few months. What's that tell you? The hot money is leaving
town. Golden Stool The long term gold chart
shows no break in the uptrend. The intermediate oscillator needs to be watched
however. So far no problem, but we want it to stay on an upward track. The daily chart of the gold
stocks is also a little shaky. There's a clear loss of mo, and a downturn
in the oscillators would signal a corrective phase lasting 2-4 weeks. It
could be either a trading range, or a brief dip. So far it's nothing to
worry about, but should be watched day to day. See you in Intraday Stool. Dr. Stepan N. Stool Let me know what you think on the Stool Pigeons Wire. Previous complete issue with all features Welcome To New Subscribers Welcome, and thank you for subscribing to the Anals of Stock Proctology. You may note some subtle differences in style now that this is no longer a free service. The perspective is still bearish, but it will have a more balanced approach than my message board ravings. You won't see me screaming "BUY" about anything except perhaps gold, but you will see stronger indications of areas and times when I think it might be a good idea to avoid being short. And I promise that I will lose my temper from time to time to keep you entertained! There's also a new feature, Doc's By Request Stock O' The Day. If you have a stock you're interested in, send an email to [email protected], naming the stock, and why you think Doc should look at it, in 25 words or less. 26 words, and you're disqualified! Those that look interesting, Doc will try to feature here within the next day or two. If you have suggestions about other features you'd like to see, send them along to [email protected]. Again, thanks for subscribing!
Explanation of Intraday Commentary-Build charts at http://www.livecharts.com. For custom time bars insert a comma after symbol and number of minutes, e.g. compx,90. This will give you a bar chart of the Nas with 90 minutes per bar. The one day cycle is usually most clear with 8 minute bars and 26/18 stochastics. It varies from day to day. Sometimes 6 minutes works best. Experiment to find the best fit for your trading style, and the market's dominant frequency at the time. The goal here is primarily to monitor the condition of the 8 and 13 day cycles. I typically use 90 minute bars with 26/18 stochastics for the 13 day cycle proxy on the indices during regular trading hours. Other cycles use 26/18 stochastics with the following: 8 days- 60 minute bars On the 24 hour futures charts, use a time per bar approximately 3 to 4 times the above number of minutes, to represent the cycles listed above. ABBREVIATIONS: cma: centered moving average |
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_nasdaq_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent XAU from www.kitco.com]](http://www.weblinks247.com/indexes/idx24_sp500_en_2.gif)
![[Most Recent Quotes from www.kitco.com]](http://kitconet.com/charts/metals/gold/t24_au_en_usoz_2.gif)
Chart Powered by METASTOCK (Sorry about the bull.)
Chart Powered by METASTOCK
