IDS World Markets Fri 2nd September 05

[Guest]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://quote.yahoo.com/m2?u

[Guest]

 

 

 

http://money.cnn.com/markets/morning_call/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.kitco.com

 

Energy futures

[Hiding Bear]

Colonial Pipeline ramps up - little by little :

 

Colonial Pipeline has successfully completed restart of Main Lines 1 and 2 and safely resumed partial service around 6:00 p.m. Wednesday, August 31, 2005. Original estimates of 25% to 35% of normal operational capacity for initial return to service have been exceeded, and Colonial is now operating at about 40% capacity.

 

With the return to service of additional electrical power in Mississippi later today, Colonial anticipates that it will be able to operate at approximately 61% of normal capacity by the end of today (Thursday, 9/1/05.) Both gasoline and distillates are currently being transported and delivered.

 

With additional restoration of electrical service as well as connection of distributed generation equipment currently en route to Mississippi, Colonial anticipates that it will be able to achieve approximately 74% of normal operating capacity by Sunday, and 75% to 86% by early or mid-next week.

 

http://www.colpipe.com/press_release/pr_74.asp

 

75% deliveries still means severe shortages.

[Hiding Bear]

The situation as reported by the EIA today:

 

There have been many reports in the media of gas stations in various parts of the country that are out of gas. While EIA does not monitor supplies at individual stations or localities, there are some reasons why this may be occurring at selective stations. With about 2 million barrels per day of refining capacity shut in or reduced due to Hurricane Katrina, approximately 1 million barrels per day (42 million gallons per day) of gasoline is not being produced. This represents about 10 percent of the nation's consumption, and is a major drop in the normal flow of gasoline through the system. In addition, major pipelines originating in the Gulf of Mexico area (namely the Plantation and Colonial product pipelines and the Capline crude oil pipeline) have been severely impacted or are closed. As a result, the distribution of gasoline, particularly in the Gulf Coast, Midwest, and East Coast regions of the country, has been significantly affected. Localities that were being served from gasoline terminals which already had low inventory levels, perhaps because they were expecting a delivery in the near future, could run out of supply before the next delivery arrives. Other areas which did have plenty of inventories on hand prior to the loss of the refineries and pipelines will be able to withstand the loss of supply for a longer time. However, it is impossible for EIA to know which terminals were well supplied and which ones were not prior to Hurricane Katrina, since EIA does not collect inventory data for individual terminals. But as soon as these stations are able to receive additional gasoline, they should be able to re-open.

 

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/eia1_katrina.html

[Hiding Bear]

I have a bad feeling that Wall Street will be more concerned tomorrow morning with small changes in expectations in the Labor report on unemployment, than on the sudden loss of one milliom workers.

 

The recession is already on, the post 9/11 recovery is finished. A drop in energy supplies, not to mention the sudden loss of one million jobs, will instantly reduce economic activity.

 

There is nothing that Bernanke at the White House can do about that, although he apparently doesn't believe that (he said "I expect it's going to be absorbed easily" in regards to the Katrina catasthophe). If The Maestro doesn't start expanding the Fed's monetary base Friday, or at the latest Tuesday, the economy may start to fall much faster than they would ever expect. With gasoline heading towrds $4 gallon, home buyers may have second, third, and fourth thoughts about buying that second home 100 miles away - or a first home 50 miles into the suburbs.

[Charmin]

Central Alberta... oil country

 

1.20 per liter is about 4.80 per gallon

[Hiding Bear]

Natural Gas bull market still has a long way to go:

 

There are reports that Hurricane Katrina may have damaged four natural gas processing facilities on the Gulf Coast with a combined capacity of 5.5 Bcf per day, which is the equivalent of almost 10 percent of total national production. Follow-up reports have not indicated expected outages longer than a few weeks, with many units expected on line within a few days. A full assessment of some facilities, however, will require onsite inspections. If these or other plants are inoperable for any length of time, the loss could delay a recovery of natural gas production in the area. Even if platforms and pipelines are either unaffected or readily restored to service, the gas often can't flow to market without treatment. In 2003 (the latest year with complete data), almost three-fourths of total U.S. marketed gas production was processed prior to delivery to market.

