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Monthly Digger - August, 2005


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Posted
Added SSRI  @ 11.31 ..  Wish me luck..

 

Its a great entry point. 11.20 and 10.80 have been strong support at many times in the past. My average buy is about 11.50.

 

 

Looking at the HUI chart again, we have an ABC down from 220 to 200 for a 10% pullback, this could be the end of it. I had thought we were going to repeat the pattern of the previous couple pullback, but it looks like not.

Posted

Hooey Timing Model: ST very much in cash. LT in CASH but without primary confirmation but with enough evidence to support that position. I mean, the MACD turned down on the daily on Friday plus we had two short neck breaks at 214 and 207 since the top. Will we build another small neck at 200 then break it? Seems likely to me yet no confirmation from the model's all important 10/20 EMA which still hangs on grimly. And this is about the only excuse I can find for buying in here.

 

Anyway if you're obliged to pick something now, I'd go for strength as the turn-around candidates of late have been prone to sudden and intense flogging. Of course there has been an element of serial slaughter to the suctor this entire year at least. Anyway you might consider:

 

AZK

GG

MNG

RGLD

SA

SLW

TRE

 

...all holding above 20 dEMA. But with only about 1 in 4 stocks even acting this well it's hard to get too enthusiastic. I'm personally happy just to wait now for at least some evidence to suggest we might go up in earnest.

 

Dum di dum di dum.......

Posted
Added SSRI  @ 11.31 ..  Wish me luck..

 

Its a great entry point. 11.20 and 10.80 have been strong support at many times in the past. My average buy is about 11.50.

 

 

Looking at the HUI chart again, we have an ABC down from 220 to 200 for a 10% pullback, this could be the end of it. I had thought we were going to repeat the pattern of the previous couple pullback, but it looks like not.

 

I think we got maybe 10 more points of intraday risk in the HUI from here. If we can take out 190 I think we go much lower and I will be out.

Posted
Hooey Timing Model: ST very much in cash. LT in CASH but without primary confirmation but with enough evidence to support that position. I mean, the MACD turned down on the daily on Friday plus we had two short neck breaks at 214 and 207 since the top. Will we build another small neck at 200 then break it? Seems likely to me yet no confirmation from the model's all important 10/20 EMA which still hangs on grimly. And this is about the only excuse I can find for buying in here.

 

Anyway if you're obliged to pick something now, I'd go for strength as the turn-around candidates of late have been prone to sudden and intense flogging. Of course there has been an element of serial slaughter to the suctor this entire year at least. Anyway you might consider:

 

AZK

GG

MNG

RGLD

SA

SLW

TRE

 

...all holding above 20 dEMA. But with only about 1 in 4 stocks even acting this well it's hard to get too enthusiastic. I'm personally happy just to wait now for at least some evidence to suggest we might go up in earnest.

 

Dum di dum di dum.......

 

They make 'em look ugly before they turn 'em. 195 HUI should hold this move if not the bulls may have serious problems. The sentiment has gone from very bullish to cautious almost staining the bed. :o :lol:

Posted

Dharma - thanks for the kind words, but it seems your in a "what the hell do I care position".

Good for you, you can be wrong for a very long time. I don't consider 1/7 position very significant.

 

Ander - don't bank on 200 HUI holding.

 

Look folks, I'm feeling pretty GDamn negative today, hopefully that is ur contrary indicator.

 

That being said, this is a sector that never seems to rally for any significant period of time, with no conviction from its' bulls, and government/merchant banks that are always against its' success.

 

Year end or bust. Later gold kooks. I'll piss off for awhile. This time I promise.

Posted

XAU:

 

Failure to consolidate and rally here has very bearish implications.

 

If this turns into a 5 wave move, the decline will be much steeper as impulses travel in pairs (or threesomes).

 

Any further decline will violate P&F support and trigger a sell signal.

post-1352-1124933164_thumb.png

post-1352-1124933183_thumb.png

Posted
Trendline retest? :mellow:

 

Excellent observation.

 

HUI has a much stronger pattern than XAU. See the P&F chart.

 

I'm with you that the line in the sand is right here and right now.

 

I believe that a decline below 200 changes the box size to $2.00 from $4.00.

post-1352-1124944054_thumb.png

Posted
oh, it is death by a thousand cuts. this is going to take time, we bottomed in 01 top? we bottomed in 72 top in 80. its why i am not in a hurry. i have seen this act before. its going to take time. then when it goes parabolic, everyone raises their expectations and  forgets to get out. their #s for the market are too high. or they get out early, bite the bullet and get back in @the top. have a position that you can remain on an even keel w/.  but have it be big enough so if you are significantly right, you can not have to play for a while.  also, when it looks toppy, although the scraps will be significant, walk away and say thank you. i have about 1/7 of liquid net assets in gold/silver stocks.  i have about the same in the metals. if i lose it all, i still have enough to live for years. this is a really tough game. enjoy life, its not about worries.  hug your lover alot and often.  dharma

 

You got it all right dharma. ;)

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