 

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/special/eia1_katrina.html

[Guest]

 

Things not so cheery today and I don't think it's just the New Orleans thing. It's the implications of fuel shortages et al which is beginning to worry a few. The index also closed at technical resistance yesterday. All Ords -0.4% with Energy leading, +0.6%. Telecoms down the most, -1.4% but Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples also taking a hit, -1.2% and -1% respectively.

 

BHP and RIO are flat today but the gold producers are flying. Gold cracked the $440 level last night so with luck it'll stay above that.

 

Oils are green. Caltex up a massive 7.8%, must be some good news on that one.

 

Asia opened up but sank almost immediately.

[Hiding Bear]

Central Alberta... oil country

 

1.20 per liter is about? 4.80 per gallon

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Ouch!

 

It was a $1.60/$1.70n a gallon in the NE US earlier this year, as compared to $3/$3.5 today, and probably $4 next week.

[Guest]

The US must find extra oil refining capacity . . . fast

 

America is in a frantic search for supplies of gasoline (petrol) after the great storm. One million extra barrels must be imported every day to keep the economic wheels spinning and the cost will be borne, not just by Americans, but Europeans and ultimately by the fuel poor of Africa and Asia.

 

In several states there is panic buying, a human reaction to rumours of shortages. In Rotterdam, the cost of unleaded gasoline is scaling new peaks as Europe is sucked into America?s energy distress. There is no escape from this vast web of oil, a complex chain of command that links oil well to petrol pump and that is under enormous strain.

[Charmin]

At this point.. pleading for crude at $60 might be for beggars.... but beggars can't be choosy...

 

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1125628345.png

 

Meanwhile, it appears the dollar has gotten a tad below the prior low of 86.69... just the value of a dollar falling might support the price of crude for awhile...

[Charmin]

Central Alberta... oil country

 

1.20 per liter is about  4.80 per gallon

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

Ouch!

 

It was a $1.60/$1.70n a gallon in the NE US earlier this year, as compared to $3/$3.5 today, and probably $4 next week.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

I travelled across the country this summer from New Hampshire though Ontario, upper penninsula Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota and down into the corner of Iowa and back...

 

in JULY

 

from my recollections

USA side... Cornwall, Ontario was 2.34

Ontario ranged from .91 to 1.01 liter

Wisconsin around 2.40

Minnesota about the cheapest at 2.19 mid July

New Hampshire Aug. 5 was around 2.30

 

this WEEK gas within 30 miles has gone from 2.47 to 2.99-3.11

 

I just filled up at the cheapest place around... 2.83... probably won't last for long

 

and what did all the presidents men do.... jack...!*$#

[Charmin]

Notice any symbols in Thursday's momo list... feeding on the fuel...

 

ASTE BCON BDCO BMD BR BSM BTJ CELL CHK CLHB CPST DECT ECA ENER ENY EOG FTO FUEL GERN GI GLGC GV HOM IPII LUFK MCEL NGS NOV NTG RES RTK SIRF SOSA SSL STO STV SUN TRE TSO TTES TWIN TXU UHCP USG USLM VIVO VLO -

 

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/cq?d=v1&s=ASTE+...G+USLM+VIVO+VLO

[Guest]

This one's for AussieBear...Andy Xie's column on worldwide bubbles...

 

Fun facts:

 

Ratio of Australia stock market cap to GDP b/w 1985-1995---37%

Ratio in 2005: 120%

Ratio of Australia housing value to GDP in 1995---176%

Ratio in 2005---337%

 

Ratio of US housing value to GDP in 2005---160%

Highest prior level---130% in 1989

Average during 1990s---120%

Average from 1950-1999---105%

 

Ratio of US stock market cap to GDP in 1Q2000---160% (more than double historical levels)

 

 

 

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/diges...ue.html#anchor0

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

 

 

Thanks dmm, certainly puts things in perspective hey....

[Guest]

Fair bit of discussion on the NO situation on yesterday's thread...

 

My 10c worth, albeit with 20/20 hindsight: the problem as I see it was not enforcing the evacuation order. Those who could leave, did, but the others received no support at all. Megaphones atop vehicles driving the streets, a central phone-in centre to request assistance, free transport out and a stack of uniformed personnel would have gone a long way to mitigating the misery.